On Tuesday, 28th October 2025, investors will be closely monitoring consumer confidence indices in Germany and the USA, US-China trade negotiations, as well as the quarterly results from major banks and fintech companies, including Sberbank, HSBC, Visa, and PayPal.
Tuesday promises a busy agenda for financial markets. The third day of the ASEAN summit is taking place in Malaysia, where world leaders are discussing economic integration, while trade negotiations between the US and China are ongoing to reduce mutual tensions. Simultaneously, investors are preparing for the release of key economic confidence indicators: in the morning, Germany will publish fresh consumer sentiment data, while in the evening, the US economic confidence figures will be released. European exchanges will react to the morning's corporate earnings reports from a number of large companies, while the US market will be focused on a series of significant quarterly results in the afternoon. Investors will need to align macroeconomic signals with corporate earnings to get a clearer picture of the economy and sentiment as the middle of the week approaches.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day — Turkey: National holiday, markets closed.
- All day — Malaysia: 3rd day of the ASEAN summit (discussing regional economic integration; US-China trade negotiations are taking place on the sidelines).
- 10:00 — Germany: GfK consumer confidence index (November).
- 16:00 — USA: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (August).
- 17:00 — USA: Conference Board consumer confidence index (October) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (October).
- 23:30 — USA: Weekly oil inventory data (API).
Europe: GfK Consumer Confidence Index
- The German GfK consumer sentiment index for November will be released early in the morning. A slight change in the indicator is expected compared to the previous month, indicating that consumer caution remains ahead of the holiday spending season. This indicator reflects the level of confidence among the German population in the economy, and its dynamics may affect assessments of retail sales and consumption prospects in the eurozone.
USA: Housing Market and Confidence Indices
- In the afternoon, attention will shift to US data. At 16:00 MSK, the S&P/Case-Shiller index for August will reveal changes in home prices in major US cities. Trends in the real estate market will illustrate the impact of high mortgage rates on property costs and household wealth.
- At 17:00 MSK, two indicators will characterise confidence in the US economy. The Conference Board consumer confidence index for October will reflect the level of confidence among American households regarding the current economic situation and the job market. Concurrently, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October will show the state of the industrial sector in the Mid-Atlantic region. Together, these figures will provide insight into how consumers and businesses feel as the fourth quarter begins.
Oil: API Oil Inventories
- Late in the evening, market participants will be watching statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) regarding commercial hydrocarbon inventories in the US. The API report, released at 23:30 MSK, serves as an early indicator ahead of the official EIA report published on Wednesday. A sharp change in inventories (such as a significant increase or decrease) could trigger price volatility in oil, which is important to both commodity markets and the currencies of oil-exporting countries.
Banking Sector: Sberbank, VTB, and HSBC
- The largest Russian banks will release their financial results, providing a snapshot of the state of the Russian banking system. Sberbank will publish its IFRS report for the first nine months of 2025, while VTB will report for the third quarter. Investors will analyse net profit dynamics, interest income, and lending volumes to understand how changing key rates and the economic environment are reflected in the banking sector.
- On the global stage, one of the leading international banks, HSBC (UK), will report its results for the third quarter. Due to its widespread presence in Asia and other regions, HSBC's indicators will shed light on global trends in the banking industry—from interest margin dynamics amid rising rates to the volume of reserves for potential loan losses.
Fintech and Digital Payments: PayPal and Visa
- The quarterly results of fintech industry leaders will come under scrutiny. PayPal (USA) will present its results amid fierce competition in the digital wallet and fintech services market. Visa (USA), the largest payment system in the world, will also report for this quarter; investors expect to see a rise in transaction volumes due to the recovery of international tourism and consumer activity. Commentary from both companies' management regarding future growth plans, the implementation of new technologies, and competition in the digital payments segment will be crucial.
Transportation and Logistics: UPS
- One of the key indicators for assessing global business activity will be the quarterly report from logistics giant United Parcel Service (UPS, USA). UPS's figures are traditionally viewed as a barometer of global trade: the dynamics of shipping volumes, especially in the express delivery and online retail segments, will illuminate the state of global supply chains. UPS management's forecasts regarding demand for delivery services until the end of the year will provide investors with insight into the stability of global economic recovery ahead of the holiday season.
Healthcare: UnitedHealth Group
- In the healthcare sector, market attention will be drawn to the report from UnitedHealth Group (USA)—the largest American company in the health insurance sector. UnitedHealth's results will reflect how the client base (number of insured) has grown and how medical expenses have changed in the past quarter. Investors also await management forecasts regarding the impact of healthcare legislative initiatives and drug prices on future financial performance. Positive results from UnitedHealth could bolster sentiment across the broader healthcare and insurance sector.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: On 28th October in Europe, a series of corporate results will emerge, setting the tone for trading. Among notable releases are reports from major companies such as HSBC (UK) and Novartis (Switzerland). These publications, alongside the GfK index data and expectations surrounding central banks' decisions, influence investor sentiment in the region. Positive earnings surprises from European companies could strengthen the Euro Stoxx 50, whereas disappointments or weak macro data might increase caution in the markets.
- Nikkei 225: In Japan, the third-quarter earnings season for 2025 is ongoing. A number of industrial corporations, technology producers, and automotive companies are publishing results reflecting domestic demand and export conditions. These figures will affect the dynamic of the Nikkei 225 index, taking into account the yen's exchange rate and the conditions in external markets. Strong results from export-oriented companies will support the Japanese market, while weak ones may increase volatility.
- MOEX (Russia): At the Moscow Exchange, the primary period for the publication of financial results for the first nine months of 2025 is concluding at the end of October. In addition to reports from Sberbank and VTB, investors will monitor the outcomes from other Russian issuers—from oil and gas and metallurgy companies to IT and retail representatives. The cumulative results of this earnings season shape expectations regarding the state of corporate profits in Russia and may influence the dynamics of the MOEX index.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Consumer Confidence Indices: The morning GfK index for Germany and the evening Conference Board/Richmond Fed indices for the USA will provide signals on consumer and business optimism. Unexpectedly strong data could increase risk appetite and support cyclical stocks, while deterioration in sentiment could amplify concerns regarding demand at the end of the year.
- Banking Results: The results from Sberbank and VTB will clarify trends in the Russian financial sector (profit dynamics, lending growth) and may impact the prices of banking stocks in Russia. The HSBC report will provide a global context—its profits and management's comments on Asian and European markets will be indicative for international banking stocks.
- Fintech Sector: The reports from Visa and PayPal will serve as barometers of activity in the electronic payment and e-commerce sectors. Strong growth in transaction volumes and optimistic management forecasts will support payment companies' shares, while weak results or cautious tones from management may dampen investors' interest in the sector.
- Global Trade: UPS's figures and forecasts will act as indicators of the state of global supply chains and logistics demand. Surprises in UPS's results could shift investor focus to the transportation sector and alter expectations regarding global trade: a strong quarter will bolster confidence in economic growth, while a weak one may signal a potential slowdown.
- Tactics and Risk Management: Considering the simultaneous release of a large block of data and reports, it is important to establish acceptable volatility bands and trigger levels for the portfolio in advance. It is prudent to use limit orders and hedging to protect positions from unexpected volatility during the day.
