Economic Events on February 26, 2026 — ECB, Geneva Talks and Reports from Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo

Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Thursday, 26 February 2026: Geneva Negotiations, ECB President's Speech, US Unemployment Data, EIA Gas Inventories, and Reports from Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, CoreWeave

Thursday, 26 February 2026, finds itself at the intersection of three market drivers: geopolitics (Geneva as a platform for diplomatic contacts), monetary rhetoric (the speech of the ECB President), and a set of statistics from the US (initial jobless claims, the Kansas City Fed Business Conditions Index, and EIA weekly natural gas inventories). This combination heightens sensitivity to interest rates and risk premiums for global portfolios, while for investors from the CIS, it adds crucial context regarding currencies, commodities, and risk appetite in developed markets.

In the corporate realm, the focus shifts towards technological infrastructure and cybersecurity, digital platforms and media, as well as 'crypto-equity' through miners. Consequently, today it is essential to examine not only the headlines of the reports but also the quality of revenue, margins, cash flows, management forecasts, and order dynamics.

Market Context: What Will Drive Quotes Throughout the Day

• Rates and Inflation Expectations: The remarks from the ECB are likely to influence the yield curve in the Eurozone and affect the euro's movement, which can quickly transmit to risk appetite across global equities.
• US Labour Market Data: Initial jobless claims serve as one of the most immediate indicators of the cooling/resilience of the US economy.
• Energy and Commodities: EIA weekly natural gas inventories often amplify volatility in natural gas and related energy stocks, essential for positioning within the commodity cycle.
• Geopolitical Premiums: Any signals from Geneva can alter risk premiums in oil, currency baskets, and safe-haven assets.

Geopolitics: Geneva in the Spotlight

US—Iran: Negotiations between the US and Iran are underway in Geneva. For the markets, a key influencing channel is expectations regarding sanction regimes, supply availability, and overall trajectory of tensions in the Middle East. Even in the absence of immediate decisions, markets typically price in shifts in 'tail risks' via oil, the dollar, and safe assets.

Ukraine: The likelihood of discussions regarding Ukraine is also being considered in Geneva. For investors, this primarily affects risk premiums: the dynamics of European assets, the energy balance in the region, as well as sentiment in global indices including the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50, through the 'risk-on/risk-off' channel.

European Macroeconomics: ECB and Consumer Expectations

• Eurozone—Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (11:30 MSK). The market will seek confirmation of any 'pauses' or readiness for adjustments, along with evaluations of service inflation resilience and credit dynamics.
• Eurozone—Consumer Confidence (February) (13:00 MSK). This indicator is vital as an early signal for consumption and household spending tendencies.
• Eurozone—Consumer Inflation Expectations (February) (13:00 MSK). Shifts in expectations can influence ECB rhetoric and market pricing of interest rates.

For investors from the CIS, the European data block is particularly significant through the currency channel (euro versus dollar and baskets), as well as its impact on European stocks and credit spreads, setting the tone for global risk appetite.

US: Labour Market, Industrial Activity, and Natural Gas

• US—Initial Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK). A strong/weak print can alter expectations on interest rate trajectories and Treasury yield movements.
• US—EIA Natural Gas Inventories (18:30 MSK). At the forefront are seasonal dynamics of withdrawal/injection and deviations from expectations, which influence natural gas and the energy sector.
• US—KC Fed Manufacturing Index (February) (19:00 MSK). This serves as a useful regional snapshot of industry and supply chains.

The combination of these releases usually amplifies intra-day movements in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, especially if labour market data diverges from inflation and growth expectations.

Corporate Reports: Key Themes of the Day

Key interest today is centered around three narratives:

1. Digital Infrastructure and AI Computing: Demand for capacity, economics of data centers, capital expenditures, and long-term contracts.
2. Cybersecurity and Enterprise Software: Resilience of the subscription model, customer retention, growth in ARR/revenue, and margins.
3. Media and Consumer Brands: Advertising market, content monetisation, cost efficiency, and demand sensitivity to rates and household incomes.

Reports: US—Pre-Market

Companies reporting before the US market opens often set the tone for the entire day, particularly if they provide strong/weak forecasts.

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): Commercialisation of quantum solutions, contracting pace, cash flows, and burn rate.
• Vistra (VST): Energy generation, hedging, sensitivity to fuel prices and regulations.
• Celsius (CELH): Sales and distribution dynamics, margins, and competition in functional beverages.
• Eos Energy (EOSE): Delivery and manufacturing metrics, economics of energy storage projects.
• ACM Research (ACMR): Demand for semiconductor equipment, revenue geography, and order backlog.
• Baidu (BIDU): Advertising and cloud, monetisation of AI services, dynamics in China.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Streaming and content, advertising revenue, debt load, and synergies.
• Rackspace Technology (RXT): Transformation of cloud business, churn, service margin, and balance.
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY): Quality of credit portfolio, NIM, reserves, and investment banking.
• Compass Diversified (CODI): Results from portfolio assets, cash flows, and debt sustainability.

Reports: US—After Market Close

Post-market releases often trigger price gaps and carry volatility into the next session.

• CoreWeave (CRWV): AI infrastructure loading, revenue growth, CAPEX, and unit economics of capacity.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Launch frequency, backlog, margin, and contract forecasts.
• Marathon Digital (MARA): Mining cost, hash rate, and the impact of bitcoin prices on cash flow.
• Dell Technologies (DELL): Demand for servers/storage, corporate budgets, margins, and drivers within the AI segment.
• OPKO Health (OPK): Medical services/diagnostics, revenue, and margin resilience.
• Innodata (INOD): Data and AI contracts, revenue growth, and operational efficiency.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN): Monetisation of voice AI solutions, growth in customer base, and gross margin.
• Zscaler (ZS): Subscription dynamics, net retention, billing forecasts, and margin.
• Duolingo (DUOL): Subscriber growth, retention, ARPU, and scaling of marketing efforts.

Europe, Asia, and Russia: How to Integrate the Day into a Global Portfolio

While the primary flow of reports today originates from the US, it is important for investors to maintain a 'frame' on key regions:

• Euro Stoxx 50: Reaction to ECB rhetoric and consumer expectations; sensitivity of banks and cyclical companies to the interest rate curve.
• Nikkei 225: Attention to global demand for technology and the yen's exchange rate through the channel of US yields.
• MOEX: For investors from the CIS, currency and commodity drivers (oil, gas, risk premium) become relevant, potentially amplified by news from Geneva and US gas data.

The practical logic is straightforward: in a 'risk-off' scenario, defensive sectors and stronger balance sheets tend to win; in a 'risk-on' scenario, there is heightened demand for growth stories, including software, AI infrastructure, and consumer platforms.

What to Watch Out for as an Investor: Checklist for 26 February

1. 11:30 MSK — ECB: Any shift in Lagarde's emphasis can instantly alter the movement of the euro and European indices.
2. 13:00 MSK — Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations: An important signal regarding the resilience of domestic demand.
3. 16:30 MSK — US Jobless Claims: A test of the 'soft landing' scenario and interest rate expectations.
4. 18:30 MSK — EIA Natural Gas Inventories: A volatility point for natural gas and the energy sector.
5. Post-market Reports: Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, CoreWeave, and others — key releases for the technology, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure sectors.
6. Geopolitical Headlines from Geneva: Assess the impact on risk premiums and commodity assets, especially amid increasing uncertainty.

End of Day Summary: Thursday combines macroeconomic and corporate triggers that could swiftly adjust expectations regarding rates and risk appetite. It is wise for investors to maintain discipline in risk management: monitor market responses to the ECB's speech and US data, and focus on forecasts, revenue quality, and cash flows concerning the reports. For the CIS audience, an additional focus is on the influence of news on currencies and commodities, as these channels often amplify or mitigate movements in global indices throughout the session.