Calendar for Tuesday, 16 September 2025: US Retail Sales, Germany's ZEW, EU and US Industry, Canada's CPI, API Oil Report; Corporate Earnings from Ferguson, Flux Power and Evolution Petroleum. Key Highlights for CIS Investors.
Trade Negotiations and Geopolitics
The US and China are signalling a thaw in relations. At negotiations in Madrid, representatives from both countries announced a framework agreement that could lead to an resolution of the dispute surrounding the TikTok application—this lessens tensions in the tech sector. A phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is also anticipated later this week to discuss further trade relations. Concurrently, the US and India are resuming trade dialogue, with talks taking place today in New Delhi following a recent exchange of increased tariffs. Markets hope that both sides will find common ground and avoid escalating the conflict. Overall, the geopolitical backdrop appears moderately positive: the risk of full-scale trade wars has diminished, although regional conflicts and sanctions continue to temper excessive optimism.
Key Macroeconomic Releases (Moscow Time)
- 09:00 – United Kingdom: Unemployment rate (June–August) and change in jobless claims. A slight deterioration in these figures is expected, which may weaken the pound.
- 12:00 – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September). A decline in the indicator is forecasted against the backdrop of business caution amid the energy crisis and weak industrial growth.
- 15:30 – United States: Retail Sales for August (total and excluding vehicles). Forecast: +0.3% month-on-month (previous value +0.5%), signalling a potential cooling in consumer activity.
These statistical reports are set to dictate the tone of trading in the financial markets. Particular attention will be paid to US data: the resilience of consumer spending (as evidenced by retail sales dynamics) will influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. It is worth noting that US inflation (CPI) for August increased slightly, yet remains around 3% year-on-year—this strengthens the likelihood of the Fed maintaining its pause on interest rate hikes. European indicators (business confidence in Germany, UK labour market) will provide insight into the state of the region's economy and may impact euro and pound exchange rates in the short term. Should actual figures deviate significantly from forecasts, heightened volatility in the currency markets may ensue.
US Company Reports (Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, etc.)
The US corporate calendar for 16 September includes several reports that are likely to attract investor attention:
- Ferguson plc: This leading distributor of construction materials and engineering equipment is set to report its 4th-quarter and full-year results for financial 2025 (results expected prior to market opening). Ferguson's results will provide insight into demand in the construction sector. Revenue growth is anticipated due to stable demand for building materials in North America, while investors will assess the company's profit dynamics amid rising cost inflation.
- Flux Power Holdings: This manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for industrial applications will publish its 4th-quarter results and financial year 2025 report after market close. The market anticipates significant revenue growth, although the company remains unprofitable. Investors will look for signals in the report indicating the company's proximity to operational profitability and will monitor management's comments regarding new orders.
- Evolution Petroleum: This independent oil and gas company based in Texas will report its results for the concluded financial year (report release is expected post-market closure). Increased oil prices are expected to have boosted the company's profit. Focus will be on production volumes, cash flow, and potential changes in dividend policy.
In addition to these three, several smaller companies will also publish their earnings today, but typically do not have a significant market impact. Overall, Wall Street remains attentive to macro factors and the forthcoming Federal Reserve decision, therefore even considerable deviations in individual issuers' reports are unlikely to affect the broader trend.
European Company Reports
In Europe, no significant corporate releases are scheduled for 16 September—none of the major issuers in the region will be reporting today. Only a few mid-cap companies will disclose their results, the impact of which on the market will be minimal. In the absence of crucial reports, European investors are paying more attention to the macroeconomic backdrop and external signals. Movements in key indices will be determined by morning data, primarily the ZEW index, and the dynamics of external markets. Weak statistics may increase pressure on cyclical stocks, while positive surprises could support the market, partly compensating for the information void on the corporate front.
Asian Company Reports
In the Asia-Pacific region, there are also no large company earnings releases scheduled for 16 September. The quarterly results season has either concluded in most Asian countries or key reports will be out closer to the end of the month. Therefore, Asian markets will largely focus on the external backdrop and internal economic news. In Japan, optimism remains: the Nikkei 225 index has reached record levels on expectations of government stimulus measures and a weak yen, which supports exporters. Conversely, sentiment is more cautious in China—recent data indicate a slowdown in the economy (retail sales growth in August was only +3.4% year-on-year), heightening expectations for new stimulus from authorities. Thus, Asian exchanges are balancing between optimism in Japan and restraint in China, without receiving significant impetus from corporate news today.
Russian Companies and the MOEX Index
The Russian stock market on 16 September will be influenced by external trends, as the earnings season for the largest domestic issuers has already concluded and no new publications are expected today. Following the previous session, the MOEX index corrected after recent weeks' gains—investors locked in profits in anticipation of further signals. The absence of fresh corporate drivers means that key factors for Moscow trading will be oil prices and sentiments in global exchanges. Export-oriented companies benefit from a weak rouble and favourable commodity prices, although rouble volatility adds uncertainty to forecasts. Overall, the Russian market will be influenced by external factors and the mood of global investors.
Commodity Markets: Oil and the API Report
Oil remains a crucial benchmark for the commodities sector and stock market. On the morning of 16 September, Brent crude oil prices hover around $67 per barrel, remaining in a narrow range. On one hand, OPEC+ continues to limit production, supporting prices; on the other, concerns regarding demand amid economic slowdowns in China and Europe are restraining price growth.
Later in the evening, the weekly API report on US oil inventories will be released, which has the potential to drive price movement. Should the API data indicate a significant reduction in commercial inventories, this will signal robust demand and push oil prices higher. Conversely, if inventories increase beyond expectations, prices may decline in light of market oversaturation concerns. Although official EIA data will be released only tomorrow, market participants traditionally react to API estimates in advance. Price fluctuations following the API report are important for oil and gas securities and overall risk appetite.
Conclusion: Points of Attention for Investors
- Macroeconomic Data: Releases on US retail sales and business activity indices in Europe today will largely determine market sentiment. Unexpected deviations in these figures could alter rate expectations and the overall market trend.
- Trade Negotiations: News regarding the progress of the US-China and US-India dialogues will influence risk appetite, particularly in the industrial and technology sectors.
- Corporate Reports: Results from Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, and other companies will shed light on the state of affairs in construction, renewable energy, and oil and gas sectors. The response of stocks to these reports will indicate investor sentiment in the relevant sectors.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: Price fluctuations following the API report are critical for oil and gas securities and overall risk appetite.
- Russian Market: For the Russian market, external factors will be decisive—from the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting to the dynamics of global exchanges—as there are no internal catalysts today.
