Russian Stock Market: Trading Results and Forecasts for Tomorrow
1. Trading Results and Dynamics of Key Indices
MOEX Index
The MOEX Index (IMOEX) concluded the session with a 0.4% increase to 3,210 points, approaching multi-month highs. Strong reports from Sberbank and Gazprom bolstered investor optimism. Technically, the index maintained the 3,200 points zone, reflecting support at the 50-day moving average, which underscores the potential for further growth.
RTS Index
The RTS Index decreased by 0.2% to 1,510 points amid the strengthening of the rouble to 79.2 ₽/$. The appreciation of the national currency makes dollar-denominated shares less attractive to non-residents, leading to an outflow of foreign capital.
2. Sectoral Overview
Banking Sector
The banking sector gained 1.2%, with Sberbank rising by 1.8% due to a 12% increase in fee income. VTB strengthened by 1.1% following reports of a reduction in non-performing loan debt and an increase in margin income.
Energy Sector
Oil companies Lukoil (+0.7%) and Gazprom Neft (+0.9%) were supported by resilient Brent prices above $82/barrel and OPEC+ agreements to maintain quotas.
Technology Sector
IT stocks remained under pressure: Mail.ru Group fell by 1.5% due to delays in the development of cloud solutions, while Yandex decreased by 0.8% amid expectations of reduced demand for digital advertising.
3. Trading Volumes and Liquidity
Total Trading Volume
The daily turnover on the MOEX reached 45 billion ₽, which is 8% above the average weekly level. The high activity is attributed to large transactions by institutional investors.
Foreign Capital
Non-residents net sold assets worth 2.8 billion ₽, reallocating funds to OFZs and gold, in response to the strengthening rouble and declining dollar dividend attractiveness.
Retail Investors
Private individuals purchased shares of MegaFon and Polymetal worth 4.5 billion ₽ in anticipation of high dividends and corporate events in the second half of the year.
4. External Drivers: Oil and Currencies
Brent Price
Brent crude rose by 0.5% to $82.3/barrel, driven by positive EIA data indicating a reduction in inventories and the potential extension of the OPEC+ deal.
Rouble Exchange Rate
The rouble appreciated to 79.2 ₽/$ and 85.7 ₽/€, supported by a Central Bank intervention of $200 million and a record influx of petrodollars.
Global Background
The S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the DAX increased by 0.4% in light of strong performance reports from Big Tech and data on industrial production in Germany. The support of Western markets benefits Russian stocks.
5. Macroeconomic Factors
Key Rate of the Central Bank of Russia
The Central Bank maintained its key rate at 9%. A reduction to 8% is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, provided inflation remains around 4.8%.
Expectations for the Fed Rate
Markets expect the first adjustment to the Fed rate only in the first quarter of 2026, which diminishes the attractiveness of dollar assets and supports interest in emerging markets.
Inflation in the USA
CPI slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in September, reducing the risk premium and increasing the appetite for risk assets.
6. Corporate News and M&A
Issuer Reports
Sberbank reported a profit of 670 billion ₽ (+15% year-on-year) and Gazprom indicated record gas supplies. Both stocks rose by 0.9% to 1.8%.
Mergers and Acquisitions
X5 Retail Group announced plans to acquire Magnit to optimise procurement and logistics. Shares of X5 increased by 2.3%, while Magnit rose by 1.5%.
Dividend Campaign
Nornickel announced dividends of 1,500 ₽ per share, attracting 'dividend' investors and supporting the sector with a gain of 0.7%.
7. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance for IMOEX: 3,220 and 3,250 points. Support: 3,180 and 3,150 points. A breakout above 3,220 points could pave the way to 3,300 points.
Technical Indicators
RSI on the daily chart is at 72, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD shows a bullish crossover, and volumes above average confirm the strength of the uptrend.
8. Analyst Forecasts and Investor Strategies
Growth Forecasts
Raiffeisen Bank forecasts a 1.5% increase in IMOEX, provided Brent stays above $80/barrel. Alfa-Bank recommends going long on Sberbank at 175 ₽ and Gazprom Neft at 380 ₽.
Hedging and Shorting
A breakout below 3,180 points would lead to shorting IMOEX, while purchasing put options on the RTS index may protect portfolios.
Individual Recommendations
Tinkoff Investments advises diversifying portfolios through IES, including high dividend yield stocks (Polymetal, Lukoil).
9. Forecast for Tomorrow
Morning Start
A growth in IMOEX of 0.3–0.5% is expected due to favourable EIA data on oil inventories, the Ministry of Finance's announcement regarding the placement of OFZs, and the rise in S&P 500 futures.
Key Factors
— EIA data on oil inventories.
— Ministry of Finance auction for OFZs.
— Dynamics of futures on Western indices.
10. Additional Factors and Expectations
Bond Market
OFZ yields rose by 5 basis points following the Ministry of Finance's auction of 50 billion ₽. Moderate demand reflects investor caution in the lead-up to upcoming elections.
Foreign Interest
Non-residents increased their share in Russian equities by 1.2% since the beginning of the month, indicating a recovery of trust in EM assets amidst stagnating yields in developed countries.
Sanction Risks
Expectations of tightening sanctions against energy companies have created short-term fluctuations, but positive corporate news and tax incentives have offset some of the pressure.
11. Long-Term Outlook and Strategic Trends
Dividend Driver
In a low key rate environment, investments in high dividend stocks (Polymetal, Sberbank) are becoming an alternative to bonds, offering stable passive income.
Digitalisation and ESG
Companies actively implementing digital services and adhering to ESG criteria are expected to attract capital, with examples including Tinkoff, Yandex, and PhosAgro.
Role of AI and Analytics
The use of artificial intelligence in trading strategies and market analytics facilitates more accurate forecasting and timely decision-making.
12. Conclusion
The Russian stock market is demonstrating both technical strength and fundamental support from oil and corporate reports. With the nearest resistance levels and indicators showing overbought conditions, a correction may be possible; nonetheless, long-term trends remain positive. Tomorrow, the main factors will be oil, OFZ placements, and the dynamics of global futures.
