Rating of the Most Reliable Bonds of Russian Issuers in 2025
Introduction
Bonds continue to enjoy considerable popularity among private investors, offering a combination of stable income and moderate risk. In Russia, key instruments include federal loan bonds (OFZ) and high-rated corporate bonds. In 2025, thanks to the stabilisation of key macroeconomic parameters and reduced volatility in financial markets, issuances demonstrating the highest level of reliability were identified. The rating takes into account data from local (ACRA, Expert RA) and international agencies (Moody’s, S&P), the history of debt servicing, liquidity, and issuance structure.
1. Criteria for Assessing Reliability
1.1. Credit Ratings of Issuers
One of the key indicators of reliability is the credit rating. Russian agencies ACRA and Expert RA assign ruble bonds categories from ruAAA to ruCCC, while international agencies Moody’s and S&P rate them from AAA to D. Papers rated ruAAA or with international ratings of BBB– or higher fall into the investment-grade category, which minimises the probability of default and confirms the issuer's stability.
1.2. History of Fulfilment of Obligations
A reliable issuer consistently pays coupons and redeems bonds without delays. OFZs have not experienced defaults throughout their history, while bonds of major banks and corporations such as Sberbank or Lukoil have only once adjusted their coupon payment structure, but have always fulfilled their obligations on time.
1.3. Liquidity in the Secondary Market
To assess liquidity, the average daily trading volume and the bid-ask spread are analysed. OFZs trade volumes exceeding 30 billion ₽ per day, allowing investors to promptly execute large orders. Significant corporate bond issuances from Gazprom and Sberbank ensure volumes of 500–700 million ₽, while smaller issuances may have lower turnover and a wider spread.
1.4. Yield to Maturity (YTM)
YTM considers all coupon payments and the difference between the purchase price and par value. Reliable issuances offer YTMs ranging from 6.9% (OFZ-26207) to 9.8% (NLMK BO-001P-04). This figure allows the investor to forecast and compare the yields of various securities in light of current market conditions.
1.5. Maturity and Duration
The maturity period determines the duration— a measure of the price sensitivity of a bond to changes in interest rates. Short-term issues (1–3 years) exhibit duration of up to 2 years, reducing interest rate risk. Long-term bonds (7–10 years) have a duration of 6–8 years and may lose up to 7% in price when rates rise. Investors are advised to consider duration when forming portfolios to balance risk and yield.
2. Top 15 Reliable Bonds
| Rank | Issuer / Issue | Type | Term | Rating | YTM | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OFZ-26225 | Government Bonds | 5.2 years | ruAAA | 7.1% | Very high |
| 2 | OFZ-26224 | Government Bonds | 7.5 years | ruAAA | 7.3% | Very high |
| 3 | OFZ-26207 | Government Bonds | 3.8 years | ruAAA | 6.9% | High |
| 4 | Sberbank BO-001P-02 | Bank | 4.1 years | ruAA | 8.0% | High |
| 5 | VTB-02 | Bank | 2.6 years | ruAA | 7.5% | Average |
| 6 | Gazprom BO-003P-01 | Corporate | 5.0 years | ruAA | 8.2% | Average |
| 7 | Lukoil BO-004P-01 | Corporate | 3.5 years | ruA | 8.5% | Average |
| 8 | Norilsk Nickel BO-002P-05 | Corporate | 6.2 years | ruA | 8.0% | Average |
| 9 | Rosseti BO-001R-03 | Corporate | 3.0 years | ruA | 9.0% | Average |
| 10 | Tinkoff BO-002P-01 | Bank | 2.0 years | ruBBB | 9.5% | Average |
| 11 | NLMK BO-001P-04 | Corporate | 2.8 years | ruBBB | 9.8% | Low |
| 12 | Magnit BO-001P-02 | Corporate | 5.5 years | ruBBB | 9.2% | Low |
| 13 | Inter RAO BO-001P-07 | Corporate | 4.2 years | ruBBB | 9.0% | Average |
| 14 | Rosneft BO-003P-02 | Corporate | 4.8 years | ruA | 8.7% | Low |
| 15 | Alrosa BO-001P-03 | Corporate | 3.3 years | ruBBB | 9.7% | Low |
3. Government OFZs
3.1. Sovereign Rating and Yield
OFZs possess a sovereign rating of ruAAA and BB+ (internationally), confirming their reliability. The floating coupon, tied to the central bank's key rate, with a premium of 1–2 p.p., provides a yield of 6.9–7.3%, preserving real savings amid inflation.
3.2. Investment Strategies with OFZs
For conservative investors, it is recommended to hold 50–70% of their portfolio in OFZs. Thanks to the floating coupon and constant demand in the secondary market, they ensure reliability and liquidity under any interest rate setting.
4. Bank Bonds
4.1. Sberbank and VTB
Sberbank BO-001P-02 and VTB-02 boast a rating of ruAA and a combination of high liquidity with yields of 7.5%–8%. Systemically important banks receive government support and remain resilient even during periods of crisis.
4.2. Tinkoff Bank
Tinkoff BO-002P-01, rated ruBBB with a yield of 9.5%, is a compromise between yield and risk. The bank's digital model ensures stable growth in the client base and cash flow, but the rating reflects competition and sector risks.
5. Blue Chip Corporate Bonds
5.1. Issuers from the Oil and Gas Sector
Issuances from Gazprom and Lukoil (ruAA/ruA, YTM 8–8.5%) remain among the most reliable owing to substantial investments and favourable export contracts. The cyclical nature of oil prices is mitigated through diversification among several issuers.
5.2. Metallurgy and Power Generation
Norilsk Nickel BO-002P-05 and Rosseti BO-001R-03 (ruA, YTM 8–9%) offer moderate yields with stable cash flow. The metallurgy and power sectors are sensitive to the economic cycle, hence it is advisable to keep both sectors in the portfolio for diversification.
6. Yield and Risk Ratio
6.1. Net Yield After Tax
The Individual Investment Account (IIS) enables an increase in the yield of OFZs to 8.7% due to the deduction of personal income tax (PIT). Corporate bonds bring a net yield of 8–9% after the 13% PIT, but brokerage fees and spreads might reduce the final profit.
6.2. Optimal Portfolio Structure
Recommended allocation: 50% OFZs, 30% high-rated corporate bonds (ruAA–ruA), 20% ruBBB issuances. This portfolio retains a balance between yield and reliability while minimising risks.
7. Practical Recommendations
7.1. Goal Setting
Clearly define investment horizons, acceptable risk levels, and desired yields to select an appropriate set of securities and rebalancing strategy.
7.2. Diversification
Allocate the portfolio between OFZs and corporate bonds from different issuers and maturities to mitigate sectoral and interest rate risks.
7.3. Monitoring and Rebalancing
Review the portfolio every 3–6 months, assessing changes in key rates, credit ratings, and trading volumes. Adjust the proportions of instruments according to current macroeconomic conditions.
7.4. Utilising Analytical Resources
Subscribe to reports from ACRA, Expert RA, and analytical reviews from brokers and rating agencies. Participate in webinars and conferences to acquire the latest information and make informed investment decisions.
