Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Saturday, 7 February 2026: Elections in Japan, China's Reserves, and Central Bank Pause

Saturday brings a semblance of calm following an intense week: financial markets are digesting recent central bank decisions and corporate reports, while investors are gearing up for a series of events that could set the tone for the start of the new trading week. No significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for today; however, all eyes are on a major political event: the early parliamentary elections in Japan. Concurrently, market participants are monitoring signals from China (including the update on January's foreign currency reserves) and assessing the effects of the suspension of statistical releases in the United States due to a government shutdown. In this environment, Saturday serves as a pause for reassessment and preparation for upcoming market movements.

The global macroeconomic landscape is experiencing a lull: major central banks have synchronously held interest rates steady, confirming a wait-and-see approach. The US Federal Reserve maintained its rate at 3.5–3.75% during its January meeting, signalling a desire to evaluate the impact of previous easing measures. The European Central Bank, following its meeting on 5 February, also left rates unchanged (with the deposit rate still around 2.15%), noting that inflation in the eurozone is close to target, and more time is needed to assess price dynamics. The Bank of England likewise voted to keep rates at 3.75% – a decision made by majority in the context of declining inflation and moderate economic growth in the UK. In Japan, the Bank of Japan earlier in January kept its key rate at 0.75%, but the upcoming early **parliamentary elections** (on 8 February) may indirectly affect future monetary policy in the country. Central banks are signalling a pause in the cycle of rate changes, allowing markets some time to stabilise: bond yields are fluctuating within a narrow range, while currencies of emerging markets receive support from a weakening US dollar. At the same time, investors are awaiting the resumption of American statistical services – the delay in the release of crucial indicators (such as January's employment report) adds uncertainty, but it is expected that publications will resume next week.

US equity markets ended the week cautiously, exhibiting mixed dynamics. On Friday, major indices recouped some of their losses: the Dow Jones rose approximately 2%, reaching a historical high, the S&P 500 gained around 1.6%, and the Nasdaq strengthened by ~1.8%. However, even this rally did not completely offset the downturn of recent days – the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded losses for the week (the third loss in the last four weeks for the high-tech index). Earlier in the week, concerns over overheating in the tech sector and the substantial expenditures of leading companies on artificial intelligence exerted pressure on the market, leading to some profit-taking by investors. An additional factor of uncertainty was the delayed publication of key US statistics: due to the government shutdown, the release of the January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, traditionally pivotal for market sentiment, was postponed to 11 February. In the absence of fresh data, investors relied on corporate results and forecasts. Yields on US Treasury bonds remained relatively stable (with 10-year UST around 4.2%), reflecting expectations of further easing by the Fed during the year. The US dollar weakened slightly against major currencies: the USD index declined to the 97–98 mark as the Fed's pause and the lack of economic surprises reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the US market enters the weekend with cautious optimism – participants are looking forward to the resumption of macro data publication and seeking new indicators in corporate announcements.

European stock indices approached the weekend without significant changes, playing out signals from the ECB and local statistics. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fluctuated in a narrow range last week, closing on Friday near the levels of the previous close. European investors received confirmation of the anticipated scenario: the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and confirmed that inflation is gradually slowing towards the target of 2%. This bolstered confidence that no rate increases will be forthcoming in the near future and provided support to interest-sensitive sectors – especially banking and real estate, which benefited from the stabilisation of borrowing costs. Nonetheless, the macroeconomic picture in the region remains mixed. Preliminary GDP data for several eurozone countries for Q4 2025 is expected to be published next week, and markets are holding their breath in anticipation: forecasts indicate weak positive growth for Germany and France, while the UK may show stagnation or a slight decline. The FTSE 100 held close to local highs despite the Bank of England's pause – many export-oriented companies have benefited from a relatively weak pound. The European energy sector displayed neutral dynamics: oil prices stabilised while the gas market remained balanced. In the absence of shocks, investors in Europe are focused on corporate news and preparing to assess new data on industrial production and inflation in order to adjust expectations for ECB policy by March.

Asian markets generally maintain cautious optimism, although investor attention is shifting to regional events. Japan is at the centre of the Asian agenda, where on Sunday, 8 February, early general elections for the lower house of parliament will take place. Prime Minister Sanae Takachi is hoping to solidify her government's mandate; political stability or instability may reflect on the dynamics of the yen and Japanese equities at the beginning of the week. Ahead of the elections, the Nikkei 225 index traded without significant changes: investors took a wait-and-see approach, considering that opinion polls suggest the ruling coalition will maintain a majority, but intrigue remains regarding seat distribution. The Japanese market is also digesting signals from the Bank of Japan – though the regulator has not altered its rate, it has indicated that further steps will depend on the post-election economic policy of the government and inflation dynamics, which in Japan have begun to accelerate towards 2%. In China, cautious optimism prevails: official data indicate that economic stabilisation continues. An update on the volume of China's international reserves for January is expected today – analysts project a figure around $3.35 trillion, comparable to the previous month. Stable foreign exchange reserves indicate a relative balance of capital flows and support for the yuan from the regulator. The mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets demonstrated moderate growth last week on expectations of stimulus measures: authorities in the PRC have promised to support the banking sector with additional liquidity ahead of the extended holidays for the New Year (the Spring Festival will begin on 17 February). Additionally, investors welcome signs of a recovery in domestic demand – data on production and retail sales, to be released early next week, will help gauge the strength of this trend. Overall, Asian exchanges are concluding the week without upheaval: MSCI Asia ex-Japan shows slight gains, supported by growth in Indian and Southeast Asian markets. Regional currencies, including the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, remain resilient, benefiting from the Fed's pause and capital inflows into emerging markets.

The Russian equities and currency market demonstrate stability at the end of the week amidst external calm and domestic news. The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) concluded Friday's trading with a slight rise, consolidating near local highs. This was aided by a relatively favourable environment in commodity markets: Brent crude oil prices remain around $65 per barrel, which is comfortable for Russian exporters and the budget. The Russian rouble has appreciated slightly in recent days, trading near 74 roubles to the US dollar, supported by stable oil and gas revenues and currency sales by exporters under the budget rule. Investors are also evaluating fresh macro data: according to the Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit for January 2026 was preliminarily estimated at around 1.7 trillion roubles (0.7% of GDP) – significantly higher than a year earlier due to a 50% year-on-year decline in oil and gas revenues (to 393 billion roubles) while non-oil revenues rose by 4.5% year-on-year. While such a start to the year raises questions about the stability of fiscal policy, authorities assure that the situation is under control and that the deficit will decrease as quarterly tax payments are received. OFZ bond yields remain calm: yields for ten-year bonds fluctuate around 10.5–11%, reflecting expectations for easing monetary policy soon. Indeed, all eyes are on the Bank of Russia – its next meeting on the key rate is scheduled for 13 February. Market participants are factoring in a high probability that the Central Bank of Russia will hold the rate steady at the current level (15% annually) after a series of increases in the second half of 2025. The slowing inflation in Russia (consumer prices rose by less than 0.5% month-on-month in January) and the strengthening rouble create a foundation for a shift in the regulator's rhetoric. Nonetheless, any potential rate cut may only occur closer to spring, should inflation expectations steadily decline. Overall, the Russian financial market enters the weekend in a balanced state: investors consider high interest rates and budgetary risks, but see support from exports and the readiness of regulators to deploy tools to maintain stability if necessary.

Saturday traditionally does not bring new financial report publications, so investor attention is focused on the outcomes of the past week and expected releases in the coming days. On a global level, the earnings season for Q4 2025 is ongoing, and several leading companies have already disclosed results that have set the tone for the market. Here are some of the most notable cases across regions and sectors:

Apple (USA): The tech giant reported record revenue for the holiday quarter of 2025 – sales reached $143.8 billion (+16% year-on-year) thanks to strong demand for new iPhone models and growth in service offerings. Profit and margins also exceeded analyst forecasts. Apple management highlighted consumer demand resilience and announced an expansion of the buyback programme, which was positively received by the market: the company's shares remained close to all-time highs.
Amazon (USA): The largest e-commerce and cloud company presented mixed results: Q4 revenue grew approximately 14% year-on-year; however, quarterly profit fell short of expectations. Moreover, Amazon's capital expenditure plans for 2026 (around $200 billion, including investments in AI infrastructure and logistics) alarmed investors regarding the scale of expenditures. Against this backdrop, Amazon's shares dropped by ~8%, reflecting concerns about business margins. Nevertheless, management assures that investments will yield long-term growth in the cloud and advertising segments.
LVMH (Europe): The world's largest luxury goods conglomerate (brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët Hennessy, among others) concluded its financial year for 2025. Annual revenue was approximately €80.8 billion, which is 5% lower than the record level of 2024, partly due to currency factors and a slowdown in fashion and leather goods sales. Operating profit fell by ~9% year-on-year. LVMH management noted that demand stabilised in the second half of 2025, especially in the USA, and expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating a recovery in growth in China after relaxed restrictions. Investors reacted neutrally to the results: LVMH's shares have remained within the range of recent months, taking into account the already factored slowdown.
Toyota (Japan): The automaker released results for Q3 of the 2025 financial year (October–December). Toyota's revenue increased by ~7% due to global car sales growth and a weaker yen; however, operating profit has declined for the third consecutive quarter. Profitability faced pressure from rising costs and new import tariffs in the USA, leading to a decrease in operating profit of about 15% year-on-year. Nevertheless, the company maintained its annual forecast and announced a leadership change: Kento Kon will take over as CEO in April 2026. The market reacted calmly to the news: Toyota shares traded with minor fluctuations, considering the profit decline had been anticipated.
Sberbank (Russia): The leading Russian bank concluded 2025 on a positive note. For Q4, according to preliminary unaudited estimates, Sberbank demonstrated a twofold increase in net profit year-on-year, capitalising on high interest rates and increased loan margins. The loan portfolio continued to expand, particularly in the corporate segment, and asset quality remains stable. Such results effectively guarantee record annual profits for the bank and shape expectations for generous dividends for 2025. Investors have a positive outlook for Sberbank: its shares have been steadily rising in recent weeks, considering the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia later in 2026, which could stimulate further demand for loans.

Thus, Saturday, 7 February 2026, is passing relatively calmly, yet a series of events loom that could significantly affect global market sentiment. Investors should take advantage of this pause for analysis and prepare for potential volatility. Key indicators for the coming days and weeks include the following:

Political Events in Asia: The results of the early elections in Japan will be known on Sunday. The maintenance of a stable government or an unexpected outcome may influence the yen's exchange rate and the dynamics of the Japanese market, as well as set the tone for trading in the Asia-Pacific region at the beginning of the week.
Important Macroeconomic Data: In the US, the publication of the key labour market report (Non-Farm Payrolls for January) has been postponed to 11 February, traditionally a determinant for Fed policy expectations. Additionally, investors are anticipating US inflation data (CPI for January) throughout the week – although their release schedule may shift, their significance for the market will remain high. In Europe, attention will be focused on preliminary GDP estimates for the UK and eurozone for Q4 2025: these figures will indicate how confidently the largest economies are addressing current challenges.
Commodity Price Dynamics: Prices for oil and other commodities remain important indicators for the global market. Brent crude hovers around comfortable $60–65 per barrel after coordinated OPEC+ actions to regulate production. Over the weekend, investors should keep an eye on any statements from major oil exporters – unforeseen comments or decisions from the cartel could lead to price fluctuations. Volatility in the commodity market will directly reflect on the currencies and shares of resource-producing countries (Russian rouble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, shares of oil and gas companies, and metallurgists).
Monetary Policy and Bond Markets: Following the synchronous pause by the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, investors will be looking for hints on the regulators' future moves. Next week, the Bank of Russia is scheduled to meet (on 13 February) – any changes in rates or rhetoric from one of the few central banks still maintaining a stringent policy will attract the attention of global players. Furthermore, comments from representatives of the Fed, ECB, or Bank of Japan in the coming days could adjust rate expectations for the upcoming months. Bond yields, especially US Treasuries and German bunds, will be sensitive to these signals and will set the direction for the entire capital market.
Geopolitical Risks and Sudden News: In the context of relative calm regarding scheduled events, unexpected information could serve as a trigger for shifts in sentiment. Negotiations on the international stage (such as dialogue regarding Iran's nuclear programme, trade discussions between the US and China, or news from Ukraine) could emerge over the weekend. Investors must remain vigilant to news feeds: any major statements from politicians, sanction decisions, or unforeseen events could lead to short-term strong movements in individual assets and sectors.

This period of calm provides an opportunity for investors to reassess their strategies and balance their portfolios before upcoming events. Analysing recent trends – from corporate financial results to signals from central banks – will aid in making informed decisions. A busy week lies ahead, and attentiveness to the factors outlined will allow for timely reactions to changes in market conditions, keeping portfolios aligned with updated realities. Global markets are at a crossroads: the outcome of the elections in Japan, US statistics, and new economic indicators will determine the direction of capital movement, and a prepared investor will meet them ready for action.