Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, 24 December 2025. Christmas Eve: Bank of Japan Protocol, US Jobless Claims, EIA Oil Report, Inflation Data in Russia.
On Wednesday, global markets greet Christmas Eve with mixed sentiment: some exchanges are closed, while trading sessions in the US and several other countries will conclude early. Nevertheless, significant economic events remain on the agenda. In Asia, investors are keenly awaiting the minutes of the Bank of Japan's latest meeting, which could provide insights into future monetary policy following a historic interest rate hike. In the US, the key release of the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims – a crucial labour market indicator made even more pertinent due to the pre-holiday period. In the commodities market, attention will be on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory report, traditionally setting a short-term tone for oil prices. In Russia, the end of the day will see the release of industrial production and consumer inflation data, aiding in assessing the state of the Russian economy as the year draws to a close.
Corporate reporting worldwide is currently experiencing a lull: there are no major releases in the US and Europe due to the holidays, while only sporadic reports are being published in Asia and on the Moscow Exchange. Investors must account for low liquidity and high volatility in the thin holiday market, carefully tracking even secondary data, as unexpected deviations can disproportionately impact sentiment.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 02:50 — Japan: Release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's latest meeting.
- 16:30 — US: Initial jobless claims (week).
- 18:30 — US: Weekly oil and petroleum products inventories from the EIA.
- 19:00 — Russia: Industrial production, November 2025.
- 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation (CPI).
Markets on Holiday: Christmas Closures
- Exchanges Closed: On 24 December, financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Argentina, and Brazil will be closed in observance of Christmas.
- Shortened Sessions: In the US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, trading sessions will conclude around midday (early market closure).
Bank of Japan Protocol: Insights Post Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised markets at its last meeting by tightening policy, raising the key interest rate to 0.75% – the highest level in three decades. The minutes being published today will provide investors with detailed insights into the discussions of the regulator. Key areas of interest include:
- Were there disagreements among BoJ board members regarding the rate hike and the assessment of inflation risks?
- Are any changes to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy for Japanese government bonds anticipated amidst rising yields and inflation exceeding the target level?
- How does the BoJ view the yen's trajectory and external factors: the minutes may include hints on how the regulator perceives the impact of a weak yen on the economy and prices.
Any signals regarding the BoJ's future actions will influence the yen's dynamics and sentiment in the Asian market. For now, the bank's tone remains cautious, indicating that the next moves will depend on incoming economic data from Japan.
US Labour Market: Jobless Claims in Focus
Weekly initial jobless claims in the US serve as a key indicator of the state of the labour market. The data for the past week emerges amid the holiday season when statistical noise typically increases. Investors need to monitor the trend:
- If the number of new claims remains around multi-year lows (~200–230 thousand), it will confirm the resilience of the labour market and support sentiment for the S&P 500 stock market.
- An unexpected rise beyond expectations could signal a cooling in hiring and the first signs of rising unemployment. However, one-off spikes during holiday weeks are often distorted by seasonal factors.
Since the US Federal Reserve bases its rate decisions on employment stability, even secondary statistics, such as jobless claims, can significantly impact market expectations regarding the regulator's policy – particularly if there is an unexpected deviation from predictions.
EIA Oil Inventory Report in the US
The US Department of Energy will release its weekly report on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories (EIA). This release, traditionally published on Wednesdays, can short-term influence prices for WTI and Brent crude. Key aspects of the report include:
- Change in Oil Inventories: A decline in inventories (drawdown) usually indicates strong demand or restrained supply, supporting price growth. Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories (build) may signal weak demand or excess supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Gasoline and Distillate Inventories: Fuel inventory dynamics are particularly important during the winter season. Reductions in gasoline or diesel inventories amid holiday transportation may amplify upward price pressures, while excess fuel stocks exert the opposite pressure.
With the year-end approaching, volatility in the oil market may increase due to low liquidity. Investors in commodity assets should be prepared for sharp price movements in the event of unexpected EIA data.
Industrial Production and Inflation in Russia
Russian macroeconomic indicators will be released in the evening hours, drawing significant attention from the local market (MOEX index) and the ruble currency market:
- Industrial Production (November): Production data will clarify the extent to which the economy is adapting to sanctions. Moderate year-on-year growth will signal the beginning of recovery in the sector, while a decline will indicate ongoing pressure on the production sector.
- Inflation Indicators (CPI): Consumer inflation in Russia has shown signs of slowing in recent months after a spike earlier in the year. The new figures will reveal whether the trend of declining price growth has been maintained. For the Bank of Russia, which recently lowered the key rate to 16%, continued disinflation will support the case for further easing of policy in 2026. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, it may limit the scope for rate cuts.
The reaction of the Russian stock market and the ruble exchange rate to these figures will depend on the degree of deviation from forecasts. Strong industrial performance and low inflation may bolster shares of local companies and strengthen the ruble, while weak figures could heighten investor concerns regarding the outlook for the Russian economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- US (S&P 500): No major company financial reporting is scheduled for 24 December in the American S&P 500 index. Investors in the US will focus on the macroeconomic statistics of the day, concluding trading early due to the holiday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): In Europe, the Christmas holidays mean no corporate releases from blue-chip companies within the Euro Stoxx 50. European markets are closed, with benchmarks influenced only by external factors – the dynamics of currencies and commodity prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market (Nikkei 225) continues normal operations amid the broader global lull. The reporting season for quarterly results is ongoing in Tokyo; for instance, the pharmacy chain Kusuri No Aoki Holdings will publish its financial results on 24 December. While these events are local, they reflect the state of consumer demand in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): On the Moscow Exchange, most companies have already disclosed financial results for the third quarter, so there are virtually no new corporate reports on 24 December. The main annual results of the largest Russian issuers will be published after the New Year holidays, according to the standard reporting schedule.
Day's Summary: What to Watch for Investors
- Low Market Liquidity: The pre-holiday day with shortened sessions and closed exchanges will lead to reduced trading volumes. In these circumstances, even minor news could provoke disproportionately strong price fluctuations. Investors need to exercise particular caution when placing orders and consider potential spikes in volatility.
- Bank of Japan Policy: The details of the BoJ protocol will show how ready the regulator is to continue tightening policy. If the document contains signals of further rate hikes or changes to the YCC, this will affect the yen's exchange rate and set the tone for trading in Asia.
- US Data: Labour market metrics in the US (jobless claims) will serve as a barometer of economic activity as the year closes. Significant deviations may prompt a reassessment of expectations regarding the Fed's rate policy and impact the S&P 500 index, although reactions may be tempered during the shortened session.
- Oil Market: The EIA inventory report will be released in a thin market: the reaction of oil prices may be amplified. Oil volatility can impact commodity currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) and energy sector stocks globally.
- Russian Macrostats: Industrial and inflation indicators in Russia will influence the MOEX index and the ruble exchange rate. Strong data may support expectations for further rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia and improve investor sentiment, while weak figures could heighten caution and apply downward pressure on the market.
