Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Tuesday, 14th October 2025: IMF Meeting, US Tariffs, and the Start of the Earnings Season

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on 14 October 2025. Annual Meeting of the IMF and World Bank (Day 2), Beginning of Official Q3 Earnings Season in the US, Introduction of New US Import Tariffs on Lumber and Furniture, Publication of RBA Minutes, Monthly IEA Oil Market Report, ZEW Sentiment Indices for Germany and Eurozone, and Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Tuesday presents a packed agenda for financial markets: in the Asia-Pacific region, attention will be on the minutes from the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in Europe – on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone, while the global backdrop is determined by the outcomes of the annual IMF/World Bank forum and US trade measures. In the US, the focus shifts to the start of the earnings season – major banks are set to release their third-quarter results, which will set the tone for the S&P 500 and risk assets. Additionally, investors will assess monetary policy signals from Fed Chair J. Powell amid expectations of a rate cut, as well as comments from Bank of England Governor A. Bailey. The energy sector is monitoring the IEA’s oil report against a backdrop of price volatility. All these factors are interconnected: signals from central banks ↔ bond yields ↔ corporate profits ↔ commodities ↔ investor sentiment.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

• 03:30 — Australia: release of the minutes from the latest RBA meeting.
• 11:00 — International Energy Agency: monthly oil market report.
• 12:00 — Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October).
• 12:00 — Eurozone: composite ZEW sentiment index (October).
• 19:20 — USA: speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• 20:00 — UK: speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Global Economy: IMF Forum and Trade Barriers

• Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank: On the second day of the global financial forum, the state of the global economy is under discussion. Key topics include GDP growth rates for 2025-2026, inflation control, and financial stability risks. The opinions of central bank leaders and finance ministers set the tone for expectations: markets are monitoring whether global regulators will signal further policy easing or warn of new challenges (debt burdens, geopolitics).
• US Tariffs: Starting from 14 October, the United States is imposing import tariffs on several wood and furniture items (10% on foreign lumber and 25% on certain furniture). These protectionist measures aim to support domestic industries but could lead to higher construction material costs and increased retail expenses. Investors are assessing the potential reactions from trade partners (e.g. Canada, China) and the impact on inflation: heightened trade tensions could temporarily dampen risk appetite in global markets.

Monetary Policy: Signals from Central Banks

• RBA Minutes (Australia): The details from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting will provide context for the interest rate decision. If the minutes emphasise slowing inflation and growth risks, this will reinforce expectations for further rate cuts. Soft rhetoric may weaken the Australian dollar and support the Australian stock index, whereas mention of persisting inflationary pressures could increase caution in Asia-Pacific markets.
• Jerome Powell’s Speech (Fed): Fed Chair Powell’s address in the late evening is a key moment for currency and debt markets. Investors will be looking for hints regarding the Fed's next steps: confirmation of a policy easing approach (amid expectations of a Fed rate cut by month-end) will support equity growth and weaken the dollar. In contrast, strong comments about persistently high inflation or a robust labour market could raise treasury yields and trigger a sell-off in risk assets.
• Andrew Bailey’s Comments (Bank of England): The Governor of the Bank of England will speak shortly thereafter. His assessment of the UK economy and inflation outlook is critical for the dynamics of the pound and gilt market. If Bailey signals that the rate hike cycle in the UK is over and policy easing may be needed should inflation decline, this will support the British stock market and weaken the pound. A more ‘hawkish’ stance, conversely, could heighten volatility in the UK Gilts market and strengthen the pound.

Oil Market: IEA Report

• Supply and Demand Overview: The IEA’s monthly oil report will update global demand and supply forecasts. Any downward revision in oil demand estimates for late 2025 could exert downward pressure on Brent and WTI prices, while signs of supply shortages (e.g. due to OPEC+ constraints or inventory reductions) will support price increases.
• Market Reaction: Market participants will closely analyse data on commercial inventories and output in non-OECD countries. The IEA report could adjust expectations regarding market balance: the oil and gas sector (both in the S&P 500 and MOEX) may experience heightened volatility in response to unexpected forecast changes.

Europe: ZEW Sentiment Indicators

• Germany – ZEW Index: The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for October will reflect professional investors' views on the outlook for the German economy. If the index improves (less pessimism), this could support European equities, particularly in the financial and industrial sectors, and strengthen the euro. Conversely, a decline in the index, continuing the trend of weakness due to industrial and export issues, would heighten recession fears in Germany and pressure the DAX and euro exchange rate.
• Eurozone – Composite ZEW Index: A similar survey for the eurozone will indicate how optimistic investors are overall across the EU. A positive trajectory in the ZEW for the eurozone signals a potential improvement in economic activity in the second half of the year, which could boost confidence in European markets. Weak values, on the other hand, affirm slow recovery and may intensify expectations for a more dovish ECB policy.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO)

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): The largest bank in the US kicks off the earnings season, providing a benchmark for the banking sector's health. Investors will focus on net interest income trends amid high rates, lending volumes, and reserves for potential losses. Strong results from JPMorgan could set a positive tone for the entire financial sector of the S&P 500.
• Wells Fargo (WFC): The retail-focused banking giant will report its earnings, with key metrics being mortgage lending and interest margin. The market will evaluate how rising rates have affected lending activity and profitability, alongside management comments on asset quality and loan demand.
• Citigroup (C): The multinational bank will present results crucial for understanding the state of investment banking services and global markets. Market participants will focus on trading and investment banking revenues, as well as Citi's business restructuring progress. Any surprises in Citigroup’s report could influence sentiment in the US and European financial sectors.
• Goldman Sachs (GS): Goldman Sachs’ report will reveal how much the activity has revived in the mergers and acquisitions and IPO markets, which depend on commission revenues. Additionally, the focus will be on the performance of the trading division amidst volatile markets. Goldman’s management comments on investment banking prospects will serve as a barometer for Wall Street assessments.
• BlackRock (BLK): The world’s largest asset management firm will report on inflows/outflows of funds and assets under management (AUM). An increase in AUM and positive capital inflows signal investor confidence, while outflows could indicate caution. Moreover, the market will assess BlackRock’s comments on the state of the ETF marketplace and demand for investment products in the context of market volatility.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): The healthcare conglomerate and sector indicator will present financial results, in which pharmaceutical sales and medical devices are crucial. Investors will focus on profit forecasts, sales dynamics of key medications, and the impact of cost inflation. A successful quarter for J&J will bolster trust in the resilience of the healthcare sector, while weak figures may heighten concerns over pharmaceutical demand.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC)

• At the end of the day on 14 October, no major corporate publications are expected. The bulk of technological and industrial leaders will announce their results later in the season. Investors will use the quiet period to analyse the first banking reports and prepare for the wave of reports in the following days.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): The European segment on 14 October sees a relatively quiet day for corporate releases, with no significant reports from eurozone blue chips. The market tone is set by macroeconomic indicators (ZEW indices) and global factors such as Powell’s speeches and commodity price dynamics. The European equity index will respond accordingly to these external signals.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In Japan, the financial reporting season for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year (April-September) is gaining momentum closer to the end of October. No major reports are scheduled for 14 October in Tokyo, thus the Japanese market is focusing on external drivers – currency fluctuations and global central bank rhetoric. A stable yen and a positive external backdrop will support the Nikkei, while negative external news may curb growth.
• MOEX (Russia): In the Russian market, ongoing disclosures of separate operational results and interim reports from issuers continue. The focus remains on certain companies in the energy and consumer sectors, although most large Russian corporations typically disclose financial results for the first nine months only at the end of October or early November. The MOEX index is likely to primarily follow sentiments in global markets and oil price dynamics, awaiting local drivers.

Day’s Summary: Key Points for Investors

1. Start of Earnings Season in the US: Results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and other banks set the tone for the entire market; it is crucial to assess whether corporate profits meet expectations and how the reports will impact the S&P 500 index and the financial sector.
2. Rhetoric from the Fed and Bank of England: Speeches by Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey could lead to a reshaping of expectations around interest rates; sharp statements may trigger movements in bond yields, the dollar, the pound, and consequently in stock market volatility.
3. IEA Oil Report: New forecasts on supply and demand balance in the oil market will impact energy resource price dynamics; it is advisable to monitor reactions from oil and gas companies' stocks and currencies of oil-exporting nations.
4. US Trade Measures: The introduction of tariffs on lumber and furniture may affect segments of the construction and furniture retail; it is important for investors to understand how these tariffs will influence companies’ costs and US relations with key trading partners.
5. European Sentiment Indicators: An unexpected rise or drop in the ZEW indices will affect forecasts for the EU economy; this will reflect on the euro exchange rate, the European banking sector, and more broadly, the risk appetite in emerging markets, including the CIS region.