Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, 16 January 2026: US Industrial Production, Inflation in Russia, Baker Hughes Data on Oil and Gas, Earnings Reports from Major Public Companies. An Overview for Investors.
Friday brings to a close a busy macroeconomic week. US stock indices are reaching new highs, European markets are aiming for growth, and Asian trading is occurring in a calm manner following public holidays. Investors are focused on key economic reports. This evening, data on US industrial production for December will be released, based on which experts will assess economic dynamics and inflation risks. At 19:00 Moscow time, the Central Bank of Russia will publish consumer inflation data for December. The energy sector will receive insights from the weekly Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs. Major companies are also in focus as they release their financial results, with several large banks expected to report in the US this week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 10:00 — Germany: final consumer price index (CPI) data for December (month-on-month).
- 16:15 — Canada: number of building permits for new homes for December.
- 17:15 — USA: industrial production data for December and capacity utilisation rate.
- 19:00 — Russia: consumer price index (CPI) for December (year-on-year).
- 20:00 — USA: weekly Baker Hughes report on active drilling rigs (oil & gas).
US Industrial Production
The industrial production index reflects the activity of the manufacturing sector and is a crucial indicator of the economy's health. Significant fluctuations can influence expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. Should industrial production show acceleration, it could heighten the risk of further interest rate hikes. Conversely, a weak result may bolster a softer policy stance. It is essential for investors to note the disparity between declining industrial output and the performance of the services sector, as this signals an overarching trend in the US economy. Moreover, data on capacity utilisation will indicate whether there is excess or scarcity of production resources.
Consumer Inflation in Russia
CPI data from Russia is traditionally viewed through the lens of the Central Bank's rate decision. Inflation in December may show a decline following New Year purchases but could still remain at double-digit levels. Should annual price growth exceed expectations, it may exert pressure on the rouble and slow down the pace of monetary easing. Investors should monitor discrepancies between core and headline inflation, along with trends in food and service prices. These figures will largely determine the trajectory of the Central Bank's interest rate in the coming months.
Oil and Gas Sector: Baker Hughes Report
The weekly Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs serves as an indirect indicator of future oil supply. A decrease in the number of rigs in the US indicates potential declines in production and supports oil prices. Conversely, an increase in drilling activity could raise concerns about market oversupply. Investors will closely watch the rig count in the US and the Permian region while also considering the overall dynamics of international energy demand. Changes in the rig count are often accompanied by corrections in Brent and WTI prices.
US Corporate Reports
- PNC Financial (PNC): A major regional bank in Pennsylvania. Expected to publish Q4 2025 results: key focus on net interest margin growth and the quality of the loan portfolio amid elevated rates.
- Regions Financial (RF): One of the leading southern banks in the US (Alabama). The report will reflect the macroeconomic impact on deposit rates and loan volumes in the regional economy.
- State Street (STT): A significant provider of custodial services and asset management based in Boston. Results will mirror the state of global equity markets and the volume of inflows into investment funds.
- M&T Bank (MTB): A regional bank in New York focused on private and corporate clients. Important indicators will include net interest income trends and provisions for loan losses.
Corporate Reports from Europe and Asia
In Frankfurt and London, no significant financial releases from major companies are scheduled for 16 January. Analysts anticipate the onset of the European reporting season later in January, primarily from banks and manufacturers. In Asia, the week concludes with a steady recovery of liquidity following public holidays: markets in Japan and China are open on Friday, but no major announcements are expected from Nikkei 225 or Shanghai Composite constituents. The upcoming week may bring the first reports from Asian giants; however, today, global investors are focused on the US banking sector.
Russian Companies: Operational Results
- Aeroflot (AFLT): The national carrier has released operational data for December. Last month, international traffic grew (~+9% YoY passenger turnover), while the domestic market contracted (~-3%). For 2025, the group's passenger traffic stood at approximately 55.3 million people, nearly on par with the previous year. This indicates a recovery in international destinations alongside moderate domestic demand.
- Major Russian exchange-listed issuers (in the oil, gas, and finance sectors) are not providing reports on 16 January. It is expected that by the end of January or February, reports from Sberbank, Gazprom, and other MOEX leaders will be released. Currently, the dynamics of rouble-denominated assets are influenced by external factors (oil prices, dollar exchange rate).
Investor Takeaways
- The relationship between inflation and rates. US data on industrial production will provide additional signals regarding the Fed's trajectory: accelerating production growth may bolster monetary policy tightness, while weak figures could set the stage for a more accommodative stance.
- Russian CPI and the rouble. If annual inflation growth in Russia surpasses expectations, it may weaken the rouble and necessitate a delay in lowering the key rate. The national currency is responsive to New Year and seasonal price effects.
- Oil and commodities. The Baker Hughes report may amend expectations for oil supply. A reduction in rigs implies contraction in production, which supports Brent in the long term. Investors should monitor the dynamics of WTI and commodities.
- The corporate sector. The results of US banks (PNC, RF, STT, MTB) will set the tone for the financial sector. Strong reports may propel bank stocks upward, while issues could trigger sell-offs. Attention should be paid to loan portfolios and net interest margins.
