Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting for 15 November 2025: Slowdown in China’s Economy, Results from JBS and Vallourec, Global Macro Trends, and Considerations for Investors.
Saturday brings a relative calm to the global markets: there are no significant macroeconomic publications scheduled for 15 November, and investors are taking this pause to reflect on the week’s events. The focus is on signals of a slowdown in the Chinese economy following the release of a series of statistics, and the concluding notes of the corporate earnings season. On the corporate front, several international companies released results even towards the end of the week, including the global meat processor JBS and the French steel pipe manufacturer Vallourec. In the absence of new data, it is crucial for investors to track the interconnections: for instance, how the slowdown in China will impact commodity markets and exporters, and what individual company reports reveal about the state of various sectors. The business environment of the day is calm, prompting market participants to concentrate on global trends and preparation for the upcoming events of the following week.
Macroeconomic Background
- USA: The American economic calendar has no significant releases on Saturday. US markets are digesting the already released data and news: due to the ongoing government shutdown, the publication of key statistics (including CPI inflation and retail data) has been delayed, depriving investors of reference points. After the conclusion of the primary wave of earnings reports, attention has shifted to external factors. The previous session on Friday ended with a sharp decline in stock indices (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.7–2.3% – the largest daily drop in over a month), reflecting investors' caution ahead of the weekend. In the absence of new macro data, market participants are relying on corporate forecasts and global signals, while also monitoring the situation with the budget in Washington.
- Europe: European markets on 15 November also do not receive fresh statistics. EU countries are not publishing macroeconomic indicators on that day, so the news backdrop is primarily shaped by external events. Eurozone investors are evaluating the data released throughout the week and signals from the ECB while also paying attention to the slowdown in China, as a cooling demand in Asia may affect European exporters (especially automobile and luxury goods manufacturers). In the upcoming week, new data on inflation and business activity is expected in Europe, so the current weekend is being utilised to reassess positions. Overall sentiment on European exchanges is neutral: without fresh drivers, the markets are following the dynamics of Wall Street and commodity prices.
- Asia: In the Asian region, Saturday passes without new reports – the major economies are not publishing indicators on 15 November. However, the recently released statistics from China (see section below) are already influencing sentiment: the slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in the Middle Kingdom heightens concerns about regional demand. Japan is preparing to release trade balance data for October at the beginning of next week, and a slight reduction in the deficit is anticipated amidst stabilising exports. The attention of Asian investors is gradually shifting to upcoming indicators (including Japan’s GDP for Q3) and possible stimulative measures from Chinese authorities. In the Asian markets, a wait-and-see approach prevails: without new data, they are focusing on existing information and currency movements, particularly the yen and yuan exchange rates.
- Russia: The Russian macroeconomic calendar for 15 November is empty – neither Rosstat nor the Bank of Russia planned any publications for that day. On 14 November, important inflation figures were released: consumer prices rose by only +0.5% m/m in October, while annual inflation slowed to approximately 7.7% (down from around 8.0% the previous month), significantly below expectations. This inflation slowdown, following a recent unexpected cut in the key interest rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 16.5% per annum, confirms the easing of price pressure in the economy. In the absence of new data over the weekend, Russian investors are focusing on the external backdrop – price dynamics for oil and metals, the ruble exchange rate, and the overall situation in global markets. This macroeconomic pause provides an opportunity to assess the effects of past regulatory measures and prepare for the statistics that will be released next week.
Slowdown in China's Economy
- China's industrial production in October grew by only +4.9% y/y, significantly down from September's +6.5%. This is the weakest growth rate in approximately 14 months, driven by weak external demand and the repercussions of trade frictions with the United States. The actual figures were worse than the consensus forecast (+5.5%) – the unexpected deterioration in the manufacturing sector has amplified concerns regarding the sustainability of China’s economic recovery in the final quarter of the year.
- Retail sales in China increased by +2.9% y/y in October, down from +3.0% the previous month. Despite a large sales promotional event (Singles' Day on 11.11), domestic consumer demand remains sluggish. The deceleration in retail growth indicates cautious behaviour among households: even significant discounts and stimulative measures have not yet led to an acceleration in consumption. Weak domestic demand, coupled with declining exports, is hindering economic growth in China and necessitating new support measures.
- The simultaneous weakening of two key drivers in China’s economy – industrial output and consumption – highlights a dual challenge for Beijing. With exports suffering from external barriers and internal spending growing sluggishly, authorities may resort to stronger stimulus measures (monetary or fiscal) and structural reforms. For global markets, news from China is critically important: the slowdown in China is already reflected in commodity prices (metals, oil) and adversely affects companies reliant on the Chinese market (from German automotive companies to Asian electronics manufacturers). Investors globally need to monitor China’s next steps closely, as the dynamics of the world's second-largest economy largely set the tone for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports
- JBS N.V. – the world’s largest meat processing company (Brazil) reported for Q3. JBS's global revenue grew by +13% year-on-year to $22.6 billion; however, net profit fell to $581 million (compared to $693 million a year ago). The margins in the business suffered primarily due to the situation in the US: JBS's American division faced negative margins in the beef segment amidst historically low cattle inventories and high prices for live cattle, which sharply increase processing costs. The company notes that the current downturn in the cattle breeding cycle in the US will continue to pressure profitability in the coming quarters. At the same time, JBS’s Brazilian business is demonstrating resilience: sales in Brazil have significantly increased thanks to exports (the country remains the largest beef exporter) and rising meat prices in the domestic market. Nevertheless, even in its home country, the company is facing temporary challenges – due to a reported avian influenza case in the spring, several countries imposed bans on the import of poultry products, forcing JBS to redirect supplies and lower prices on some categories. Investors view the report from JBS as an indicator of the state of the agribusiness sector: on one hand, global demand for proteins remains high (revenue growth), while on the other hand, costs and raw material inflation in certain regions constrain profitability. Attention will be directed to management's comments on the prospects for margin recovery in North America and whether additional measures for increasing efficiency are planned amidst expensive raw materials.
- Vallourec S.A. – the French manufacturer of steel pipes for the oil and gas and industrial sectors reported results in line with expectations. EBITDA for the third quarter rose by +12.3% y/y to €210 million, falling precisely within the upper forecast range previously announced by management (€195–225 million). The improvement in financial results is attributed to the growth in volumes and average sales prices of pipe products, alongside the implementation of cost savings programmes. The profitability of Vallourec's iron ore mining and forestry business has also improved, thanks to the expansion of its own mining operations, contributing to EBITDA. For the first time, the company provided a forecast for the entirety of 2025: anticipated EBITDA in the range of €799–829 million is only slightly below last year's level (€832 million). In fact, Vallourec expects fourth-quarter profits to be comparable to third-quarter results, continuing a stable trajectory. A significant event for Vallourec was the recent contract with Petrobras: the French company won a tender to supply pipes for offshore projects to the Brazilian state oil company up until 2029, worth up to $1 billion. According to management, the new contract will sharply increase Vallourec’s share of orders from Petrobras (compared to the previous 2022 contract) and ensure a substantial revenue influx in the coming years. Vallourec's financial situation has strengthened significantly: net debt decreased to €140 million, indicating the successful implementation of its business recovery strategy. Vallourec's financial reports are viewed positively: they reflect high demand from oil and gas companies following an uptick in drilling projects and demonstrate the effectiveness of profitability enhancement measures.
Global Stock Indices
- USA (S&P 500): At this stage, almost all companies in the S&P 500 index have released quarterly results, hence there are no new corporate drivers on 15 November. The American market concluded the week on a negative note: on Friday, Wall Street indices significantly declined as investors locked in profits after a series of reports amidst macro uncertainty. The absence of fresh statistics (due to the government agencies’ shutdown) heightens the significance of external factors. US market participants are evaluating the results of the earnings season: the technology sector, in general, outperformed expectations (a strong report from Cisco led to a sharp rise in its shares, enhancing its forecasts for the year), while consumer and media giants showed more muted results (Walt Disney disappointed with declining revenues, reflecting challenges in streaming and cinema). On Saturday, US exchanges are closed, and investors’ focus is on external signals; any unexpected event globally over the weekend could set the tone for Monday’s trading open.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): There are also no new reports from blue-chip companies in the leading European index on this day – the quarterly reporting season in Europe is coming to a close. European exchanges will be guided by global news, as the intra-European agenda on 15 November is empty. The slowdown in China’s economy could also reflect on sentiment in Europe: particularly sensitive to this are Germany’s industrial sector and luxury goods exporters in France. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone continues to decline smoothly, and investors hope that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes. In the absence of statistics, the current informational backdrop for the Euro Stoxx 50 is shaped by events from the US and Asia: volatility in oil prices, fluctuations in the euro exchange rate, as well as news from the US bond market could lead to movements in European indices at the opening of the week.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Japanese stock index also receives no fresh corporate stimuli over the weekend: most companies have already reported for April–September 2025. Attention is now shifting to macroeconomics: investors are awaiting Japan’s GDP assessment for Q3 (the publication is expected in the coming days) and external trade data. Preliminary signals indicate some improvement in Japan’s exports, which could reduce the trade deficit (trade balance statistics will be released early next week). However, the factor of a weak China raises concerns in Tokyo, as China is Japan's key trading partner. Without news on Saturday, the Nikkei 225 will likely follow global trends: the yen’s exchange rate against the US dollar, the performance of US stock markets on Friday, and commodity prices will serve as guidelines for Japanese investors ahead of the new week.
The Russian Market
In mid-November, the Moscow Exchange continues to witness the peak of the quarterly reporting season for Russian companies, although there are no major publications scheduled for the date of 15 November (Saturday). Investors are evaluating results released over the week and preparing for a series of important releases expected by the end of the month. Many market heavyweights have already disclosed their financial figures for the first nine months of 2025: banks reported on interest dynamics and reserves, oil and gas companies on profits amid price conditions, and metallurgists on the impact of world metal prices. The picture is mixed, but overall corporate results reflect the adaptation of businesses to the new conditions. Concurrently, the internal macro backdrop has improved: the slowdown in inflation (~7.7% y/y in October) and relative stability of the ruble create more confident expectations for the future. Following an unexpected easing of monetary policy (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the key rate to 16.5% per annum), the cost of borrowing for companies is decreasing, which should support economic activity. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the Russian market continue to depend on external factors. Oil and gas prices remain a key driver for the MOEX index; current levels of energy prices are ensuring high profits for the oil and gas sector, supporting Russian equities. The geopolitical situation and sanctions risks also remain on the agenda: investors are cautiously monitoring developments on these fronts. Overall, the Russian market is entering a new trading cycle post-weekend with hopes for a positive external backdrop and a continuation of the trend towards reduced inflationary pressure within the country.
Summary of the Day: Key Points for Investors
- China’s Slowdown and Global Demand: Weak October data from China (deceleration in industrial production and retail growth) has emerged as the main macro newsmaker in recent days. Investors must evaluate how the cooling of the second-largest global economy will impact their portfolios. Negative effects may be possible for export-oriented companies and commodity assets – for example, prices for industrial metals and oil may remain under pressure due to reduced demand from China. In this regard, markets are waiting for signals of additional economic stimulus from Chinese authorities, and any such announcements over the weekend or early in the week could significantly influence sentiment.
- Earnings Season: Sector Insights: The concluding phase of corporate reporting sheds light on the state of different sectors of the economy. JBS’s results emphasised issues in the agribusiness sector – even with a revenue increase, high costs are eroding margins, particularly in regions with limited raw material supply. Simultaneously, Vallourec’s report showed that the investment cycle in the oil and gas sector is on the rise: demand for industrial equipment (pipes) remains high, allowing companies in this segment to improve financial performance. Investors should leverage such signals when rebalancing their assets: consider which sectors are currently performing better (energy, infrastructure) or worse (consumer goods, media) and how sustainable these trends are amidst slowing global growth.
- Absence of Data and Market Volatility: The weekend pause in macro data publication is a calm before potential movements. The US shutdown continues to block the release of several indicators, heightening uncertainty: the markets lack fresh reference points for inflation and consumption in the US. In such conditions, the role of rumors and external indicators (such as leading indices, data from private surveys) increases. The sharp decline in US markets on Friday indicates that investors are nervously reacting to any new information. At the beginning of the new week, volatility may increase as accumulated weekend news begins to filter into prices. Trading participants should be prepared for possible sharp movements – in an information vacuum, markets may overreact even to small events.
- Risk Management during Quiet Days: The absence of trading on Saturday does not warrant a lapse in vigilance. Investors should use this weekend for a portfolio and strategy review. This is an opportune time to analyse fresh company reports and macro data, reassess target levels of positions and stop losses. It is worthwhile to check whether the fundamental underpinnings for key assets have changed over the week. Additionally, it is useful to verify diversification and hedging: is the portfolio balanced across sectors and markets, is there protection against potential declines (for instance, in the form of safe-haven assets or put options)? Such 'homework' on a quiet day will help prepare for the new week with readiness and reduce the impact of unexpected shocks.
