Economic Events and Earnings: Thursday, 30th October - US GDP, ECB and Bank of Japan Rates, Trump and Xi Meeting

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on 30 October 2025: Meeting Between Trump and Xi, Bank of Japan and ECB Rate Decisions, US and Eurozone GDP Publication (Q3), as well as Releases from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Thursday promises to be eventful for global markets as several key events are poised to dominate the agenda. In Asia, investors are anticipating the Bank of Japan’s decision on interest rates, which could significantly influence the yen’s exchange rate, along with the meeting between former US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, a pivotal moment that may dictate the trajectory of US-China relations. In Europe, the main drivers of the day include preliminary GDP estimates for Q3 from France, Germany, and the eurozone, which will be released shortly before the ECB’s meeting. The European regulator will announce its rate decision in the afternoon and may provide fresh signals regarding monetary policy amidst ongoing inflation concerns and economic slowdown. In the US, the first GDP estimate for Q3 and new labour market data will serve as a litmus test for economic resilience following a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Alongside the macroeconomic landscape, the lively corporate earnings season continues: today, several major companies from the technology, financial, energy, and consumer sectors in the US, Europe, and Asia will disclose their results. It will be crucial for investors to evaluate these data and events collectively to timely adjust their strategies and account for any potential shifts in market trends.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MST)

?? — USA/China: Meeting between Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping (exact time not announced).
06:00 — Japan: Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
09:30 — Japan: Bank of Japan press conference (Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or his successor comments on the decision).
09:30 — France: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
12:00 — Germany: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
?? — Russia: The State Duma of the Russian Federation reviews the Main Directions of Unified Monetary Policy for 2026–2028.
13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (October).
13:00 — Eurozone: Inflation expectations from the population (October).
13:00 — Eurozone: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
15:30 — USA: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary).
15:30 — USA: Initial claims for unemployment benefits (weekly).
16:15 — Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision.
16:45 — Eurozone: ECB press conference (President Christine Lagarde comments on the decision and outlook).
17:30 — USA: Natural gas inventories (EIA, weekly).

Bank of Japan: Interest Rate and Yen Exchange Rate

The monetary policy of Japan is under intense scrutiny: the Bank of Japan may either maintain its negative interest rate or signal a gradual shift away from its ultra-loose stance. Any hints towards a policy change (for example, adjustments to yield curve control) could trigger a sharp movement in the yen's exchange rate.
Inflation in Japan exceeds the 2% target; however, the regulator is exercising caution, weighing risks to economic growth. Investors will analyse the rhetoric from the Bank of Japan: increased emphasis on inflation risks could set the stage for future rate hikes.
Market reactions to the decision are anticipated: a stronger yen and rising yields on Japanese government bonds are expected if the Bank of Japan adopts a more hawkish tone. This could ripple through global markets, elevating yields on bonds in other countries and altering demand for risk assets, particularly stocks in the financial sector and exporter-oriented companies.

Europe: GDP and ECB Decision

Preliminary GDP data for France, Germany, and the eurozone in Q3 will reveal whether the European economy has managed to avoid a downturn. A slowdown in growth or a technical recession (especially in Germany) would amplify pressure on the ECB to adopt a softer policy tone, whereas unexpectedly robust growth would support a more hawkish stance from the regulator.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision: following an extended series of hikes, the regulator is likely to pause by autumn 2025. Investors will focus on Christine Lagarde's comments regarding inflation and economic prospects. Any indication of potential rate cuts in 2026 could weaken the euro and support European equities, while retaining a hawkish rhetoric would intensify pressure on the debt market.
The ECB press conference will also highlight inflation expectations: updated consumer confidence indices and price expectations for October will be released on the same day. If households and businesses anticipate further inflation slowdown, the ECB may have leeway for a more accommodative policy. However, high inflation expectations could prompt the regulator to remain vigilant, despite an economic slowdown.

USA: Q3 GDP and Labour Market

The first estimate of US GDP for Q3 2025 will serve as a barometer for the health of the world's largest economy. Analysts expect moderate growth; however, surprises may arise from fluctuations in consumer spending or investment. A GDP growth surpassing expectations could drive up Treasury yields and enhance speculation regarding prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, typically negative for growth stocks. Conversely, weak GDP data could revive discussions about policy easing in 2026, but might also incite recession fears.
The composition of GDP growth will be just as crucial as the headline figure. Investors will pay close attention to trends in consumer spending (the backbone of the US economy), business investments, and trade. For instance, robust consumer demand will support retail and service sector firms, whereas falling investment could weigh on the industrial sector.
Weekly data on initial jobless claims will complement the labour market picture. Current claims remain at historically low levels, indicating sustained strength in the labour market. However, any surge in claims could signal an early indication of economic cooling. For the Federal Reserve, employment status remains a critical benchmark: persistently low unemployment allows for a firm policy stance, while rising claims could argue in favour of easing in the future.

USA-China: Meeting Between Trump and Xi

Geopolitics re-emerges as a focal point: investors are looking for cues of détente or, conversely, renewed tensions from the meeting between former and possibly future US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Topics concerning trade relations, tariffs, and technology restrictions are likely to be central in the discussions. Positive statements following the meeting could heighten risk appetite in global markets, particularly benefitting shares of Asian companies and the technology sector.
Nevertheless, uncertainty looms large: any harsh statements from Trump regarding China or a lack of concrete agreements could disappoint the markets. Heightened protectionist rhetoric from the US may exert pressure on supply chains and shares of global companies dependent on production and demand in China (automotive, electronics, luxury sectors).
The context of the meeting is the US electoral season (2024) and the recently strained US-China relations. Investors will scrutinise official comments closely, attempting to assess whether the tone of dialogue between Washington and Beijing is likely to soften. Even minor steps towards cooperation (e.g., resuming extensive trade talks or reaching agreements on technology exports) could provide momentum for emerging markets and commodity goods.

Corporate Earnings: Pre-Market (BMO, USA and Asia)

Merck & Co (MRK) — Pharmaceuticals. Focus: sales of key medications (including oncology drugs and vaccines) and profit outlook amid a changing pharmaceuticals market.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — Biopharmaceuticals. Key focus: revenue dynamics from new drugs, strategy for replacing drugs with expiring patents, and an updated annual forecast.
Mastercard (MA) — Global Payment Systems. Monitoring transaction volumes and consumer spending: sustainable growth in payments signals a healthy economy, while a slowdown may indicate household caution.
Comcast (CMCSA) — Media and Telecom. Attention on new subscribers for internet and streaming services, as well as advertising revenues and the development of the Peacock platform; investors will assess how the company balances its media and telecom businesses.
S&P Global (SPGI) — Financial Services (indices, credit rating agency). Important metrics: volumes of bond issuance (for the ratings business) and demand for analytical data. A dip in business activity could harm the services segment, while volatility in markets often boosts demand for indices and data.
Biogen (BIIB) — Biotechnology. Focus: success in commercialising new medications (particularly Alzheimer's therapies), revenue growth in the neurology sector, and adequacy of funds for developing the next generation of drugs.
Hitachi Ltd — Industrial Conglomerate (Nikkei 225, Japan). Focus: orders in the infrastructure division and demand for IT services. Hitachi’s results will provide insight into the state of industrial investments and technology in Asia.
Hyundai Motor Co — Electric Vehicle Manufacturer (South Korea). Key focus: global automobile sales and operating margin. Particular emphasis on growth in the electric vehicle segment and exports; investors will evaluate how production costs and currency exchange rates have impacted Hyundai’s profitability.

Corporate Earnings: Post-Market (AMC, USA)

Amazon.com (AMZN) — E-commerce and Cloud Services. Key metrics: growth in online sales (especially during the holiday shopping season) and dynamics in the cloud business revenue (AWS). Investors also await signals on the impact of AI integration costs and logistics expansion on Amazon's margins.
Cloudflare (NET) — Cloud Infrastructure and Cybersecurity. Focus: growth in corporate segment revenue and progress towards sustainable profitability. Metrics on new subscriptions to Cloudflare services and retention rates of large clients will indicate whether demand for web security and content delivery networks remains high.
Atlassian (TEAM) — Enterprise Software Developer (Australia). Monitoring the trend in paying users and successes in transitioning clients to cloud versions of Jira, Confluence, and other products. Management comments on macro demand conditions for software: are companies cutting IT expenditures or continuing to invest in collaborative tools?
Roku (ROKU) — Streaming Platform and Devices. Critical focus: growth in active user accounts and revenue from the platform (advertising and content). Investors will assess whether Roku has managed to reduce losses through cost optimisation and how competition from Smart TVs impacts device sales.
Coinbase (COIN) — Cryptocurrency Exchange. Important metrics include trading volumes and revenue from fees amidst market volatility for crypto assets. The report will reveal if Coinbase has managed to reduce losses regardless of Bitcoin prices, as well as whether executives provide insights regarding the regulatory landscape in the US and prospects for crypto-ETF approvals.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) — Pharmaceuticals. Focus: sales of key medications (for HIV, hepatitis, and oncology) and progress in developing new drugs. Investors will evaluate how competition from biosimilars influences revenue and whether Gilead has new growth drivers in areas such as cancer immunotherapy.
DexCom (DXCM) — Medical Devices (glucose monitoring systems for diabetics). Key focus: expansion of the user base and revenue growth, particularly in international markets. Profitability metrics and forecasts for new sensor generations will determine DexCom’s position in the competitive medical tech market.
Illumina (ILMN) — Genomics. Focus: demand for sequencers and consumables for genetic research, plus developments surrounding its subsidiary Grail (early cancer detection). Investors anticipate margin improvement from Illumina and clarity on strategy following a protracted dispute with regulators over its acquisition of Grail.
First Solar (FSLR) — Solar Energy. Monitoring the volume of new orders for solar panels, production capacity expansion plans, and the influence of semiconductor/raw material prices on production costs. First Solar's results will serve as an indicator of the health of the renewable energy sector amidst fluctuating energy prices.
Western Digital (WDC) — Data Storage Manufacturing. Focus: signs of recovering demand for hard drives and flash memory, along with updates on a potential deal to spin off its NAND business (in partnership with Kioxia). A recovery in pricing conditions in the memory market could mitigate losses, while delays in structural changes leave long-term profitability in question.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe on 30 October, it is the peak of the earnings season for major companies. Oil and gas giants Shell and TotalEnergies will present results for Q3, likely reflecting high profits from trading and extraction amidst volatile energy prices. The financial sector remains in focus due to reports from Deutsche Bank (banking sector) and AXA (insurance), signalling the health of the industry in the context of high interest rates. Nonetheless, the overall tone for the European market will be set by macroeconomic indicators (GDP) and the ECB's decision—significant surprises here could overshadow individual corporate news impact.
Nikkei 225 / Japan: The financial reporting season for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year (Q2) continues for Japanese companies. A number of industrial and technological leaders, including Hitachi (machinery and IT) and Advantest (semiconductor equipment), will publish results reflecting global demand for capital goods and chips. Astellas Pharma will present its figures, offering insights into the pharmaceutical sector. Investors in Tokyo are also considering external factors: sharp movements in the yen following the Bank of Japan's meeting may influence valuations for exporters and the overall market mood.
MOEX / Russia: The Russian market has reached the peak of financial results publication for the first nine months of 2025. Key emitters are reporting: for instance, Sberbank reported a ~6.5% year-on-year increase in net profit (IFRS) to over 1.3 trillion roubles, while Gazprom reduced its net loss under RAS for the nine-month period. On 30 October, results from several other large companies in the energy, metals, and retail sectors are expected. Traditionally, the main wave of "blue chip" releases occurs from late October to early November. Investor attention is also focused on signals from the State Duma concerning monetary policy and the overall external backdrop; these factors impact the sentiment in the domestic market alongside corporate news.

Day Summary: Key Considerations for Investors

Central Banks and Bonds: The morning decision by the Bank of Japan and the evening ECB meeting will set the tone for global markets. Changes in the regulators' rhetoric directly impact bond yields and exchange rates (yen, euro), and through them, affect the attractiveness of banking sector stocks (sensitive to interest rates) and exporting firms.
US and Eurozone GDP: Macroeconomic data (notably US GDP) could trigger noticeable market fluctuations. An unexpectedly robust US economy would intensify expectations of a sustained firm Fed policy and may lead to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in yields, weighing on equities, particularly in the technology sector. Conversely, weak data would raise discussions about potential future rate cuts, supporting bonds and possibly growth-oriented segments of equities.
USA-China: The outcomes of Trump and Xi's meeting is an essential geopolitical risk factor. Any signs of thawing relations (e.g., agreements on trade or technology) could uplift investor sentiment, boosting Asian regional stocks and commodity prices. Conversely, if the tone remains confrontational, defensive assets (yen, gold) may gain support, while stocks dependent on China may come under pressure.
Corporate Earnings: Close attention should be paid to key companies. Before the market opens, reports from Merck, Mastercard, and other giants will be of interest, potentially setting the tone for the healthcare and financial sectors. After the close, there will be a special focus on the technology sector: results from Amazon and companies like Cloudflare, Roku, and Gilead could drive movements in individual stocks and indeed the entire Nasdaq, drawing attention away from macro statistics.
Risk Management: The day is packed with events—high volatility is likely in forex, yields, and numerous assets. Investors would do well to pre-define acceptable fluctuation ranges for their portfolios and establish protective targets (stop-loss orders, hedging) in case of sharp movements. Divergent impulses from macro data and earnings necessitate heightened awareness of correlations across markets (e.g., "US yields ↔ tech stocks" or "China news ↔ commodity currencies") to timely rebalance positions.