Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, 29 September 2025: Confidence in the Eurozone, US Housing Market and Company Reports

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, 29 September 2025: Confidence Indices and Inflation Expectations in the Eurozone, US Housing and Industrial Market, Trump's Meetings at the White House, and Earnings from Carnival, Jefferies, Vail Resorts, and Other Companies.

Monday presents a mixed agenda for financial markets: in Europe, leading sentiment indicators will be published — the Consumer Confidence Index and inflation expectation figures, while the US will release data on the housing market and regional industrial activity. Concurrently, political intrigue intensifies as Donald Trump conducts meetings in Washington — with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Congressional leaders — amid the looming threat of a government shutdown. On the corporate side, investors will assess the earnings reports from several major companies, including cruise giant Carnival and investment bank Jefferies in the US, as well as resort operator Vail Resorts. In Asia, a relatively calm trading day is unfolding due to the lack of significant local releases, while on the Russian market (MOEX), activity is waning following the peak of half-year results publication. It is crucial for investors to correlate macroeconomic signals with corporate trends while considering the impending end of the quarter, which traditionally accompanies portfolio rebalancing.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 12:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (September, final value).
2. 12:00 — Eurozone: Inflation expectations index among consumers (September).
3. 17:00 — USA: Pending Home Sales Index (August).
4. 17:30 — USA: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index (September).
5. During the day (exact time not announced) — USA: Donald Trump’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu at the White House.
6. Evening — USA: Trump’s negotiations with Congressional leaders regarding the prevention of a government shutdown.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Household Sentiment: The Consumer Confidence Index for September remains in negative territory (around -15 points), indicating ongoing pessimism among European households. A slight improvement compared to August is possible, but the index value remains significantly below the long-term average. Weak consumer confidence limits spending growth and signals sluggish recovery in domestic demand within the Eurozone.
• Inflation Expectations: The inflation expectation indicator reflects how the population perceives future price changes. It is anticipated that the indicator will decline or remain stable, signalling easing price pressure as actual inflation slows. Lower inflation expectations signify strengthened confidence in price stability and may provide the ECB with more leeway. However, if expectations unexpectedly rise, it would raise alarm for monetary authorities, increasing the likelihood of further hawkish comments.
• Market Reaction: Eurozone sentiment statistics will set the tone for European trading. Improvement in consumer confidence could support the retail and services sector (stocks of European retailers and banks), whereas worsening sentiment would reinforce defensive investor sentiment and interest in defensive assets (gold, government bonds).

USA: Housing and Industrial Activity

• Housing Sales: The Pending Home Sales Index for August is expected to indicate a continued cooling of the US housing market. High mortgage rates and a shortage of housing supply are restraining buyer activity. After a decline in July, stagnation or a further slight decrease in signed contracts is possible in August. Weak dynamics in the housing market signify slowdowns in related sectors (construction, furniture, and appliances) and signal how the Fed's rate hikes are impacting the real economy.
• Business Climate in Texas: The Dallas Fed's manufacturing index for September assesses the state of the industrial sector in the region, one of the largest industrial and energy hubs in the US. In August, the index was around zero (-1.8) — a balance between growing and contracting companies. The forecast for September suggests around 0 or a slight positive, indicating stabilization in the manufacturing sector. An increase in the index into positive territory signals improved conditions for Texas manufacturers, which may be supported by high oil prices (benefiting the oil and gas sector). However, a negative index value would heighten concerns that manufacturing is under pressure due to high costs and interest rates.
• Impact on the Fed: Data on housing sales and factory activity will be closely scrutinised by investors regarding the Fed's future policy. Signs of economic slowdown (decline in housing sector, weak manufacturing) strengthen expectations that the Fed will refrain from further rate hikes or even move towards easing. Conversely, unexpectedly strong figures may reignite discussions on maintaining a tight monetary policy for longer.

US Politics: Meetings in Washington and Shutdown Risk

• Netanyahu's Visit: Donald Trump is hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. This diplomatic move signals the administration’s foreign policy priorities: strengthening ties with a key ally in the Middle East and discussing security and investment issues. For the markets, the meeting itself bears more geopolitical weight; however, possible statements regarding strategic cooperation (for instance, in defence or technology) could influence stocks in the defence sector and the high-tech industries of both countries.
• Threat of Budget Crisis: More immediate impacts on the American markets come from the internal agenda. Trump plans to discuss measures with Congressional leaders to prevent a government shutdown. The budget deadline is set for 30 September, and without an agreement, federal agencies face a shutdown starting 1 October. The market consequences of a short-term shutdown are usually limited, but the prospect raises volatility: investors price in a premium for political instability. A prolonged halt in government operations could hit the US GDP, consumer confidence, and lead to stock sell-offs.
• Investor Reaction: News from Washington will directly influence the dynamics of the dollar and government bonds. Signs of progress in negotiations (budget compromise) will support risk appetite, leading to gains in stock indices and strengthening the USD on optimism. In contrast, signs of a standoff and rising chances of a shutdown may push market participants into a "risk-off" mode, reflected in falling stocks, particularly in budget-sensitive sectors (such as defence and transport), and increasing demand for defensive assets.

Corporate Reporting: Before Market Opening (BMO, USA and Europe)

• Carnival Corporation (CCL): The world’s largest cruise operator will present its earnings report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. Investors expect confirmation of the ongoing recovery in tourism demand: in the last quarter, Carnival’s revenue already reached a record $6.3 billion thanks to the active return of passengers post-pandemic. Key focal points include booking volumes for cruises at the end of 2025 and 2026, pricing strategy (average revenue per passenger), and management commentary on the current summer season. Another significant issue is the company's debt load: over the crisis years, Carnival's debt has grown to over $25 billion, and although management is refinancing and prepaying part of its debt, high-interest rates continue to strain expenses. Any signals of a decrease in debt load or improvements in credit metrics will be positively received by the market. Carnival's shares have doubled in price over the last year on hopes for industry recovery, but they remain significantly below pre-crisis levels — the report will help clarify the validity of this optimism.
• Jefferies Financial Group (JEF): The New York investment banking group will report its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 (ended 31 August). Analysts expect revenue and profit growth amid a revival in merger and acquisition activity and the resumption of IPO market activity in 2025. Jefferies may show significant increases in commission revenue within its investment banking division: preliminary estimates suggest that income from consultancy and underwriting of equity and bond issuances has risen by double digits compared to last year. Additionally, market participants will be keenly observing trading business results and portfolio management. A strong quarter would indicate an improving environment in the financial services sector and may set the tone ahead of the earnings season for major banks next month.
• EMEIS (formerly Orpea): In France, the EMEIS group, previously known as Orpea — one of the largest operators of nursing homes and rehabilitation clinics in Europe — will publish its semi-annual results. The company is undergoing restructuring following financial crises and scandals in recent years. Investors will assess whether EMEIS has regained stability: important metrics include organic revenue growth (approximately +6% year-on-year in the previous quarter), recovery in occupancy rates in clinics (occupancy rates approached 85-90% in the second half of the year), and profitability dynamics (EBITDA, margin). Positive shifts in operational indicators will strengthen confidence in the company’s new strategy, whereas continued difficulties or losses may remind investors of ongoing risks. Shares of Orpea/EMEIS previously experienced a sharp decline, so any signs of a successful business turnaround will be met with rising quotes, while new problems may keep investors cautious.

Corporate Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Vail Resorts (MTN): The largest operator of ski resorts in North America will present financial results expected after market close. Vail's report covers the summer period and the end of the financial year, hence the key intrigue will be the forecast for the upcoming winter season. Investors will be interested in the volume of pre-sold Epic Pass season passes for the 2025/26 season: the company previously reported a slight decrease in sold passes (~-1%), counterbalanced by a revenue increase of +2% owing to price rises. Vail's financial health is evaluated based on cash flow stability — over nine months, operating cash flow amounted to approximately $726 million, allowing for investments, dividends, and share buybacks. In the previous quarter, Vail maintained a high dividend (yield around 6% annually), and the market will be looking for confirmation of the sustainability of such payments. Possible risks that management may mention include dependence on weather conditions, tourist demand, and changes in personnel (former CEO Rob Katz has returned to the company). From a valuation perspective, Vail's business trades at approximately 6-7 times EBITDA, and if management expresses confidence in recovering attendance and profitability, the shares may gain upward momentum.
• Other Releases: Besides Vail, several mid-cap technology and industrial companies in the USA will release their earnings after the main session on Monday. For example, software developer Progress Software (PRGS) will report its quarterly results. Although these names do not belong to the "blue chips," their reports could locally affect sentiment in the relevant sectors (in this case, the software sector, through assessments of corporate IT spending and demand for software).

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No major "blue chip" quarterly reports are expected among the companies included in the pan-European index on 29 September. Thus, European investors' attention will be focused on macro data (confidence and expectation indices) and the external backdrop. Fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates (euro and dollar) may also impact the dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50, particularly for energy and export-oriented companies. In the absence of corporate drivers, the index is likely to react to the overall risk appetite, shaped by a mix of European statistics and news from the US.
• Nikkei 225 / Asia: The Japanese market on this Monday is not rich in corporate reporting events — the earnings season for most companies in the Nikkei 225 has already concluded, and reports for the third quarter will commence closer to the end of October. Therefore, global factors will drive Asian markets: sentiments on Wall Street, dynamics of US Treasury bonds, and the yen’s fluctuations against the dollar. Investors will also be looking closely at upcoming data from China (PMI indices, set for release on Tuesday), which may reflect on the commodity and industrial segment of Asian markets. Overall, in the absence of domestic reports, the Nikkei 225 will follow global risk trends.
• MOEX / Russia: In the Russian market, the period of mass corporate reporting (half-year results) is already behind, and no major publications are scheduled for 29 September. Investor activity shifts towards other events — for instance, corporate actions and dividend stories. On this day, shareholders of Gazprom Neft are holding a meeting to approve interim dividends (recommended at 17.3 rubles per share for the first half of the year), attracting attention in the oil and gas sector. In other respects, the dynamics of the MOEX index will depend on external factors (fluctuations in oil prices, geopolitical news) and the currency dynamics of the rouble. After an intense summer, when many issuers disclosed financial results, a relatively calm period is arriving, allowing market participants to assess overall trends in the economy and corporate earnings.

End of Day: Points of Interest for Investors

• 1) European Indicators: Data on confidence and inflation expectations in the Eurozone will set the tone for the morning. Improvement in sentiment will support the euro and stocks of cyclical European companies, whereas a rise in inflation expectations could exert pressure on markets amidst fears of stricter ECB policies.
• 2) US Statistics: Metrics on pending home sales and industrial output in Texas will indicate how significantly rate hikes have cooled key segments of the economy. Weakness in housing and manufacturing will reinforce discussions about potential easing of Fed policy — this is positive for bonds and growth stocks. Conversely, strong reports could raise Treasury yields and provoke a re-evaluation of risk assets.
• 3) Washington Risks: Political uncertainty regarding the US budget remains in focus. Investors should keep an eye on news from the White House: progress in budget negotiations will lower the risk premium, whereas signs of a deadlock may provoke short-term flight from risk assets. Additionally, foreign policy signals (outcomes of the meeting with Netanyahu) could influence specific sectors related to defence and international trade.
• 4) Corporate Reports: Carnival's results will indicate the state of the tourism and cruise industry — strong sales and a positive outlook will boost not only its shares but also the related tourism sector. Jefferies’ report will serve as a barometer for the financial sector: growth in investment banking revenues may enhance sentiment in the banking and brokerage segment. Vail Resorts will provide important benchmarks for the leisure and entertainment industry, including for hotel operators and tourist services. The reaction to these reports will reveal if investors are ready to shift their focus from macro- to microeconomic factors.
• 5) Risk Management: The high concentration of events (macro statistics, politics, earnings) in one day requires heightened attention from investors. Volatility may increase, especially given the approaching end of the quarter and corresponding asset reallocations by institutions. It makes sense to pre-determine key levels for one's positions, use stop orders, and hedge risks if necessary. A balanced approach and diversification across asset classes will help navigate the day of significant news with minimal shocks to the portfolio.