Analytical Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, 1 December 2025. Key Macroeconomic Data, Company Earnings from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Monday will bring another batch of crucial macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports. Investors will focus on the US Manufacturing Activity Indicators (PMI, ISM), the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and the conclusion of "Black Friday" online sales (Cyber Monday). Additionally, the market will evaluate the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, where oil-exporting countries are expected to maintain production levels. The day promises to be eventful, and it is essential for investors to monitor market reactions—from American to Asian and Russian markets.
Global Macroeconomics
Global stock markets closed the previous week in positive territory: the S&P 500 gained approximately +1% by Friday's close, with the NASDAQ up +0.9%. This rally has sparked hopes for an economic turnaround and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy. On Monday, traders will be fixated on the US, where the ISM manufacturing activity index (for November) and the final PMI report from S&P Global will be released. Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech adds further significance to the data release: the markets are trying to decipher signals regarding the timing and extent of the next rate decision. Currently, futures on federal funds reflect nearly an 80% probability of a rate reduction in December, and if the data turns out to be stronger than expected, confidence in forthcoming easing could diminish.
Consumer Demand – Cyber Monday
For the retail sector, the "Black Friday" sales—five days of discounts from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday—are coming to a close. Initial data indicates record-breaking activity: online sales in the US have exceeded last year's records, with experts forecasting overall revenues to be 5-7% higher than last year. This has significantly supported the American market, as consumers have actively taken advantage of discounts, particularly in the online segment. Investors will analyse these figures as an indicator of consumer demand and its impact on quarterly retailer reports. Monitoring consumer confidence (the University of Michigan Index) at the end of the week will also reveal how this "sales" optimism has influenced household sentiment.
Oil Market and OPEC+
Over the past weekend, OPEC+ held a meeting and, as expected, decided to maintain production at current levels for the first quarter of 2026. No surprises emerged from this meeting, and oil prices remain stable: Brent is trading around $62-63 per barrel. The outcome has sent a message to the market about the preference for stability over aggressive production increases. Without tightened cuts, oil supply will remain steady, which suppresses any noticeable rise in "black gold" prices. However, risks of renewed price pressure remain on the horizon amid geopolitical upheavals or unexpected drops in demand. Traders in Russian assets will closely monitor OPEC+'s decisions, as the potential for continued supply surplus might weigh on the currencies of commodity exporters, including the rouble.
US Corporate Earnings
- MongoDB (MDB): On Monday evening, the company will hold a conference call to discuss the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Analysts expect revenue growth driven by the adoption of cloud products. Investors are keen to see whether the company's ambitious forecasts regarding client base expansion and profitability will materialise.
- Credo Technology (CRDO): Also after the market closes, this firm will disclose its financial results for the second fiscal quarter of 2026. The backdrop for a strong report suggests further business growth in selling optical networking solutions against the backdrop of booming demand for AI infrastructure.
- ITT Inc. (ITT): This industrial group will release its third-quarter earnings report, typically announced in early December. Increased demand in the aerospace and automation segments may enhance profit forecasts.
Investors will compare the results of these companies with previous expectations and analyse management's commentary. Reports from technology and industrial companies will provide guidance on the state of corporate expenditures and investment trends.
Corporate Reports in Europe and Asia
In Europe and Asia, no major reports are scheduled for Monday, but market participants are preparing for a week packed with corporate events. Upcoming presentations are planned for German automotive giants and banks, as well as reports from Japanese corporations. While Cyber Monday keeps the focus on consumers, Asian participants are assessing local market reactions to global trends, such as the recovery in semiconductor demand or movements in national currencies. Attention will also be directed towards the state of the Russian market in view of external factors.
The Russian Market
The Moscow Exchange showed moderate growth on the last trading day of Friday, buoyed by positive dynamics from "Black Friday" and the stabilisation of oil prices. The rouble strengthened against the dollar, remaining above 75 per US dollar. On Monday, external signals—such as OPEC+'s decisions on oil and US macroeconomic statistics—could significantly influence Russian assets. Local developments at the beginning of December appear limited to the release of confidence indices or weak corporate data, shifting the focus towards global trends. Russian investors should keep an eye on oil price fluctuations and the rouble's exchange rate, as these factors continue to dictate the performance of many securities on the MOEX.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- ISM and PMI (US): The results will reveal the strength of the industrial sector, particularly important in the context of expectations for a rate reduction by the Fed. A slowdown or acceleration in PMI growth could sharply adjust forecasts regarding monetary policy.
- J. Powell's Speech: Any comments regarding the future course of rates or the economic situation in the US will instantly reflect on market expectations and currency exchange rates.
- Black Friday/Cyber Monday: We will confirm the final figures for retail and online sales. Strong results will bolster confidence in the retail sector and consumer demand, while weaker figures will heighten caution.
- Oil Market: The maintaining of stable production levels by OPEC+ keeps prices at current levels. However, all eyes are on possible changes in supply and demand balance: oil continues to dictate the mood of the energy sector and the exchange rates of commodity-based economies.
- Company Reports: MongoDB and Credo will showcase trends in technology and networking solutions, while ITT will highlight developments in the industrial sector. Investors should watch to see if analyst forecasts hold true and adjust growth estimates for the sectors accordingly.
Together, these factors will set the tone for trading at the beginning of December. By continuously monitoring indicators and corporate news, investors can better position themselves for any market fluctuations.
