Analysis of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, December 4, 2025: Putin's Visit to India, Macron's Visit to China, Brazil's GDP, US Jobless Claims, Canada's PMI, and Global Companies' Reports
Thursday promises a diverse agenda for investors in global markets. Worldwide stock indices—from the American S&P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 to the European Euro Stoxx 50 and the Russian MosBirzhi index—are hovering around recent highs amid signs of decelerating inflation and dovish signals from central banks. Attention now shifts to fresh economic events and corporate reports: high-level diplomatic visits in Asia, key macroeconomic data (Brazil's GDP, US employment statistics, Canada's PMI), as well as the financial results from several major companies. Investors will need to correlate these factors with market dynamics: strong growth and employment figures will support risk appetite, whereas negative surprises may heighten volatility.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 00:30 — USA: Weekly API Oil Inventory Report.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Retail Sales (October).
- 15:00 — Brazil: GDP for Q3 2025.
- 16:30 — USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week).
- 18:00 — Canada: Ivey PMI Business Activity Index (November).
Asia
- On this day, Asian markets will not receive significant new statistics, thus regional indices (such as Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai Composite) will be influenced by external signals. Investor sentiment in Asia largely depends on global trends and news, and the lack of domestic data makes them more sensitive to events in the US and Europe.
- Force majeure: The state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to China continues (December 3-5). Meetings are taking place in Beijing aimed at strengthening trade and economic cooperation between the EU and China. Although breakthrough agreements are not anticipated, the mere fact of dialogue between two major economies underscores China's geo-economic significance. For the financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region, the direct impact of these negotiations will be neutral; however, any statements following the visit could temporarily increase volatility in specific sectors (such as aviation or technology if relevant deals are discussed).
Europe
- The Eurozone will publish retail sales data for October (13:00 MSK). It is anticipated that this indicator will remain close to neutral after a slight decline in September. The state of consumer demand is a crucial indicator of economic health in Europe: an unexpected drop in sales would heighten concerns about economic slowdown, while growth above forecasts would support European stocks and the euro.
- European markets are generally having a day without significant domestic upheavals and will primarily assess external factors. The focus will be on corporate reports from individual companies: for instance, German metallurgical group Aurubis will release its financial results, while British retailer Frasers Group will report its operational successes. These news items could trigger movement in the respective stocks, but the impact on the broader European market will be limited. The Euro Stoxx 50 index maintains relatively stable dynamics, reacting primarily to overall signals regarding the global economy and monetary policy.
Russia
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is commencing an official visit to India (December 4-5). Negotiations with Indian leaders will focus on deepening trade ties, energy cooperation (including potential new agreements on oil and gas supplies), and joint investment projects. The signing of large contracts—such as in the defence industry or raw materials sector—has the potential to strengthen the positions of Russian corporations in these fields. However, in the short term, this visit is likely to have a limited impact on the dynamics of the Russian stock market, acting more as a strategic factor than an immediate market driver.
- In the Russian domestic market, no new macro data is expected on Thursday, following the publication of November's inflation data the day before. The corporate reporting season on the MosBirzhi is nearing its end, with most large issuers having already disclosed their results for the third quarter. In the absence of fresh domestic triggers, investors will keep an eye on external factors: oil prices, global market movements, and currency influences. The Russian ruble is maintaining a relatively stable range around 78 to the dollar, receiving support from export earnings and currency interventions by the Ministry of Finance.
USA and Americas
- In the US, the focus is on the labour market. Weekly initial jobless claims (16:30 MSK) will serve as a leading indicator ahead of the key employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls) on Friday. If the number of new claims decreases significantly, this will confirm the resilience of the labour market, potentially fuelling expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Fed (putting pressure on bonds and supporting the dollar). Conversely, an increase in the number of claims will indicate an economic cool-down and weaken arguments for a rate hike, which could be positively received by stock indices.
- In Latin America, the main release will be Brazil's GDP for the third quarter. Moderate growth is expected in the region's largest economy, supported by resilient domestic demand and commodity exports. Strong data will bolster investor confidence in the prospects of emerging markets and support the Brazilian Bovespa index, while weak GDP figures may lead to a capital reallocation towards more reliable assets. Additionally, at 18:00 MSK, Canada’s Ivey PMI business activity index will be released, reflecting the state of Canadian business in November. A PMI reading above 50 will indicate economic expansion and could strengthen the Canadian dollar, while a declining index will amplify discussions about potential stimulus from the Bank of Canada.
- Corporate reporting (USA and Canada): Several large companies will publish their financial results, leading to increased volatility in specific stocks. Before the opening of the American exchanges, quarterly reports from leading Canadian banks (Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC), as well as one of the largest US retailers, Kroger, will be released. After market close, reports will come from tech giant Hewlett Packard Enterprise, beauty retailer Ulta Beauty, discount retailer Dollar General, e-signature software developer DocuSign, among others. Should the results surpass expectations, the related stocks could rise sharply, setting a positive tone for the sector overall (from financials to consumer goods). Conversely, disappointing results could trigger sell-offs in specific segments and hinder the growth of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
Commodities and Currencies
- The oil market is keeping a close eye on the American Petroleum Institute (API) data on crude oil inventories in the US, which will be released overnight. Preliminary estimates indicate a reduction in commercial stocks amidst increased fuel consumption during the holiday shipping period. If the actual decline in inventories exceeds expectations, Brent and WTI prices are likely to receive additional upward momentum. Conversely, an increase in stocks or a less significant reduction could halt the price rally. Additionally, traders are evaluating the outcomes of the recent OPEC+ meeting and signals regarding future production, which affect mid-term expectations in the oil market.
- Overall, a relative equilibrium remains on the commodities markets. Industrial metals are trading slightly higher, supported by a revival in demand in China, while precious metals are consolidating after recent gains. The currency market reflects a softening Fed rhetoric: the US dollar index is decreasing to recent lows, allowing currencies of emerging markets and commodity currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) to feel more confident. The euro and pound are maintaining stability against the dollar, supported by local data. Concurrently, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable, balancing the influences of recent rises in oil prices and domestic factors. Investors are closely monitoring trends in the currency market to timely assess risks for their international portfolios.
What Investors Should Consider
- US Labour Market Data: The number of new jobless claims will provide an early signal regarding the health of the economy ahead of the official employment report. A sharp drop in claims will bolster growth expectations and may shake bond yields, while an increase in claims will support arguments for a timely easing of Fed policy.
- Quarterly Reports from Market Leaders: The financial results of companies such as Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, and the largest Canadian banks reflect the health of multiple sectors—from consumer demand to the banking system. It is essential for investors to compare published figures with forecasts: exceeding expectations may drive stock prices in these sectors up, while weak results could lead to declines and a reassessment of sector valuations.
- Oil Market Situation: The dynamics of oil prices following the API report on inventories will provide clues for the oil and gas sector. A significant reduction in stocks and a subsequent rise in oil prices will improve sentiment in the energy segment and support export-oriented markets (including Russia), while an unexpected increase in inventories may temporarily weaken oil futures and related company stocks.
