Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 31 October 2025. The First Day of the APEC Summit in South Korea, the Release of China's PMI, Preliminary CPI Inflation Estimate for the Eurozone, Key PCE Price Index in the USA, Canadian GDP Data and Chicago PMI Index, as well as Financial Results from Major US Companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, etc.), Europe, Asia and Russia.
The last Friday of October promises to be eventful for global markets. In Asia, the APEC Summit kicks off in South Korea, where leaders from the Asia-Pacific region will discuss trade cooperation against a backdrop of continuing geopolitical risks. Simultaneously, early morning will bring fresh signals from China: official Business Activity Indexes (PMI) reflect a continued cooling in the manufacturing sector and trends in the services sector. In Europe, the focus will be on the preliminary CPI Inflation Estimate for October, the results of which will assist in determining the next steps for the ECB following a series of tightening measures. In North America, the preferred inflation measure for the Federal Reserve—the PCE Price Index—will be released, alongside statistics on economic activity in both the USA and Canada. The corporate front sees the peak of the quarterly reporting season come to an end, with major US oil and gas corporations and representatives from pharmaceuticals, finance, and industry within the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX set to report. Collectively, macroeconomic data indicating a slowdown in inflation and corporate results will inform investors in the CIS about sentiments—ranging from monetary policy prospects to sectoral ideas in the equity markets.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 04:30 — China: Official Business Activity Indexes (Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing, Composite PMI) for October.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation (CPI, October, preliminary data).
- 15:30 — USA: PCE Price Index for September.
- 15:30 — Canada: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for August (m/m).
- 16:45 — USA: Chicago PMI for October.
Asia: China's PMI and APEC Summit Kick Off
The Asian session begins with the publication of key indicators for China. The official Manufacturing PMI in China has remained below the critical 50-point level for the seventh consecutive month, signalling a continued downturn in the manufacturing sector. A slight decline in the indicator (around 49.5–49.7) is expected, indicating weak domestic and external demand for Chinese industrial goods. Conversely, the Services PMI hovers around the 50 mark, reflecting a slowdown in growth within non-manufacturing sectors—the growth of services is no longer as robust as earlier in the year. Collectively, the Composite PMI is close to the neutral value of 50, demonstrating a lack of clear momentum in China's economy. This data reinforces expectations of additional stimulus measures from Beijing and impacts sentiment in commodity markets (metals, oil), which are sensitive to demand from China.
An additional factor for Asian markets is the APEC Summit, which commences today in Gyeongju, South Korea. During the first day of the meeting, leaders from 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific will discuss the recovery of regional trade and investment cooperation. Particular attention is drawn to potential bilateral talks between major powers—specifically the meeting of representatives from the USA and China—against the backdrop of cooling relations and protectionist trends. Investors hope to hear statements regarding measures supporting free trade and the digital economy. Any positive signals from the summit could enhance risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific markets, while a lack of progress or new trade disputes could increase volatility and pressure on the currencies of emerging markets.
Europe: Eurozone Inflation Continues to Slow
In the afternoon, focus will shift to Europe, where the preliminary estimate of consumer inflation CPI for the Eurozone for October will be released. It is anticipated that both overall and core inflation will continue to decline due to falling energy prices and weakened consumer demand. Economists forecast that year-on-year price growth may slow to its lowest levels in the past eighteen months. Should the data confirm further declines (for example, an overall CPI approaching around ~2% y/y), this would bolster expectations that the ECB will refrain from raising rates at upcoming meetings. The deceleration of core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) is particularly significant for the regulator: this downward trend indicates a weakening of fundamental price pressures in the economy.
For European markets, such favourable inflation news could act as a growth driver. A decline in inflation traditionally supports the bond market (Eurozone government bond yields may fall) and enhances prospects for sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and auto lending. Additionally, moderate price growth increases the real purchasing power of households, which is beneficial for retail and service companies. Investors will also monitor inflation trends in major economies within the bloc—particularly in Germany and France—to assess the coherence of declining price pressures across the region. If inflation slows more than expected, discussions regarding potential stimulative measures from the ECB in the longer term may arise, although the official rhetoric from the regulator remains cautious for now.
USA: PCE Indicator Signals Declining Price Pressure
The American macroeconomic agenda is centred around inflation and business activity. At 15:30 MSK, the US Department of Commerce will release its report on expenditures and income, including the PCE Price Index for September. This index—particularly its core component (Core PCE)—is considered the key measure for the Federal Reserve in assessing inflation risks. Expectations indicate a further slowdown in year-on-year PCE price growth due to declining housing costs and stabilising service prices. If the data confirms this trend (for example, a decline in core PCE closer to target 2% year-on-year), market participants will strengthen their belief that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes or may even shift towards easing policy next year. This, in turn, could weaken treasury yields and the dollar, supporting the growth segment of the American equity market.
In addition to inflation data, investors will analyse business activity indicators. The Chicago PMI Purchasing Managers' Index for October, released towards the evening, will allow assessment of industrial conditions in the Midwest USA. A slight increase in the index is anticipated following its drop to 40.6 points in September; forecasts suggest the index could rise to around 42–43. Although the value will remain deep in contraction territory (below 50 points), the mere fact of improvement signals a possible bottoming in the regional manufacturing cycle. Nonetheless, the 22nd consecutive month of negative Chicago PMI values underscores the persistent difficulties in the US manufacturing sector: weak corporate demand, high inventory levels, and business caution in response to previous Federal Reserve rate hikes. For a comprehensive perspective, investors will also consider fresh data on employment and consumption from the accompanying report (personal income and expenditures for September), which will help calibrate expectations ahead of more extensive measures such as the ISM report and labour market statistics due next week.
Canada: GDP Stagnation Signals to the Bank of Canada
Coinciding with the US PCE release, essential data on Canada's economy will emerge—monthly reports on GDP for August. According to preliminary estimates from the statistical office, the Canadian economy saw virtually no growth at the end of summer (with GDP changes expected around 0.0–0.1% m/m). This stagnation in Canada's industrial and resource sectors reflects the impact of high-interest rates and weakening external demand, particularly from the USA and China. If the official data confirms the lack of growth, it will mark the third month of near-zero dynamics, indicating waning economic activity. For the Bank of Canada, such a signal serves as an additional argument for maintaining the current interest rate unchanged: in a cooling economy, the regulator is unlikely to pursue further monetary policy tightening.
Market reactions to Canadian GDP will primarily affect the Canadian dollar (CAD) exchange rate and the local debt market. Continued economic weakness could lead to a modest decrease in CAD against major currencies, considering the prospects of a more dovish stance from the Bank of Canada. At the same time, Canadian stocks (especially in the banking and real estate sectors) may receive support on expectations of future rate reductions. Investors will also pay attention to accompanying data—such as sector-specific details from the report (extraction, processing, services)—to determine which sectors are dragging down the economy. Overall, the combination of stagnant GDP and weakening inflation in North America creates a conducive environment for debt markets and reinforces confidence that the peak in interest rates has already been surpassed.
Reports from Oil and Gas Giants: ExxonMobil and Chevron
The highlight of corporate reporting on this Friday will be the results of the largest oil and gas companies in the USA—ExxonMobil and Chevron. These energy sector titans (part of the S&P 500 index) will release their financial figures for the third quarter before the American market opens. Analysts expect a decline in revenue and profit on a year-on-year basis, attributed to lower oil and gas prices compared to last year's record levels. However, what will particularly interest investors is the business's profitability and capital allocation plans. Despite the drop in revenues, both ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to reaffirm their commitment to generous dividends and large stock buyback programmes—crucial factors in their attractiveness to long-term investors.
Market attention will also be focused on operational details. ExxonMobil may provide updated information regarding its significant oil projects (including shale production in the Permian Basin and development in Guyana) and report progress in its petrochemical business. Chevron is expected to comment on production in the Permian region and metrics from the downstream segment (refining and marketing petroleum products), where margins may have improved as fuel demand increased. Any surprises—such as better-than-expected free cash flow figures or changes in capital expenditure forecasts—could prompt noticeable price movements for these companies and affect the entire energy sector. Additionally, the results from Exxon and Chevron will serve as a barometer for the global oil and gas industry: their reports will reveal how effectively the sector is adapting to price volatility and stricter cost discipline.
Other Corporate Reports of the Day
In addition to the oil and gas sector, 31 October is rich with financial releases across several other industries worldwide. In the USA, several companies from the S&P 500 will present their reports, including:
- AbbVie (ABBV) – a pharmaceutical giant. Investors are keenly observing the sales dynamics of key drugs, particularly new immunological agents compensating for revenue declines from expired patents. Focus is on profit forecasts amidst competition in the biotechnology segment.
- Aon plc (AON) – a global leader in insurance brokerage and risk management. The company’s results will provide insights into the state of the insurance market: growth in commission revenues and the effect of high-interest rates (via investment income from insurance reserves) will be key metrics.
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL) – a major FMCG company in the consumer goods sector. Its quarterly sales and profit figures will shed light on how price changes and improved consumer sentiment in the USA and Europe are influencing demand for everyday products. Investors will separately assess the margin levels: whether Colgate can maintain profitability while reducing raw material and logistics costs.
- Linde plc (LIN) – the largest industrial gas company in the world (part of the S&P 500 and previously DAX 30). Linde's report serves as an indicator of global industrial activity: demand from electronics, healthcare, and chemical sectors. Synergy metrics from its merger with Praxair and forecasts for free cash flow will be crucial for evaluating business resilience.
- Canadian National Railway (CNR) – a railway operator in Canada and the USA. The financial results of this transport company reflect cargo volumes in North America, thus indirectly indicating economic activity. Investors will look to the freight turnover dynamics (transportation of oil, grain, consumer goods) and cost efficiency, particularly under potential strike activity or weather risks.
- Dominion Energy (D) – one of the largest energy utilities in the USA. Its report will provide an understanding of trends in electricity and gas demand, as well as the impact of interest rates on the heavily indebted utility sector. Key points include strategies to reduce debt burdens, progress on infrastructure projects, and management comments on tariff regulation.
In Europe and Asia, the reporting flow on 31 October is less dense, as the bulk of releases have occurred earlier in the week. However, investors continue to digest the previously released results from European banks and industrial conglomerates, as well as reports from Japanese exporters. In the Russian market, the quarterly reporting season is nearing its end: major issuers on the MOEX have reported profits for the first nine months slightly earlier or will present data in early November. No significant corporate releases are expected in Russia today, so the attention of Russian investors is primarily focused on macroeconomic signals—such as the latest inflation data for October and prospects for the Central Bank of Russia’s policy. Overall, the breadth of the corporate agenda on 31 October—from US tech firms to Asian manufacturers—provides a comprehensive picture of the state of the global economy at the end of the quarter.
Day's Summation: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Global Inflation on the Decline: Key price indicators—CPI in Europe and PCE in the USA—are due to be released today. Their slowdown confirms the trend of easing inflation, which is vital for rate forecasts for the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Investors should evaluate how closely the data aligns with expectations: lower inflation will support the growth of bonds and equities, while an unexpected spike may temporarily cool the market.
- Signals from Asia: Business activity in China (PMI) and news from the APEC summit set the tone for Asian assets and commodities. Continued weak PMI will indicate the need for stimulus and may pressure metal and oil prices, whereas diplomatic successes at APEC could lift investors' spirits. Those investing in Asian markets or commodity companies should consider these factors in their decision-making.
- Energy Sector in Focus: Reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron will clarify the status of the oil and gas industry. Important are not just the profit figures (which are expected to be lower than last year), but also comments on cash flows, dividends, and investments. The reaction of oil stocks will provide signals across the entire energy segment, including related high-yield bonds and commodity currencies (e.g., Canadian dollar, Russian rouble).
- Corporate Surprises: A wide range of companies from the USA and other regions (from pharmaceuticals to industry) are publishing results that could drive movements in individual stocks and sectors. Investors should monitor whether these companies have exceeded expectations or lowered forecasts—this will help in timely adjusting portfolio compositions to increase exposure to promising sectors or decrease exposure to troubled ones.
- Risk Management on a Volatile Day: The last day of the month combines several significant events, which may lead to heightened price fluctuations. It is advisable to pre-determine key levels for positions, using stop orders and limit orders. Increased attention to correlations (e.g., between bond yields and the technology sector, or between oil prices and currencies) will enable prompt responses to incoming news and protect capital from unexpected volatility.
