Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, 31 July 2026 – Bank of Japan Decision, Eurozone Inflation, Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Norilsk Nickel
Friday, 31 July 2026, marks the conclusion of one of the busiest weeks in the summer business calendar. The week has seen the Federal Reserve meeting under the new chair Kevin Warsh, the first estimate of US GDP for Q2, and reports from tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The final notes of the week are equally significant: investors await the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone in July, business activity indices from China, as well as quarterly reports from oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. On the Russian market, attention is focused on Norilsk Nickel's half-year reporting according to IFRS. The last trading day of the month traditionally involves portfolio rebalancing, which heightens volatility across global stock markets.
Key Events of the Day: A Brief Overview
- Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, updated forecast report, and press conference by Kazuo Ueda.
- Preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation (CPI) for the Eurozone in July.
- Official business activity indices (PMI) for China in July.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2, Chicago PMI, and final Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US.
- Q2 reports from: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Sony Group, Moderna, among others.
- Publication of consolidated IFRS financial statements for Norilsk Nickel for the first half of 2026.
Bank of Japan: Interest Rate, Forecasts and Yen at 40-Year Lows
The main macro event of Friday will be the results of the two-day Bank of Japan meeting. The consensus suggests maintaining the key rate at 1% per annum; however, the intrigue lies in the details: alongside the decision, the regulator will release its quarterly forecast report, and Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference. The yen is hovering near four-decade lows, around 163–164 per dollar, which increases pressure on the regulator and heightens the risk of currency interventions. Any hint of an accelerated rate hike cycle could trigger a yen appreciation, a unwinding of global carry trades, and a correction in the Nikkei 225 index, which is sensitive to currency factors due to the high proportion of exporters.
Eurozone Inflation: ECB's Course Under Scrutiny
At 12:00 Moscow time, Eurostat will present a preliminary estimate of consumer price growth for July. Following June's decline in annual inflation to 2.8%, economists expect a rebound to around 2.9–3.0% amid rising energy costs due to the current escalation in the Middle East. Core inflation is forecasted to remain near 2.4%. This publication will be a key argument in discussions regarding a potential ECB rate hike at the 10 September meeting – the market is already pricing in a strong likelihood of tightening. Stronger data will support the euro but may pressure the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX indices.
US Statistics: Labour Costs and Consumer Sentiment
The US calendar on Friday is considerably lighter than in previous days, but it will not go unnoticed:
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2 – a significant indicator of wage pressure on inflation for the Fed.
- Chicago Business Activity Index (Chicago PMI) for July – a leading indicator before the ISM publication in early August.
- Final assessment of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, including inflation expectations of households.
Following the Fed's decision to maintain the rate and the release of PCE deflator data the day prior, these releases will clarify the trajectory of monetary policy for the autumn, given that inflation still exceeds the targeted 2%.
China: PMI Indices to Set the Tone for Commodity Markets
In the morning, the official business activity indices for China for July will be released – covering both the manufacturing and services sectors. Following the recent Politburo meeting, which highlighted measures to support domestic demand, investors will be looking for confirmation of stabilisation in the world's second-largest economy. PMI data directly affect oil prices, industrial metals, and the stock prices of commodity companies, from Europe’s mining sector to Russian exporters.
ExxonMobil and Chevron: Oil Giants Day on Wall Street
Before the market opens in the US, ExxonMobil and Chevron will report their quarterly results. ExxonMobil has already informed the market that Q2 profits could be approximately $5 billion higher than in Q1 due to a surge in oil prices (the average Brent price for the quarter was about $96.7 per barrel, +23% compared to Q1) and a recovery in refining margins. Investors will assess the sustainability of the $20 billion annual share buyback programme and a dividend history boasting 43 consecutive years of growth. For Chevron, the focus will be on the integration of Hess assets, production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, and its ability to generate free cash flow amid volatile commodity prices.
Other US Reports: Pharma, Consumer Sector and Industry
In addition to the oil majors, several other companies are set to report before the market opens:
- AbbVie – sales trends for the immunology portfolio Skyrizi and Rinvoq;
- Linde – an indicator of global industrial health through demand for industrial gases;
- Colgate-Palmolive – pricing strategies and organic growth in the consumer segment;
- Eaton – orders related to electrification and data centre construction;
- Dominion Energy, Cameco, Cboe Global Markets, T. Rowe Price, Moderna, AutoNation – a broad cross-section from energy to finance sectors.
The earnings season is generally proving strong: according to FactSet, S&P 500 companies' profits in Q2 rose nearly 25% year-on-year – the second consecutive quarter with growth rates exceeding 20%.
Asia and Europe: Sony and the Conclusion of the Peak Week
In Asia, a key corporate publication will be the report from Sony Group – investors will gauge the performance of its gaming, music, and semiconductor segments, as well as the impact of the weak yen on the exporter's revenues. In Europe, the peak of the season was reached mid-week when heavyweights such as EssilorLuxottica, GSK, and Rio Tinto reported; on Friday, attention will shift to macro statistics and the final weekly dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50 in light of the inflation report.
The Russian Market: Norilsk Nickel and the Wave of Half-Year Reports
On Moscow Exchange, on 31 July, Norilsk Nickel will publish its consolidated financial statements under IFRS for the first half of 2026. The market will assess the impact of palladium, nickel, and copper prices, as well as the dynamics of capital expenditures and the company's debt burden – these factors will influence the prospects for returning to dividend payments. Additionally, the end of the month traditionally brings a wave of half-year reports according to RAS from a wide array of issuers in the MOEX index, while investors continue to analyse the results from Sberbank, Yandex, VTB, and Ozon, released in the last days of July.
What to Watch for Investors on 31 July 2026
The last trading day of July combines several risk factors and opportunities. The day's priorities are as follows:
- Bank of Japan rhetoric. Even if the rate is maintained, strong signals from Ueda could trigger a sharp appreciation of the yen and a global unwinding of carry trades – with consequences for emerging market currencies and risky assets.
- Eurozone inflation. A rebound above 3% will heighten expectations for a September ECB rate hike and may exert pressure on European equities and bonds.
- Reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron. Management comments on oil prices, drilling activity, and buybacks will set the tone for the entire energy sector, including Russian oil companies.
- China's PMI. Weak data could signal risks for commodity currencies, metals, and exporters; strong data could support global risk appetite.
- End-of-month effect. The rebalancing of major funds may amplify movements in both directions, so heightened volatility unrelated to fundamental news can be expected in the final hour of trading.
The combination of central bank decisions, inflation statistics, and reports from commodity giants makes 31 July a day when risk management discipline is more critical than the pursuit of short-term yield. A weighted approach, diversification across currencies and sectors, and attention to company forecasts for the second half of the year will help investors navigate the month-end closure with minimal losses.
