Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Monday, February 9, 2026: ECB Head's Speech, Geopolitical Factors, Global Earnings Season, and Investor Benchmarks.
USA
Economy: The new week in the USA begins without major macroeconomic statistics on Monday, as the publication of key indicators has been postponed due to the recent government shutdown. However, investors are closely watching the January Consumer Inflation Expectations Index from the New York Federal Reserve, which will be released today - this indicator will help gauge household sentiments regarding inflation. Additionally, several Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to speak: comments are anticipated from Board members, including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic. The market will be looking for signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy, especially in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. On the political front, attention in the USA is drawn to Congress's decision to gain access to secret materials related to the Jeffrey Epstein case - this move reflects lawmakers' efforts to achieve transparency and may resonate within society, although it does not have direct implications for investments. Concurrently, the US administration is also active in foreign policy: Vice President J.D. Vance is visiting Armenia today, followed by Azerbaijan, discussing trade-investment and infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus region. These geopolitical moves indicate Washington's intent to strengthen economic ties and stability in this strategically important region, which indirectly interests global investors.
Corporate Reports (S&P 500, February 9): The American earnings season continues today, with several companies reporting quarterly results before and after the market opens. Before trading begins, reports from several S&P 500 and mid-cap companies will be released, including Becton Dickinson (medical equipment), Apollo Global Management (alternative investments), and Cleveland-Cliffs (steel industry). Investors will evaluate the revenue dynamics of these companies and their forecasts, especially considering the impact of interest rates and demand for commodities. The IT services company Kyndryl (a spin-off from IBM) and the teamwork platform monday.com will also report in the morning, providing insights into the technology sector and corporate demand for services. After the main session closes, attention will shift to the technology and industrial sectors: ON Semiconductor (a major chip manufacturer), Amkor Technology (contract semiconductor manufacturing), Goodyear (a leading tire producer), and Arch Capital Group (insurance and finance) will publish their results. Investors are also expecting reports from the online freelancing platform Upwork and several other mid-sized companies. Of particular interest will be ON Semiconductor – its earnings per share and revenue forecasts will signal the state of the global semiconductor industry, which serves as a barometer for the technology sector and the stock market overall. Today's corporate reports from the USA will help assess whether companies are maintaining earnings growth momentum amidst a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.
Europe
Economy: The European agenda is focused on the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde before the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Lagarde will present a report on the ECB's activities and priorities for the upcoming year. She is expected to outline the further strategy for combating inflation and supporting the Eurozone economy. In turn, MPs are likely to urge the ECB to gradually unwind the crisis measures introduced during the pandemic and restore more market mechanisms to financial markets (including reviving interbank lending instead of excessive dependence on ECB loans). An important topic of debate will be the digital euro – the European Parliament is likely to support initiatives for creating a digital currency while emphasizing the need to retain cash in circulation for financial inclusivity. Any comments from Lagarde regarding interest rate prospects, inflation, or the euro's exchange rate may influence investor sentiment in Europe. In addition, the UK will release the KPMG/REC report on the labour market for January, reflecting the state of hiring and the availability of skilled workers – this data is particularly interesting after the Bank of England unexpectedly opted to keep rates unchanged last week, expressing concern over a weakening labour market. Additionally, the second estimate of Eurozone GDP for Q4 will be published today: preliminary figures indicated growth of +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and confirmation or revision of this figure may adjust growth expectations for the region. Overall, today's economic events in Europe create a mixed backdrop: moderate economic recovery amidst still elevated inflation and cautious regulatory stances.
Corporate Reports (Euro Stoxx 50, Europe): The European earnings season is also picking up pace, although Monday is not the busiest day for releasing results from major companies. Several corporations from the Euro Stoxx 50 index will present financial reports either today or in the coming days. For example, TotalEnergies and Repsol (oil and gas sector) could draw attention with updated earnings data amid price volatility in energy commodities, as well as Societe Generale and other banks continuing the series of bank reports in Europe (most major banks in France and Germany have already reported last week). Key releases today include a report from Dutch semiconductor company NXP Semiconductors (part of the broad European index), which will indicate whether demand for chips from the automotive industry and electronics manufacturers in Europe and Asia is being maintained. Furthermore, investors are attentive to data from German industrial conglomerate Siemens: while its full report is expected later, the company may share preliminary figures or news regarding orders, given recent signals of industrial recovery in Germany. Overall, European companies have so far demonstrated mixed results during this earnings season: strong exports and a weaker euro support manufacturers, while increasing costs and interest rates weigh on the financial sector and retail. Today's reports will help clarify this picture, although the main flow of European annual results will be concentrated in the second half of February.
Asia
Economy: Asian markets have started the week on a positive note, buoyed by political and economic news. In Japan, the ruling coalition achieved a convincing victory in the snap elections for the Lower House of Parliament that took place over the weekend. Investors welcomed the continuity of power under Prime Minister Sanae Takichi – a stable parliamentary majority eases the government's ability to implement economic reforms and stimulative measures. Against this backdrop, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index continues to hover near multi-year highs, supported by a flow of funds into export-oriented stocks. In China, attention is focused on upcoming inflation data: tomorrow, the January CPI figures will be released, with analysts predicting a slowdown in annual inflation to around +0.4% (down from 0.8% in December). If these expectations are confirmed, it would signal that deflationary risks in China are gradually easing amid recovering domestic demand. Additionally, data on lending and housing price dynamics are expected in China: the housing price index is likely to record its 31st consecutive monthly decline, reflecting a prolonged correction in the real estate market. In other parts of Asia, secondary but indicative figures are being released: India will report January's inflation rate (crucial for the prospects of a policy shift from the Reserve Bank of India), and Australia has released data on business and consumer confidence, demonstrating a recovery in sentiments post-lifting of lockdown restrictions. Overall, the Asian economic landscape today combines political stability (Japan) and cautious optimism regarding inflation (China), which supports global investors' interest in Asian assets.
Corporate Reports (Nikkei 225, Asia): In the Asia-Pacific region, it is the mid-point of the financial year for many companies, especially in Japan, where most corporations end their fiscal year on March 31. Nevertheless, several large Asian companies are reporting quarterly results today. In Tokyo, after the market closes, several members of the Nikkei 225 index will report. Among them is SoftBank Corp. (telecommunications and internet services), which will announce the results for the third quarter of the 2025 financial year. SoftBank Corp.'s report is of interest to investors: while the telecom business is stable, the market is looking for comments on the prospects of 5G and internet services, as well as the impact of yen fluctuations on profits. Additionally, Japanese recruitment giant Recruit Holdings will report its quarterly earnings figures; these results will serve as indicators of the job recruitment market and online recruitment, not only in Japan but globally (as the company owns services like Indeed.com). In the technology sector, the report from Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (a semiconductor materials manufacturer) is noteworthy – improvements are expected due to rising demand for chips. In Seoul and Shanghai, Monday is relatively calm: major Korean and Chinese companies have either reported earlier or will do so later in the week. Thus, Asian corporate reports today are spotty but significant: they indicate that despite external challenges, many Asian firms continue to maintain sustainable growth. Regional investors will be particularly attentive to companies' forecasts regarding global demand and currency fluctuations to adjust their investment strategies.
Russia
Economy: In Russia, the new business week begins against the backdrop of a continuing tight monetary policy. Although there are no key macroeconomic indicators being published on Monday, investors are already looking ahead to the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of the week. The Bank of Russia will meet to decide on interest rates, and the market consensus expects the key rate to remain at 16.00%. This high rate reflects the regulator's relentless battle with inflation: according to recent data, annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in January (up from 5.6% in December), significantly exceeding the target of 4%. Tightening monetary conditions is already impacting economic activity – consumer demand is cooling, mortgage lending is slowing, and the government is developing support measures for specific sectors. The ruble remains relatively stable around 79-80 against the US dollar, receiving support from high oil prices and currency sales by exporters. Meanwhile, there are no significant movements in the commodity market today: Brent oil is trading around $82 per barrel, and Russian energy exporters continue to generate solid revenues. Therefore, the economic backdrop in Russia on February 9 consists of anticipation for the central bank's important decisions and balancing between inflationary risks and the need to support economic growth.
Corporate Reports (MOEX, Russia): On the Moscow market, Monday is relatively quiet in terms of corporate events – there are no major public companies releasing financial reports on February 9. The Russian earnings season for 2025 is just beginning, with the main releases of annual results for major issuers still ahead. Investors are preparing for the flow of reports, which traditionally peaks in the second half of February and March. For example, leading banks (Sberbank, VTB), oil and gas giants (Gazprom, Lukoil), and metallurgical companies will soon present their results. Some corporations have already shared preliminary data: for instance, the steel company Severstal reported last week a nearly 80% decline in net profit for 2025 and decided not to pay dividends for the fourth quarter. This is a worrying signal from the metallurgical sector, where a combination of export duties, sanctions, and rising costs is severely compressing margins. However, in other sectors, more positive results are anticipated – for example, retail chains and IT companies may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand at the end of the year. The absence of major reports today allows investors time to analyse the already published data and prepare for the critical releases in the coming weeks. The overall mood is cautious: the market is carefully monitoring corporate news to adjust their stock portfolios on the Moscow Exchange based on fresh financial results and announced dividend policies.
Earnings Season in the USA: Results and Statistics
The American stock market is in the midst of the quarterly earnings season, and overall results are pleasing investors. To date, the majority of companies in the S&P 500 have already reported their earnings for Q4 2025, demonstrating business resilience even amid economic slowdown. Approximately 76% of companies have exceeded analysts' earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, which is slightly below the average figure for the past 5 years (~78%) and aligns with the decade average (~76%). Around 73% of companies reported revenue exceeding consensus expectations – this result is even better than the historical norm (approximately ~70% over the past 5 years and ~66% over 10 years). This indicates that the share of positive sales surprises is at a high level, pointing to sustained demand. The average size of the earnings beat is around +7–8%, close to the familiar values of previous years. Such figures indicate that the earnings season in the USA is thriving, although the growth of corporate profits is no longer as rapid as in prior quarters. It is noteworthy that investors are comparing current results to record figures from past years; therefore, even a slight beat of forecasts is received positively. The technology and communications sectors have made a significant contribution to the overall figures – many IT giants have reported better-than-expected results, supporting the entire S&P 500. About 40% of companies have yet to publish their reports, but the trend is set: the American corporate sector largely continues to exceed profit and revenue forecasts, albeit with less margin than a year ago. For comparison, on average over the last 5 years, about 3/4 of companies beat EPS forecasts, so the current season is statistically close to normal. This fact instills cautious optimism – the US stock market is receiving support from fundamental factors, partially offsetting macroeconomic uncertainty.
Global Perspective: Regional Trends
The picture of global markets at the beginning of the week is heterogeneous but generally moderately optimistic. The USA continues to demonstrate resilience in corporate profits, even amid economic slowdown – investors hope that a combination of strong reports and easing inflation will allow the Fed to pause in rate hikes. The US stock index S&P 500 strengthened last week and is currently consolidating, responding to each new signal from the Federal Reserve and fresh data. Europe, on its part, shows signs of gradual improvement in macro conditions: the revision of Eurozone GDP for Q4 confirmed slight growth, while the ECB's political steps aim to balance combating inflation and supporting the economy. However, European exchanges remain sensitive to Christine Lagarde's comments – any hints at changes in the ECB's course (e.g., an earlier rate cut or, conversely, a prolonged pause) could trigger movements in the euro and reallocate capital between bonds and equities. Asia, at the beginning of 2026, appears relatively stronger: the Japanese market is hitting records due to a combination of the Bank of Japan's soft monetary policy and political stability, while the Chinese economy gradually recovers from recent restrictions. An important global indicator – commodity prices – remains stable: oil, metals, and food are trading without sharp fluctuations, reducing global inflation risks and supporting emerging markets (including Russia). Russia, although partially isolated from global markets by sanctions, remains integrated through commodity flows: price stability in energy resources benefits its economy, although domestic issues (high inflation and interest rates) restrain the growth potential of the Russian stock market. Regionally, one can conclude that the USA and Asia are the growth engines in the eyes of investors, while Europe and Russia are more vulnerable links, each for their reasons (the Eurozone is balancing between inflation and stagnation, while Russia is navigating between profitable exports and internal financial challenges). Overall, the sentiment is moderately positive: the MSCI World index remains close to its peaks in recent months, and volatility (VIX) stays at low levels, indicating a relatively calm risk appetite. Nonetheless, all regions ahead face their challenges – from American inflation and European energy issues to Chinese credit risks – so interregional discrepancies in market dynamics may persist.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Focus On
In conclusion for the day, investors in the CIS are advised to maintain vigilance and a measured approach to their strategies. Investment strategies at this stage should consider several key factors:
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Macroeconomic Signals: Pay attention to important data that will be released in the coming days – in the USA, this includes the delayed statistics on the labour market (Nonfarm Payrolls) set for February 11 and the CPI inflation figures on February 13. These indicators can significantly influence global risk appetite and the direction of the dollar, reflecting on all markets, including Russia. In Europe – the outcome of Lagarde's speech and the second estimate of GDP, and in Asia – China's inflation figures. The market's reaction to these economic events will signal how justified the current sentiments are.
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Corporate Reports and Forecasts: The ongoing flow of quarterly results necessitates selectivity. Investors should pay special attention to companies that not only exceed earnings and revenue forecasts but also improve guidance for future periods. Such firms typically lead in their sectors and can pull stock indices upward. In the USA, over three-quarters of companies have reported results better than expectations – this serves as a good benchmark for identifying market "stars." The picture is less homogeneous in Europe and Russia, making it essential to understand the specifics of each sector. For instance, in Russia, metal producers are struggling due to market conditions, while oil and gas giants may surprise positively due to exports. The earnings season is a period of heightened stock volatility: this can be leveraged through portfolio rebalancing, adding more global names with strong earnings reports (such as US or Asian stocks), while cautiously approaching high-risk positions.
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Monetary Policy and Geopolitics: Central bank rhetoric is as crucial now as the numbers themselves. Investors should focus on regulators' comments – both from the US Fed (several members have already signalled readiness to pause the tightening cycle) and the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Russia. Any hints at changes in course can shift capital flows between equities, bonds, and commodity assets. On the geopolitical front, several potential risks persist: negotiations and visits from high-ranking officials (such as Vance's visit to the Caucasus) indicate movement in diplomacy, but unforeseen events – such as escalating tensions anywhere – can always shift market sentiments. Currently, no significant negative shocks are visible, but diversification across regions and sectors remains the best protection against geopolitical surprises.
Ultimately, today sets the tone for the entire week: investors should evaluate the first signals and news of Monday and be prepared for active actions as new information emerges. Maintain focus on fundamental indicators – profit, revenue, economic growth – and avoid succumbing to short-term noise. Much data and reports are still ahead, and accurate interpretation will help construct an effective investment strategy even amidst instability. Remember that discipline and a long-term perspective are the best allies for an investor in today's dynamic market. Happy trading!
