Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of 2-6 March 2026: Global PMIs, Eurozone Inflation, ADP, Federal Reserve Beige Book and US Nonfarm Payrolls. Key Reports from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225 and MOEX
Focus of the Week
The week of 2-6 March 2026 will serve as a "reality check" for global investors following a series of early macro signals this year. Markets will receive fresh data on business activity (PMI for manufacturing and services), a preliminary assessment of inflation in the Eurozone, a package of employment data from the US (ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls), as well as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. For currencies and interest rates, the comments from ECB management and the publication of the ECB minutes will be key, while weekly oil and gas inventory data in the US will matter for commodity assets.
Concurrently, the corporate earnings season continues, with a focus on reports from S&P 500 (retail, cybersecurity, semiconductors), Euro Stoxx 50 (industry, consumer sector, logistics), as well as significant issuers from Asia and Russia. More important than the actual numbers will be management’s forecasts regarding demand, margins, capital expenditures, and the interest rate effects on consumption and investment.
Monday, 2 March 2026 — Global Manufacturing PMIs and the Start of the Week for Risk Assets
The day sets the tone for the week through a synchronous block of manufacturing PMIs from key economies. For investors, this presents a "moment of truth" regarding the cycle: a recovery in manufacturing will support cyclical stocks and commodity markets, while weakness will heighten demand for defensive sectors and quality investments.
- Australia: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 01:00 MSK
- Japan: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 03:30 MSK
- India: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 08:00 MSK
- Russia: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 09:00 MSK
- Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 11:30 MSK
- Germany: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 11:55 MSK
- Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 12:00 MSK
- United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 12:30 MSK
- Brazil: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 16:00 MSK
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 17:00 MSK
- Canada: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 17:30 MSK
- United States: S&P Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 17:45 MSK
- United States: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 18:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- United States: MongoDB (after market close) — an indicator of corporate demand for cloud databases and IT budgets.
- United States: Norwegian Cruise Line — sensitivity to consumer demand and fuel prices in the leisure segment.
- United States: Plug Power — a barometer of sentiment in hydrogen and the green industrial agenda.
- Europe: Cellnex Telecom — dynamics of telecom infrastructure and debt burden amidst changing rates.
- Asia: Guotai Junan Securities — the state of brokerage and investment business in China.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: the divergence between PMI/ISM and "price components" in indices serves as a quick marker of inflationary pressure; Lagarde's rhetoric will be important for the EUR curve and the banking sector.
Tuesday, 3 March 2026 — Eurozone Preliminary Inflation, Merz and Trump Negotiations, and Retail Earnings Reports
On Tuesday, the markets will balance between Eurozone inflation and the corporate outlook regarding the American consumer. An additional factor will be the geopolitical and economic backdrop of negotiations in Washington, along with the release of the API oil report in the US.
- India: No trading (Holi)
- Negotiations between Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump in Washington
- Speech by the RBA Governor — 00:10 MSK
- Speech by the Bank of Japan Governor — 07:00 MSK
- Turkey: CPI (Feb) — 10:00 MSK
- Eurozone: CPI (Feb, preliminary) — 13:00 MSK
- Brazil: GDP (Q4 2025) — 15:00 MSK
- United States: Oil, API Stocks — 00:30 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- United States: Target, Best Buy, Macy’s — a "snapshot" of consumer demand, promotional pressures and inventory levels.
- United States: AutoZone — demand resilience for auto parts as a "quasi-defensive" story within consumer discretionary.
- United States: CrowdStrike, Box — the trajectory of IT spend and cyber risks in the corporate sector.
- Europe: Thales, Beiersdorf — defence-aerospace cycle and consumer brands in Europe.
- Asia/China: Alibaba — dynamics of e-commerce and cloud as proxy indicators for China's digital economy.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: in the Eurozone CPI, services and core inflation will be important; in retail reports, traffic, margin and price elasticity comments will be key, along with spring forecasts.
Wednesday, 4 March 2026 — ADP, ISM Services and Federal Reserve Beige Book Amidst Semiconductor Earnings Reports
Wednesday represents the central day of the week for the US: private ADP employment, services sector (ISM Services), the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," and EIA oil stocks will create a complex risk package for stocks, the dollar and yields. In Europe, investors will also receive PPI and unemployment data, while in Russia, inflation figures will be released.
- Australia: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 01:00 MSK
- Australia: GDP (Q4 2024) — 03:30 MSK
- China: Caixin PMI (Feb) — 04:45 MSK
- India: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 08:00 MSK
- Russia: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 09:00 MSK
- Switzerland: CPI (Feb) — 10:30 MSK
- Germany: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 11:55 MSK
- Eurozone: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 12:00 MSK
- United Kingdom: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 12:30 MSK
- Eurozone: PPI (Jan) — 13:00 MSK
- Eurozone: Unemployment (Jan) — 13:00 MSK
- Brazil: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 16:00 MSK
- United States: ADP Nonfarm Employment (Feb) — 16:15 MSK
- Canada: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 17:30 MSK
- United States: Final PMIs (Feb) — 17:45 MSK
- United States: ISM Services PMI (Feb) — 18:00 MSK
- United States: Oil, EIA Stocks — 18:30 MSK
- Russia: CPI — 19:00 MSK
- United States: Federal Reserve's Beige Book — 22:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- United States: Broadcom (after market close) — an indicator of demand for AI infrastructure (network solutions, ASIC) and corporate capex.
- United States: Veeva Systems — digitalisation of pharma and resilience of subscription revenue in software.
- Europe: Bayer, Adidas, Continental — the state of consumption and industrial cycles in Germany/Europe.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: the link between ADP + employment components in ISM Services will set expectations for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls; in the Beige Book, it is crucial to see if wage pressures are increasing and how companies are passing on rising costs to prices.
Thursday, 5 March 2026 — ECB Minutes, US Trade Balance and Earnings Reports from Costco/JD.com, Plus Significant Activity from Russian Issuers
Thursday intensifies the "rate" focus: the ECB minutes and Lagarde’s speech will be important for reassessing the interest rate path, while US external trade and industrial orders data will add details to the growth picture. For the commodity market, EIA natural gas stocks due will be significant.
- ECB: Minutes of the previous meeting — 15:30 MSK
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims — 16:30 MSK
- United States: Trade Balance (Jan) — 16:30 MSK
- United States: Factory Orders (Jan) — 18:00 MSK
- United States: Natural Gas, EIA Stocks — 18:30 MSK
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 20:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- United States: Costco — sensitivity to consumer baskets and food inflation, as well as trends in membership fees.
- United States: Kroger, Burlington Stores — demand quality in food retail and discount segments.
- Asia/China: JD.com — consumer cycle in China and competitive pressure in e-commerce.
- Europe: Deutsche Post (DHL) — global logistics and trade flows.
- Canada: Canadian Natural Resources — cash flows and capital discipline in extraction.
- Russia: Moscow Exchange — conference call on FY 2025 IFRS results.
- Russia: MTS — publication/discussion of Q4 and FY 2025 results.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: in the ECB minutes, critical phrasing about "the balance of inflation risks" and conditions for easing will be key; in retail reports, signals on consumer behaviour against the backdrop of interest rates will be important.
Friday, 6 March 2026 — US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Final Test of the Week for Interest Rates and the Dollar
Friday concentrates risk: Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment in the US will be the primary drivers of short-term expectations for the Federal Reserve and market volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies. In Europe, Eurozone GDP will be published, while Lagarde’s speech will complete the picture for EUR and European rates.
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 13:00 MSK
- Eurozone: GDP (Q4 2024) — 13:00 MSK
- United States: Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) — 16:30 MSK
- United States: Unemployment (Feb) — 16:30 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- Europe: Lufthansa — demand for air travel, fuel costs, and pricing discipline.
- Latin America: Embraer — order book and delivery dynamics in aviation.
- Canada/US: Algonquin Power & Utilities — sensitivity of utilities to interest rates and debt structure.
- Russia: Bank "Saint Petersburg" — publication of annual IFRS reporting (a benchmark for the second-tier banking segment).
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: beyond the headline NFP, the relationship between employment growth and average hourly wage dynamics will be crucial; strong data may support the dollar and increase yields, intensifying pressure on "long" growth stories.
Week Summary and Investor Recommendations
- Macro: compare the PMI trajectory (manufacturing/services) with inflation components — this will help ascertain whether a "growth without inflation" scenario or the risk of "sticky" inflation dominates.
- Rates and Currencies: the ECB minutes and Lagarde’s speeches set the tone for EUR assets; in the US, the NFP will determine how quickly the market prices in further Fed actions.
- Commodities: oil and gas react to inventories and demand expectations; signals for industrial energy consumption will be especially important against PMI data.
- Earnings: in the US, watch for margins and forecasts from retailers (Target, Costco) and tech leaders (Broadcom, CrowdStrike) — guidance often drives valuations.
- Regional Diversification: Europe (Bayer, Adidas, Deutsche Post) will provide insights into the stability of demand and logistics amid current rates; Russia (MOEX, MTS, Bank "Saint Petersburg") will signal domestic activity and financial flows.
Practically, the optimal strategy for the week is to maintain focus on data that alters interest rate expectations and on corporate forecasts. In such an environment, portfolios that balance quality (cash flow), moderate cyclicality, and controlled duration across equities and bonds tend to outperform.
