Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, 28 September 2025: Swiss Referendum, US Shutdown Threat, Chinese Corporate Earnings Growth, Resumption of Oil Exports from Iraq, and Dividend Decisions on the Russian Market
The last Sunday of September promises a relatively calm news backdrop; however, there are several points of interest for investors. At the forefront is the Swiss referendum, which could influence the local market and the exchange rate of the franc, alongside the impending US budget deadline that poses a shutdown threat. Additionally, signals from China indicate a potential revival in industrial activity, while the commodities market presents news on increased oil supply. Investors in the CIS should also consider local corporate events—dividends and shareholder meetings—when assessing the prospects for the start of the new week.
Political Events
- Switzerland – Referendum: On 28 September, Swiss citizens will vote on two issues: the introduction of a government electronic identification system (e-ID) and a special tax on second homes. Approval of the e-ID will accelerate the digitalisation of services, while the property tax will impact the housing market in resort cantons. Results of the voting will be known by the evening of Sunday and could affect the movement of the franc and shares of Swiss companies at the beginning of the week.
- USA – Shutdown Threat: The US Congress has yet to agree on a budget for the new financial year, which starts on 1 October. In the absence of compromise, the government will begin a shutdown on 1 October. Historically, such a situation increases volatility in US stock indices and places pressure on the dollar due to heightened uncertainty. Investors worldwide will be monitoring negotiations in Washington closely on Sunday—news of a temporary funding agreement or a failure in negotiations could drive sentiment ahead of Monday's market opening.
Economic Events
- China – Industrial Statistics: According to data published on Saturday, the cumulative profits of large industrial companies in China for January to August 2025 increased by +0.9% year-on-year. This marks the first positive performance in a long time, with profits in August alone rising by more than 20% year-on-year. This impressive jump signals potential stabilisation for the world's second largest economy. Positive news from China could improve sentiment in Asian markets on Monday and support commodity assets and currencies of developing countries.
- Oil – Resumption of Exports from Iraq: After a break of 2.5 years, oil supplies via the pipeline from Kurdistan (Northern Iraq) to the Turkish port of Ceyhan have resumed. An additional 180,000 barrels per day are returning to the market, moderately increasing global supply. For Brent crude prices, which have been hovering around $90, this acts as a mild restraining factor. Investors in the commodities market will observe if prices adjust downwards in response to this news, which may reflect on oil and gas stocks in the coming days.
Corporate Reports: International Markets
- Carnival Corp (CCL): The largest cruise operator will present its financial results for the summer quarter (expected to be released on 29 September before the New York market opens). Focus will be on revenue growth and ship occupancy during the peak travel season, alongside management's comments on bookings for the upcoming months and the impact of fuel prices. A strong report from Carnival will support stocks in the travel and transportation sector, while weak figures may heighten concerns regarding consumer spending.
- Jefferies (JEF): The investment bank and trading firm will report its quarterly results (scheduled for after market close). Jefferies traditionally publishes results ahead of major financial institutions, thus serving as an early indicator of the state of Wall Street. Investors are looking for an increase in commission income from investment banking services and securities trading amid an easing monetary policy. Close attention will be paid to management's commentary on client activity and the mergers and acquisitions market. The success of Jefferies could set a positive tone ahead of the banking earnings season in October.
Corporate Events: Russia
- Yandex (Dividends): On Monday, Yandex shares will start trading without a dividend; 28 September is the last day before the record date. Technically, by the opening of the new week, quotations will drop by the amount of the approved payout. However, for investors, the mere fact of dividend payments beginning is a positive signal regarding the maturity and stability of the business. In the short term, increased volatility in Yandex shares is possible, but it will be of a technical nature.
- Gazprom Neft (Dividends): On 28 September, Gazprom Neft shareholders will hold an extraordinary meeting to approve interim dividends for the first half of 2025. The company is expected to maintain a generous dividend policy thanks to solid financial results. A substantial payout approval will support Gazprom Neft shares and attract the interest of dividend investors. If the dividend falls short of expectations, this may temporarily dampen sentiment, but overall, oil and gas stocks remain primarily dependent on oil prices.
- Other Issuers: With most leading Russian companies having reported their half-year results earlier, there are almost no new releases at the end of September. The local stock market will be influenced by external factors—the dynamics of oil prices, the exchange rate of the rouble, and the overall risk sentiment in global markets. Dividend events of individual companies (such as Yandex and Gazprom Neft) have a localized impact without altering the overall picture of the Moscow Exchange index.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No significant statistical releases or corporate reports are expected in Eurozone countries on 28 September, so European markets will likely follow the global trend. The results of the Swiss referendum will have more of a local impact (primarily on the financial sector and the franc) and will not directly influence the Euro Stoxx 50 index. Key indicators for Europe will be news from the US (budget crisis) and China. Additionally, potential correction in oil prices may trigger profit-taking in European energy giants' stocks, while optimism surrounding the Chinese economy could support industrial and commodity companies.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese market is entering the new week in a state of relatively stable macro conditions. Inflation in Tokyo remained at around 2.5% in September, confirming the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan and maintaining soft financial conditions—a factor favourable for stocks. In the absence of internal events, the Nikkei 225 will take cues from external factors: improved sentiment on Wall Street and positive signals from China could push the index upwards. However, the yen's exchange rate remains critical; if the yen begins to strengthen due to global demand for safe havens, this could dampen growth for Japanese exporters and slow the Nikkei rally.
- MOEX (Russia): The Moscow Exchange index closed the week around 2700 points, attempting to stabilise after a recent decline. Without new internal drivers, its trajectory will depend on the external environment—oil prices, the rouble’s exchange rate, and global risk appetite. Moderate declines in oil prices limit the upside potential for Russian stocks, but the rouble’s resilience and the absence of new shocks help prevent a deep downturn. Dividend stories from individual companies attract the attention of retail investors, yet in the broader context, the market will likely remain in consolidation awaiting more significant catalysts for movement.
Day’s Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- Swiss Referendum: Results from the voting will be revealed on Sunday evening. A positive outcome (support for e-ID and tax initiatives) will confirm the Swiss government’s course and likely not shake markets—possibly leading to a moderate strengthening of the CHF and growth in shares of certain Swiss companies. Conversely, an unexpected rejection by voters may cause short-term turbulence: weakening the franc and triggering sell-offs in affected sectors. Foreign investors need to assess whether this volatility will spill over into neighbouring EU markets.
- Situation in the USA: By Monday, it will be clear whether a shutdown has been avoided. If so, a slight relief rally in stock markets and a strengthening dollar can be expected since the uncertainty factor will dissipate. However, if the budget crisis escalates sharply, there is likely to be a flight to quality: demand for treasury bonds and gold will rise, while stocks may come under pressure. Keep an eye on news from Washington on the night from Sunday to Monday.
- Oil and the Rouble: The additional oil supply from Iraq poses a factor for slight price reductions unless other news emerges. For Russian investors, the dynamics of Brent crude and the resolution of fuel export situations in the domestic market remain in focus: both the budget and the rouble’s exchange rate depend on energy resource prices. Softening oil prices combined with the end of the tax period may lead to some weakening of the rouble at the start of the week.
- Chinese Factor: The unexpected rise in profits among Chinese enterprises is a rare positive surprise that could enhance global forecasts. Increased interest in shares of commodity and industrial companies linked to China is likely. However, the publication of PMI indexes from China is ahead (on Tuesday), thus some investors may adopt a wait-and-see position until the trend is confirmed. Overall, the resilience of the Chinese economy is a key factor for sentiment in emerging markets.
- Corporate Signals: Although the day is relatively quiet, it is worth noting the Carnival report—it will indicate the state of travel demand, impacting the entire travel sector (airlines, hotels). Additionally, investors on the MOEX should take note of the technical decline in Yandex shares due to the dividend cut-off—not to confuse this one-off effect with fundamental weakness. Gazprom Neft's decision on dividends will set the tone in the energy sector: the higher the dividend, the stronger the support for the sector. In the absence of other significant events, markets are likely to focus on these individual signals and the overall macro backdrop.
