Key Events on 23 October 2025: EU Summit, Potential Sanctions and Asset Confiscations of Russia, Turkey's Central Bank Rate Decision, US Unemployment and Housing Sales Data, EIA Gas Report, Reports from Intel, Ford, Hasbro, Honeywell, Nokia and Other Companies. A Comprehensive Overview with Emphasis on Major Macro and Corporate Triggers.
Thursday, 23 October 2025, promises to be a busy day for the markets. Investors' attention is drawn to simultaneous geopolitical decisions in Europe, a significant central bank decision in an emerging market, a series of key statistics from the United States, as well as the continuation of the corporate earnings season across multiple industries. Such events are likely to have a considerable impact on the dynamics of the CIS markets, making this day particularly significant for the business audience.
European Union: Summit and New Sanction Package
The second day of the European Union summit in Brussels continues, where leaders of EU countries are discussing the 19th sanction package against Russia. Diplomats are signalling their intention to approve yet another round of restrictive measures aimed at increasing pressure on the Russian economy. According to European sources, the new package may include some of the most significant sanctions to date targeting intermediaries from third countries: for instance, companies from China's oil industry accused of assisting Moscow in circumventing the oil supply ban. Additionally, measures to further reduce energy dependence on Russia are being discussed, including a phased halt to imports of Russian LNG by 2027.
The summit is also separately reviewing the issue of potential confiscation of frozen Russian assets. This concerns hundreds of billions of euros blocked in European accounts as part of previous sanctions. Some EU countries are calling for these funds or their interest to be directed towards financing the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, the legal aspect of confiscation remains contentious: leaders are discussing how to convert frozen reserves into a mechanism to assist Ukraine without violating international law and setting a dangerous precedent. The conclusions from the summit discussions regarding sanctions and frozen assets may set the tone for EU relations with Russia and China, as well as influence investor sentiment in the region.
Monetary Policy: Turkey's Central Bank Decision
In the afternoon, market attention will shift to the Central Bank of Turkey, which will announce its interest rate decision (expected at 14:00 Moscow time). The Turkish regulator has moved towards a cycle of easing policy this year after a prolonged period of high rates; however, rising inflation in autumn has compelled the bank's leadership to act cautiously. Economic forecasts suggest a moderate reduction of interest rates by around 100 basis points, bringing them to approximately 39.5%. The last two meetings resulted in more aggressive actions (lowering by 250 and 300 basis points), so investors are now awaiting signals of a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts due to the renewed acceleration of inflation (with the annual rate exceeding 33% again in September). Any deviation from the expected decision or comments from Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan regarding inflation control and future direction may elicit notable reactions in the Turkish markets and neighbouring countries.
US Macroeconomic Indicators
Economic statistics from the US, scheduled for release in the evening, could set a global news backdrop and affect expectations regarding Fed policy:
- Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 Moscow time): weekly indicator of the labour market condition. Analysts predict that claims for benefits will remain near multi-year lows, confirming the resilience of the US labour market.
- September Existing Home Sales (17:00 Moscow time): an important indicator of the housing sector condition. A decline in sales volume is expected amidst high mortgage rates and limited home supply, indicating a continued cooling of the real estate market.
- October Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (18:00 Moscow time): a regional leading indicator for the industry. Previous reports showed a restrained level of activity amid high costs and moderate demand; new data will help assess whether the situation in the manufacturing sector is improving as Q4 begins.
- EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report (17:30 Moscow time): weekly statistics from the US Energy Information Administration. Investors in the commodity markets are closely monitoring the pace of natural gas storage fill. As the winter season approaches, inventory levels are near the long-term average, and unexpected changes in stockpiles may impact global gas prices.
Corporate Reports: Global Sector Overview
The quarterly earnings season is in full swing, with several large publicly traded companies releasing financial results today. The announcement of Q3 2025 results is taking place synchronously across the US, Europe, and Asia, providing a broad view of the global economy's condition. Investors are assessing how different sectors are coping with the impacts of factors like China's economic slowdown, high inflation, and changing borrowing costs. Below are key sectoral reports to watch.
Technology and Semiconductors
- Intel (INTC): The American semiconductor giant will report after the market closes. Intel is expected to provide data on the recovery of demand for PCs and servers, as well as comments on the prospects for chips production for artificial intelligence. Intel's results traditionally serve as a barometer for the entire semiconductor sector.
- STMicroelectronics (STM): The major European chip producer will present results in the morning on Eurozone exchanges. The company has already announced that its report publication is scheduled before market opening and will hold a conference call with analysts. STM's data will provide insight into the resilience of demand for electronics and automotive components in Europe and Asia.
Energy and Commodities
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): The leading US copper and gold mining company will present earnings against a backdrop of volatile metal prices. Investors will evaluate how fluctuations in copper (a crucial industrial metal) and gold prices have affected Freeport's revenues, as well as hear management’s forecasts regarding Chinese demand.
- Newmont Corporation (NEM): The world’s largest gold producer will publish financial results reflecting the market dynamics for precious metals. High gold prices during the quarter may have supported Newmont's revenues; however, the market will closely examine the company's costs and production volumes at its key sites.
- Dow Inc. (DOW): The chemical and materials conglomerate from the Dow Jones index will report on sales dynamics for industrial raw materials. Dow's results provide an indicator of demand in the industry and construction: increases or decreases in sales volumes of polymers, chemicals, and other materials will reflect the state of the manufacturing sector in the US and globally.
Additionally, commodity market participants will pay attention to the aforementioned EIA gas inventory report and any signals from corporate reports concerning the oil and gas sector. Although major oil companies are not releasing reports today, the dynamics of commodity prices and comments from extraction companies (such as Freeport or Newmont) will help shape expectations in the energy sector.
Aviation
- American Airlines (AAL): One of the largest airlines in the US will present its earnings report for the summer-autumn period. Investors expect to see the impact of high demand for air travel, especially during the holiday season, and learn how rising jet fuel prices and increasing wages have affected American Airlines' business margins.
- Alaska Air Group (ALK): The holding company that owns Alaska Airlines will report results from its key North American segment. Analysts predict strong passenger traffic on domestic US flights. Focus will be on Alaska Air's forecasts regarding business traffic and competition with other carriers on the West Coast.
- Southwest Airlines (LUV): The largest low-cost carrier in the US will publish financial results that will illustrate how the mass tourism segment has recovered from the pandemic. Southwest is known for stable domestic demand, and investors will be looking to see if the airline has managed to keep operational costs in check and maintain profitability amid high fuel prices.
Industry and Automotive Manufacturers
- Ford Motor (F): The American automaker will present quarterly results, coinciding with the launch of new electric vehicle models. Ford's report will provide insights into the state of the automotive industry: investors expect comments on automobile demand, supply chain conditions, and the impact of component prices. The market is also watching how Ford's electrification strategy is reflected in its financial performance.
- Honeywell International (HON): The conglomerate manufacturing aerospace equipment, automation systems, and materials will report on sales and profits. Honeywell’s results traditionally reflect a broad picture of industrial demand — from aerospace to energy. Special attention will be drawn to the results from the aerospace systems division amid the revival of the airline market, as well as the growth of the automation segment in industry.
- Dover Corporation (DOV): The industrial equipment manufacturer (pumps, engineering systems, refrigeration equipment, etc.) will publish quarterly results before the market opens in New York. The resilience of demand for Dover’s products across various sectors of the economy (from energy to consumer goods packaging) will indicate whether businesses are maintaining high levels of capital expenditure. Growth in orders for industrial machinery will signal business confidence in the economic environment.
- AutoNation (AN): The largest automotive dealership network in the US will present sales data for vehicles. Following a spike in car prices in recent years, both the new and used car markets are beginning to stabilise. AutoNation’s report will provide insights into consumer demand for vehicles, dealer inventory levels, and the impact of interest rates on purchase financing.
It is worth noting that the industrial sector in Europe is also entering the earnings season. In the coming days, some participants of the Euro Stoxx 50 index — such as automotive manufacturers and engineering firms from Germany and France — will release their results, providing additional context on global demand for industrial goods and automobiles.
Telecommunications
- T-Mobile US (TMUS): One of the leaders in the American telecommunications market will report after the main session concludes. Investors are expecting an increase in cellular subscribers in the US, particularly in the context of 5G network expansion. Additionally, how the integration of assets following previous mergers (particularly with Sprint) continues to impact cost reductions and the company's profitability is crucial.
- Nokia (NOK): The Finnish telecommunications equipment manufacturer will present financial results in Europe. Nokia is experiencing a period of intense competition and cost-cutting: earlier this month, the company announced staff optimisations due to declining demand for 5G networks. Q3 results will show how much sales of networking equipment and services have declined, while management's comments will provide insights into the telecommunications infrastructure market outlook for 2026.
Financial Sector
- Byline Bancorp (BY): A regional bank from Chicago will report on financial results reflecting the mid-sized banking sector situation. Investors are interested in the growth of net interest income amid high interest rates in the US, as well as the quality of Byline's loan portfolio — whether there has been an increase in delinquencies among small to medium-sized businesses.
- Associated Banc-Corp (ASB): A large regional bank from the US Midwest will publish results, providing another perspective on the banking sector's condition. Following a series of interest rate hikes from the Fed, banks' lending margins have increased, although the cost of deposits has risen as well. Associated Bank's results will indicate whether the bank has managed to increase profits without significantly deteriorating liquidity and capital adequacy ratios.
Overall, quarterly reports from major US banks were released earlier in October, demonstrating resilient results. Attention is now shifting to mid-sized and small banks and non-bank financial companies. In Europe, reports from several Eurozone banks are expected this week, which will help assess the impact of high ECB rates on lending and profitability of European credit institutions.
Toys and Entertainment
- Hasbro (HAS): The American toy and game manufacturer will present Q3 results, traditionally one of the most important before the holiday sales season. Investors will evaluate Hasbro's revenue trends, including sales of popular toy lines and board games. The company's forecasts for Q4, when consumer activity peaks, and its efforts to develop digital entertainment amidst changing children's preferences will also be in focus.
- Boyd Gaming (BYD): The operator of casino and hotel chains in the US will report financial performances in the entertainment segment. The gambling and recreation sector has shown robust recovery from the pandemic, and Boyd's report will indicate whether the revenue growth from casinos and resorts is being maintained. Investors will also pay attention to the management’s comments regarding expansion plans and levels of tourist activity within the US.
Outlook for the End of the Day
By the end of this eventful Thursday, investors will have a more comprehensive picture of the global economy's state. The EU's geopolitical decisions will highlight the future trajectory of sanctions pressure and potential risks for companies related to the confiscation of Russian assets. Turkey's monetary policy will serve as a reminder of the challenges faced by emerging markets amidst persistent inflation. US macro statistics will either confirm or call into question the resilience of the US economy ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting. The numerous corporate reports worldwide will reveal specific details at the sector level: from air travel and automobile demand to investment activity in commodities extraction and consumer market trends.
What should investors focus on? Above all, on the forecasts and signals presented in the companies’ and regulators' comments. The figures of profits or GDP are less important on their own than what they signify for the future. If the ECB and EU leaders maintain a tough stance against Russia, this may influence energy markets and the euro exchange rate. Turkey's Central Bank decisions will affect risk appetite in emerging markets. US statistics, if deviating from forecasts, may adjust expectations regarding the Fed's rate and, consequently, the movements of the dollar. As for company reports, investors will draw conclusions about the prospects of entire sectors — from technology to the entertainment industry. Thus, the end of the day on 23 October will provide ample food for analysis and aid in refining investment strategies for the near future.
