Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 22 December 2025. PBoC's Rate Decision, UK GDP, Hong Kong Inflation, and Company Reports from the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Monday marks the beginning of a shortened pre-holiday week in global markets. The news agenda is relatively moderate; investors' focus is on the monetary policy decision of the People's Bank of China and the final economic data from the UK. The Asian session reacts to the interest rate decision in China and fresh inflation figures from Hong Kong, while in Europe, attention is directed towards the revised UK GDP for the third quarter. In the US, macroeconomic statistics are limited to secondary indicators, and activity in the stock markets may remain subdued ahead of the release of more significant data on Tuesday. Investors from the CIS are advised to consider the low market liquidity ahead of the holidays and the potential for increased volatility due to unexpected news.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 01:15 – China: People's Bank interest rate decision (LPR).
- 08:30 – Hong Kong: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November).
- 10:00 – United Kingdom: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate); current account balance (Q3).
- 12:00 – Spain: Trade balance for October.
- 13:00 – Ireland, Finland: Producer Price Index (November).
- 16:30 – Canada: Raw Materials Price Index (November).
- 16:30 – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI, November).
- 17:00 – Mexico: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).
Asia: PBoC Rate Decision and Inflation
- PBoC (China): The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the lending rate at 3.00%. The pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing is associated with signs of stabilisation in the economy and moderate inflation in China. Any unexpected change in the rate or comments from the regulator may influence sentiment in Asian markets: a rate cut would support equities and commodities, while maintaining the current rate is already priced in.
- Hong Kong (CPI): Consumer inflation in Hong Kong for November will signal the state of demand in one of Asia's financial hubs. Forecasts suggest moderate price growth in the range of 2–3% y/y, reflecting stable household spending. A slowdown in the CPI may indicate a reduction in price pressures, providing monetary authorities with room to support the economy, while rising inflation would advocate caution in monetary policy.
Europe: Final UK GDP Data
- United Kingdom (Q3 GDP): The final estimate of UK GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 will be published. According to preliminary data, the UK economy grew by only +0.1% q/q, indicating stagnation amid post-pandemic slowdowns and the impact of Bank of England rate rises. Confirmation of weak growth or downward revision may heighten expectations for a looser policy from the regulator in 2026 and apply pressure on the pound. Conversely, if the revision indicates stronger growth, it would bolster sterling and market sentiment.
- Current Account Balance: Simultaneously, the UK's balance of payments for Q3 will be released. A persistent current account deficit underscores the vulnerability of the pound – a high deficit (relative to GDP) indicates the economy's dependency on foreign investments. Investors will evaluate whether the deficit has narrowed amid a revival in exports and tourism; a lower deficit would support GBP, while an expanding imbalance could weaken the currency's position.
- Other European Statistics: Spain's trade balance for October will reflect export dynamics amid a slowdown in the Eurozone. Additionally, the release of producer price indexes in Ireland and Finland will assess cost trends across different parts of Europe. Overall, these figures are unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets but will provide context for analysing inflationary processes in the EU.
USA: Indicators Amid Pre-Christmas Calm
- Chicago Fed Activity Index: The composite Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI) for November reflects the aggregate dynamics of the US economy across 85 statistical indicators. In the previous month, the NAI was around the neutral point, signalling medium-term growth rates. A substantially negative index could indicate an emerging slowdown in the US economy at year-end. However, markets are likely to react cautiously, as this indicator has limited influence, overshadowed by upcoming releases on Tuesday.
- US Market: American investors enter the session without major reports or first-tier data. Amid the pre-Christmas period, low volatility and reduced trading volumes are probable. Market participants will be guided by external signals – commodity price dynamics, news from China and Europe – while positioning for awaited releases the following day (such as US GDP statistics and durable goods orders on Tuesday). Individual corporate news and technical factors may stay in focus, but no significant drivers for unidirectional moves in indices are expected today.
Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO)
- AAR Corp (AIR) – an American aviation maintenance corporation. Investors expect commentary on demand for aviation development and maintenance: an increase in orders from airlines and the military sector could propel shares higher. Management's forecasts on margins in the context of rising costs and interest rates are also crucial.
- Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a Japanese clothing retail chain (retail, approximately $5 billion in capitalisation). The company will report for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Key metrics include same-store sales (LFL), revenue dynamics amid fluctuating consumer demand in Japan, and margins amid currency fluctuations and import costs. Results from Shimamura will signal the state of the consumer sector in Japan by year-end.
Corporate Earnings: After Market Close (AMC)
- There are no significant releases after the main session ends. The corporate calendar in the US for the day is virtually empty, as major companies in the S&P 500 indices completed their earnings season earlier. Investors do not expect substantial surprises from public companies on Monday evening, contributing to a relatively calm news backdrop.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- S&P 500 (USA): There are no quarterly reports from notable issuers in the S&P 500 on December 22. Many market leaders (FedEx, Nike, Oracle, etc.) reported last week, shifting participants' attention to macroeconomic factors. The dynamics of S&P 500 this Monday will likely be determined more by external conditions – the situation in China and Europe – and overall risk appetite before the holidays than by corporate news.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No financial reporting is scheduled among Eurozone blue chips on Monday. European markets are focused on data from the UK and the overall state of the EU economy. As the year draws to a close, investors are evaluating macroeconomic statistics (such as Spain's trade balance) and monetary signals, which shape movements within sector indices. The absence of significant corporate events means that external factors (EUR/GBP exchange rates, oil prices) could have a stronger influence on sentiments in the Euro Stoxx 50.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese index continues to witness the release of results from companies with non-standard fiscal years. The focus is on the releases from retail and industrial representatives. One notable report of the day is the performance of Shimamura stores, reflecting consumer activity in Japan. Overall, market activity in Japan is tapering towards year-end, as investors analyse previously released Q3 reports in preparation for the new season in January.
- MOEX (Russia): The corporate earnings season has virtually concluded on the Moscow Exchange; there are no major public companies releasing financial results on December 22. Some issuers are conducting dividend councils and closing shareholder registers (e.g., **Polyus**, **Ozon**, **Diasoft** – the last day to receive dividends), yet these events are already priced in and do not significantly impact index dynamics. The Russian market during these days is likely to follow external trends and commodity prices, with almost no internal earnings drivers.
Day's Summary: Key Points for Investors
- China’s Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China's LPR decision is the key factor of the morning. Its outcome will define the mood of the Asian session and may reflect on commodity markets. Investors should monitor the reaction of the yuan and Australian dollar as indicators of risk appetite in emerging markets following the PBoC's announcement.
- UK Indicators: Final GDP data from the UK and accompanying reports (current account balance, investments) will provide critical benchmarks regarding the economy's state before the weekend. Any deviations from expectations could impact the sterling exchange rate and market sentiment across Europe—particularly within the UK's banking and consumer sectors.
- Thin Market Ahead of Holidays: The pre-Christmas week is characterised by reduced liquidity as many participants take a pause. In such conditions, even single large orders or news can trigger disproportionately sharp price movements. Investors are advised to exercise caution: set limit orders, avoid excessive risks, and be prepared for short-term spikes in volatility in the thin market.
- Absence of Corporate Drivers: The sparse corporate earnings calendar implies that market fluctuations today will be predominantly influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Investors may use this pause to reassess their portfolios ahead of a new earnings season in January, focusing on fundamental company metrics without the pressure of fresh quarterly results.
- Preparation for Key Events of the Week: Although Monday is relatively calm, significant US data will be released on Tuesday (second estimates of GDP for Q3, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index), along with the RBA minutes in Asia. Investors should outline their strategy ahead of this flow of information to respond promptly to potential shifts in the macro backdrop. Given the shortened trading sessions on December 24 and the holiday on December 25 across many exchanges, risk management and position balancing at the week's start are particularly relevant.
