Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Thursday, 29 January 2026: Central Bank Rates of Brazil and South Africa, Reports of Apple and Visa

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, 29 January 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macroeconomic Statistics from the US, Eurozone, and South Africa, as well as the Reporting from the World's Largest Public Companies. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday is set to be a busy day for global markets. In focus are the decisions by the central banks of Brazil and South Africa regarding interest rates, which will reflect the sentiments of regulators in emerging markets amid inflation dynamics. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence and inflation expectations indices will be released, complemented by a series of corporate reports from major companies in the region. In the US, the key events will be the financial results of technology giant Apple and payment system Visa (to be published after market close), while throughout the day, investors will analyse weekly data on the labour market and trade balance. The energy sector is paying attention to the report on natural gas inventories in the US, particularly due to the winter season. It is crucial for investors to assess all signals collectively: the dovish tone of central banks in emerging markets ↔ dynamics of bond yields and currencies in emerging markets ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in stock markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central Bank decision on interest rates.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation Expectations Index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: Central Bank (SARB) decision on interest rates.
5. 16:30 — USA: Initial Jobless Claims (weekly).
6. 16:30 — USA: Trade Balance (November).
7. 18:00 — USA: Volume of Industrial Orders (November).
8. 18:30 — USA: Natural Gas Inventories (weekly, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Central Bank Decisions in Brazil and South Africa

• Brazil: The Central Bank (Copom) is likely to maintain the rate around 15%, the highest level in the last 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4–5% y/y) but remains above the target, hence the regulator adopts a strict tone. Markets will be looking for hints of policy easing: many expect a signal regarding the start of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to decline. Any change in rhetoric could impact the BRL exchange rate and the value of Brazilian assets.
• South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank's meeting occurs amid inflation approaching its new target of 3%. In December, consumer prices rose by 3.6% y/y, and the rand strengthened in late 2025. The regulator has already begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision is a fine choice between a pause (maintaining the rate around 6.75%) and a small reduction of 0.25%. Analysts are evenly split on forecasts. Easing policy would support economic growth and the local stock index; however, some committee members may prefer to wait for additional data (new CPI, budget in February) for confidence. Investors will be closely listening to comments from the SARB Governor: signals of further rate reductions could stimulate demand for South African bonds and affect the rand’s exchange rate.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will publish the Consumer Confidence Index for January. It is expected that the indicator will remain in negative territory (around -13…-15 points), reflecting the continued cautious mood among households in the Eurozone. With consistently low unemployment and declining inflation, moderate improvements in sentiment would bolster hopes for maintaining consumer spending levels. However, the deep deficit in the index indicates that Europeans are still inclined towards a saving model, which may restrain retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: At the same time, consumer inflation expectations will be revealed. In December, expectations for the coming year and beyond dropped closer to ~4%, which falls within the acceptable range near the ECB's target. If the January survey shows a further decrease in expected inflation, it will become a positive signal for the European Central Bank – confidence that price pressure is being controlled is increasing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations may strengthen the ECB's "hawkish" stance. The results from this index will impact the euro and sentiment in European markets: lower expectations could support European stocks amid hopes for dovish monetary policy.

USA: Labour Market and Industry

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly initial jobless claims in the US remain around multi-year lows (~200–210k claims). This confirms the resilience of the labour market: American employers are reluctant to downsise even amid elevated Federal Reserve rates. If new data for the week ending 24 January again shows figures below ~220k, investors will be reassured about the economy's strength. However, a rise in claims above expectations could signal an onset of weakening in the labour market, which may affect Fed policy in the future.
• Trade Balance (November): Data on US foreign trade for November will help assess the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to ~$29 billion – the lowest since 2009, thanks to a sharp rise in exports (including gold) and a reduction in imports. If the trend of maintaining the deficit at a low level continues in November, it would support calculations for a positive contribution from foreign trade to economic growth. Conversely, an expansion of the deficit may indicate a recovery in domestic demand (rising imports) and a weakening contribution from exports. Particular attention will be paid to the dynamics of manufacturing exports and energy sources, as well as the import flows of consumer goods for the holiday season.
• Industrial Orders (November): The report on the volume of new orders in the manufacturing sector (Factory Orders) will show activity within the US industrial sector at the end of the year. An increase is expected following a decline in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: it was previously reported that orders for durable goods surged by ~5% m/m in November amid large volumes of aircraft contracts. An increase in orders signals sustained investment demand from businesses, which is positive for manufacturers (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). However, if orders disappoint and decline, it may indicate caution from companies amid high rates and reinforce discussions about the risks of industrial recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• The US Department of Energy will present data on natural gas inventories for the last week in its weekly EIA report. Currently, gas inventories are seasonally declining due to winter heating demand. Analysts forecast a significant withdrawal – possibly around 120-150 billion cubic feet for the week, which is comparable to historical averages for the end of January. Should the actual reduction in gas inventories exceed expectations, this could boost natural gas prices in spot markets (especially in the US and Europe). Conversely, a moderate withdrawal volume or mild weather that suppresses demand may lead to further declines in gas prices. Energy sector traders will closely monitor whether current inventories are sufficient for the remainder of the winter and whether there is a risk of fuel shortages.

Corporate Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): The Asian technology sector is setting the tone this morning – the two largest memory manufacturers reported strong results for Q4 2025. Samsung Electronics announced record operating profit, nearly tripling year-on-year amid a boom in demand related to AI and a recovery in the semiconductor market. SK Hynix also returned to profitability following a downturn the previous year, thanks to rising prices for memory chips (DRAM/NAND) and a revival of data centre orders. Investors are assessing comments from Korean companies about demand prospects in 2026: the continuation of the "chip cycle" will support the global technology sector, while warnings about market saturation or falling prices could cool sentiment towards semiconductor manufacturers' shares.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): The American defence giant will present its report before the US market opens, showing results for Q4 and the entire year of 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global growth in military budgets and demand for high-tech weapons (F-35 fighters, missile defence systems, etc.) are contributing to an increase in the order backlog. Investors will focus on the size of the contract backlog and management's outlook for 2026. Particular attention will be on margins and cost management amid inflation, as well as comments regarding supply chains. Stable or exceeding expectations metrics at Lockheed Martin will support the entire defence sector, while a weak forecast could lead to profit-taking in defence stocks that have risen over the past year.
• Mastercard (MA): One of the leading payment systems in the world will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Sustained profit growth is expected amid high transaction volumes: the holiday season sales and increased tourist traffic (cross-border payments) should support revenue. Investors will analyse the dynamics of Gross Dollar Volume, growth in processed transactions, and metrics by segment (e.g., B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends are also important – is there a decline amid higher interest rates and prices? Any signals from Mastercard regarding slowing activity or rising costs (e.g., due to new security technologies and competition) could impact shares of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector as well.
• Honeywell (HON): The industrial conglomerate from the Dow Jones index will present its quarterly results and its forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business – from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital segments. Revenue growth is expected, especially in the aerospace division, given the high demand for aircraft parts and servicing amid the recovery of passenger transport. Investors are also interested in orders within the automation and climate control segments (influence of industrial modernisation projects and "green" initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimisation, so markets will be watching operational margin levels. If Honeywell confirms a confident forecast for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), this will strengthen confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, on the contrary, may amplify concerns regarding economic slowdown.
• Caterpillar (CAT): The global leader in construction and mining equipment will report before trading begins. Caterpillar serves as a barometer for global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. The results are likely to reflect high sales of construction equipment in North America (due to infrastructure projects in the US) and steady demand for mining equipment (supported by high commodity prices in 2025). Key focus will be on order dynamics from China and emerging markets: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions may have impacted CAT’s Asian sales. Additionally, investors will assess finished goods inventories and the size of orders (book-to-bill) to understand whether excess inventory is accumulating with dealers. A strong report from Caterpillar with a positive demand outlook will be an indicator of the global economy’s resilience, while cautious commentary (e.g., about rising rates pressuring builders) may cool enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Corporate Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Apple (AAPL): The highlight of the day will be Apple's report for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year (the fourth calendar quarter of 2025), which will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results for the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at year-end. Focus will be on sales of the iPhone 17 and especially the dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of slowing demand or price pressures there will be scrutinised. Additionally, Apple continues to bet on growth in its services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media) – accelerated growth of service revenue enhances the business's margin profile. Metrics for iPad and Mac after periods of decline are important, as well as the success of new products (e.g., mixed reality headset, if launched). Margins are under close watch: the company previously warned about the impact of a strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple surpasses profit expectations and provides a confident outlook, this will support the entire technology sector and could lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500. However, even a slight disappointment (e.g., weak sales forecast or margin compression) could trigger significant volatility and a wave of profit-taking in tech giants' shares.
• Visa (V): The leading global payment network will also report after the US market closes, presenting results for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year. Like Mastercard, investors view Visa as an indicator of global consumer spending. Steady revenue growth is anticipated, driven by increased payment volumes and transactions. Special interest will be given to data on cross-border transactions, reflecting international tourism and online shopping: in 2025, recovery in travel could have positively impacted Visa's commissions. Management is likely to note the influence of macro factors: inflation (boosting nominal payment volumes), interest rates (which may curb credit spending), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will assess Visa's outlook for 2026: sustaining double-digit growth rates in profit and turnover will be a reassuring signal. Any mentions of slowing consumer activity, tightening regulation (e.g., commission caps), or technological risks could cause a short-term dip not only in Visa's shares but also across the financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: Europe on 29 January is filled with corporate reports from blue chips. Several heavyweights within the Euro Stoxx 50 index are set to release reports: among them SAP (largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for example, strong results from SAP in the cloud business or a positive profit forecast from Roche could support the rise of Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments in banks or the manufacturing sector could amplify investor caution. Additionally, statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will influence the retail and financial sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will balance between domestic factors (company reports) and external developments (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, evening tech reports from the US).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Asian region, attention turns to corporate news from Japan. Major Japanese manufacturers have published quarterly results: for instance, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (global leader in industrial automation) have reported profit. The trends they display are important for understanding the state of the industry: growth in orders for equipment and electronics indicates healthy capital investments in the economy. If Japanese companies deliver better than expected results, Nikkei 225 will get support, especially in the electronics and machinery segments. Additionally, investors in Asia are factoring in reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: the success of Korean chipmakers could positively affect the stocks of Japanese component suppliers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors – for example, the stable yen and news from China – complete the trading picture in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): On the Russian market, there are no financial reports from leading issuers on 29 January, so the dynamics of the MOEX index will predominantly be determined by external factors. In the morning, sentiment will be set by the Asian session (reaction to the decisions from Brazil/South Africa and reports from Samsung), and during the day by the situation on European exchanges. Additionally, oil and gas prices will exert influence: following EIA data on energy inventories, volatility may occur in the oil and gas sector. The rouble remains relatively stable due to high oil prices and export revenue sales, making the currency factor neutral for the stock market at this time. The absence of internal drivers means that investors on MOEX will focus on the overall sentiment: a rise in risk appetite on global markets could push the index up, while negative sentiment from external markets (e.g., a downturn in Nasdaq after Apple's report) may lead to caution and profit-taking by local participants.

Daily Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

1. EM Central Banks: Are Brazil and South Africa signalling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? A dovish rhetoric would support risk demand in emerging markets (bonds, equities), while unexpected "hawkish" tones could locally strengthen currencies (BRL, ZAR) and cool appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple as a Technology Benchmark: Apple's report and forecast will determine the sentiment in the global tech sector. Strong sales and an optimistic outlook will set a positive impetus for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak figures may trigger tech sell-offs. It's essential for investors to evaluate how consumers are responding to Apple's innovations and whether growth in more lucrative services is being maintained.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: The results from Visa (and the morning report from Mastercard) serve as indicators of global consumer demand health. Growth in transaction and travel volumes will affirm the economy's resilience despite expensive credit. However, if payment companies spot signs of slowing expenditures, this could heighten concerns about declining global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: A wave of reporting in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will showcase regional profit dynamics. Releases exceeding expectations will give momentum to local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, confirming that businesses are adapting to new conditions. Conversely, a series of weak results may increase volatility and redirect investor focus to safe-haven assets.
5. US Macroeconomic Data: Though the market is accustomed to weekly statistics, a sudden spike in jobless claims or sharp changes in trade balances/orders could influence expectations regarding Fed policy. Investors should monitor whether the "soft landing" trend of the economy persists: low layoffs, healthy production, and balanced trade will strengthen confidence, while negative surprises could intensify recession risk discussions.