Economic Events and Corporate Earnings - Tuesday, 13 January 2026: US CPI and Earnings Season Kick-off

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on January 13, 2026. US CPI, Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, US Housing Sales and Budget Statistics, API Oil Data, and Financial Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Tuesday presents a packed agenda for global markets: investors are focused on the December inflation data from the US, which is likely to set the tone for the performance of risk assets. In Europe, attention is directed towards the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, which may impact the pound's exchange rate and sentiment in the UK market. Concurrently, in the US, the corporate earnings season for the fourth quarter kicks off, with major banks and companies set to release their results, providing initial guidance on the state of the business economy. The energy sector will be tracking the evening oil inventory statistics (API) to complement the macroeconomic picture. It is crucial for investors to assess these indicators in conjunction: US inflation ↔ Fed expectations ↔ bond yields ↔ currencies ↔ commodities ↔ risk appetite.

Macro Economic Calendar (MSK)

1. 12:00 – UK: Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, at the economic forum.
2. 16:30 – US: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
3. 18:00 – US: New Home Sales (October data).
4. 22:00 – US: Federal budget for December (monthly report from the Treasury).
5. 00:30 (Wed) – US: Weekly oil inventory figures from API.

Key Points to Note in the US CPI

• Core Inflation (Core CPI): This is a key indicator for the future policy direction of the Fed. Forecasts anticipate a slowdown in the core index to approximately 2.6% year-on-year; confirmation of this downward trend would bolster expectations for an easing of monetary policy and support the stock market. Conversely, if Core CPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen hawkish sentiment within the Fed, driving up yields on Treasury bonds and placing pressure on equities, particularly in the technology sector.
• Price Structure: Investors will analyze the contribution of service prices (especially housing) and goods to the overall index. A deceleration in rental and service price growth signals a weakening inflationary pressure in more stable components. Conversely, an unexpected increase in these categories could indicate persistent inflation inertia.
• Market Reaction: Following the CPI release, sharp movements in the US dollar and bond yields are possible. A strengthening dollar amidst high CPI figures could lower commodity prices (oil, gold) and emerging market currencies, whereas softer inflation data would weaken the dollar and create a favourable environment for risk assets.

UK: Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England

• Tone of Monetary Policy Commentary: Andrew Bailey's address at 12:00 MSK is anticipated as a significant event for the pound and the UK market. If the Bank of England's Governor indicates that inflation in Britain remains elevated and further policy tightening may be required, it would support the GBP and the banking sector, but could pressure the FTSE 100. Conversely, softer, "dovish" signals (such as confidence in declining inflation and a pause in interest rate hikes) may weaken the pound, albeit positively for exporters and stocks of UK export-oriented companies.
• Assessment of the UK Economy: Investors will also look for hints regarding the state of the UK economy as it approaches 2026 in Bailey's remarks. Commentary on growth rates, labour market conditions, and credit availability may adjust expectations regarding Bank of England policy. Any mentions of financial stability or the banking sector will be vital for understanding the regulator's risks and sentiments.

US: Housing Market and Budget Indicators

• New Home Sales: Data on New Home Sales (for October) will provide additional insight into the US housing market's condition. Although this indicator is lagging, the trend in new home sales reflects the impact of high interest rates on buyer demand. An improvement or stability in this metric could signal resilience in consumer demand and support shares of homebuilding companies, while a sharp decline would indicate a cooling property market due to expensive mortgages.
• US Federal Budget: The evening Treasury report on the December budget will reveal the size of the deficit or surplus at year-end. A substantial deficit will remind markets of fiscal risks, such as rising government debt and the potential for increased borrowing in the new year. While monthly budget data rarely impact the market immediately, their analysis is crucial for long-term investors: a trend towards expanding deficits may eventually pressure bond yields and necessitate consideration in strategies for 2026.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Opening (BMO)

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): The largest bank in the US will report ahead of the session. Investors are keen to see how high interest rates have impacted the bank's net interest income and margins. Key focus areas include lending volumes and provisions for potential loan losses: an increase in reserves may indicate management's caution regarding economic prospects. Trading and investment banking results from JPMorgan for the fourth quarter will also be critical: strong figures would suggest resilience on Wall Street, while weak investment banking performance would reinforce a continuing downturn in the M&A and IPO markets. JPMorgan's forecast regarding the US economy and the banking sector for 2026 will serve as a crucial benchmark for the financial market.
• Bank of New York Mellon (BK): This leading global custodian bank will release its results before market opening. For BNY Mellon, fee income from custody and asset management services is vital, dependent on market dynamics and institutional client activity. Investors will assess whether assets under management/custody have grown amid market volatility at year-end. Another area of focus is interest income on client deposits: rising rates may have improved margins but could also stimulate outflows into more lucrative instruments. Management's commentary on global market conditions and capital flows will guide stock performance in the European and US financial sectors.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): One of the world’s largest airlines will report on its fourth quarter, encompassing the holiday season. In Delta's report, investors will seek signs of consumer demand resilience for air travel: high load factors and passenger traffic metrics will indicate that travel remains a priority for consumers despite the economic climate. Particularly significant will be the trend in revenues per available seat mile (PRASM) and comments on airfare pricing – reflecting Delta’s ability to pass increased costs (fuel, personnel) onto customers. Should Delta improve its margins or provide an optimistic revenue outlook for 2026, it would support the entire airline sector. However, a cautious view on business travel or expenses could weigh on sector stocks.
• Concentrix (CNXC): This American provider of business process outsourcing will report before markets open. The company is well known for its contact centre and customer support services for corporations worldwide. Investors will be interested in Concentrix’s revenue growth against the backdrop of digitalisation and its merger with Webhelp (which closed earlier in 2025) – the synergy from this consolidation may have enhanced business scale. Profitability metrics will be scrutinised: whether the operating margin has been maintained given integration costs and salary inflation within the services sector. Concentrix’s forecast for corporate client demand in 2026 will signal whether companies are continuing to invest in customer service and IT outsourcing, even amid economic uncertainty.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC)

• No significant releases are expected after the close of the main session on Tuesday. The corporate calendar for the evening of January 13 is sparse, with most major issuers from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scheduled to release financial results in the following days. Thus, investors will not see substantial corporate intrigue after market closure, and the evening news flow will be relatively calm.

Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500 (US): On Tuesday, the US stock market enters a new earnings season. Morning releases from heavyweights like JPMorgan and Delta will set the tone for the financial and transport sectors. As the S&P 500 index previously reached high levels, investors are carefully evaluating the first reports: whether corporate earnings can justify market confidence. Additionally, the performance of the S&P 500 on this day will depend on CPI data – strong banking earnings could shift focus from macroeconomic factors to micro-level stories, but unexpected inflation figures could provoke broader market fluctuations.
• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No quarterly earnings releases are scheduled among the blue chips of the Eurozone for January 13. European markets will primarily be guided by external factors – the market reactions to US inflation data and signals from the UK. The absence of significant corporate drivers in the euro index means that macroeconomic news and currency dynamics (especially EUR/USD and GBP/USD following Bailey’s speech) may play a decisive role. It is also worth mentioning some local reports: for instance, the UK company Games Workshop (FTSE 250) will publish its half-year results, and the German agri-holding Südzucker will report quarterly – these releases are important in their respective sectors but are unlikely to impact the wider market.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese market continues to report results from companies with non-standard fiscal years. There are no significant reports expected from Nikkei 225 giants on Tuesday; however, investors are observing second-tier corporate news. Notably, the retail pharmacy supermarket chain Cosmos Pharmaceutical will present its financial results for the first half of the year, reflecting consumer activity in the pharma retail sector. Overall, trading activity in Tokyo will likely be determined by the overall sentiment in global markets after the US data release: the Japanese index is sensitive to changes in risk appetite and yen fluctuations; thus, any surprises in the CPI may affect the Nikkei 225’s dynamics.
• MOEX (Russia): No significant financial reporting by major issuers is expected on the Moscow Exchange on January 13 – the reporting season for quarterly and annual results of Russian companies typically starts later in January and February. Some activity may be observed in terms of operational updates from individual companies or board meetings regarding dividends; however, these events are unlikely to significantly affect the MOEX index. In the absence of domestic drivers, the Russian market will follow global market sentiment and oil price dynamics: CPI data from the US and external factors will set the main direction for the rouble and the value of Russian assets on Tuesday.

Day’s Summary: Points of Interest for Investors

• US CPI: The publication of inflation data in the United States will serve as the main trigger of the day. Investors should prepare for a spike in volatility at 16:30 MSK: any deviation of actual CPI from forecasts will instantly reflect on the dollar exchange rate, yields, and global stock indices. Special attention should be paid to core inflation; its slowdown may provide an impetus for stock growth, while an unexpectedly high figure could lead to discussions of new measures by the Fed and possibly a short-term sell-off in risk assets.
• Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England: Andrew Bailey's speech has the potential to shift expectations for UK interest rates. For investors engaged in the currency market, tracking GBP reactions is essential: any hawkish comments from Bailey may strengthen the pound and impact European financial stocks, while a softer tone may yield the opposite effect. Additionally, this address will provide insight into the regulators' sentiment in Europe at the beginning of the year.
• Corporate Reports in the US: The start of earnings season dictates thematic movements within the market. Strong results and forecasts from JPMorgan, Delta, and other companies prior to opening may support their respective sectors (banking, transport), shifting focus from macro indicators to corporate narratives. However, investors should compare corporate trends with the macro backdrop: for instance, even solid banking reports may be overshadowed by negativity arising from high CPI, and vice versa, moderate inflation could amplify the positive impact of strong earnings from companies.
• Oil and Commodity Prices: The oil market will receive signals from API's crude oil inventory report in the evening (00:30 MSK Wednesday). Although this indicator is preliminary, an unexpected increase or decrease in stocks could shift oil prices, impacting the stocks of the oil and gas sector and the currencies of commodity-exporting countries. Coupled with the inflation data (energy component of CPI), this will help ascertain the direction of the commodities segment. Commodity investors should stay alert after the main trading closes.
• Risk Management in a Busy Day: The combination of important macro data and initial major reports creates conditions for heightened volatility. It is recommended to pre-determine acceptable ranges for portfolio fluctuations and set stop orders or hedging positions, particularly when trading over short horizons. In such an information-rich market, it is wise to avoid excessive leverage and emotional decision-making: it is better to wait for key indicators to be released and then make informed investment steps based on facts rather than forecasts.