Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for 26th September 2025
The first discussion regarding the 19th EU sanctions package against Russia, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, the core PCE price index for the US in August, data on Canada's GDP, and consumer confidence index (US) are key events of the day, set against the backdrop of a lack of major corporate earnings reports.
The Friday session promises to be eventful for investors, focusing on geopolitics, monetary policy, and macroeconomic indicators. In Europe, EU countries are commencing discussions on a new sanctions package against Russia, while concurrently, Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech that could shed light on the ECB’s future direction. In the US, a pivotal inflation indicator—the PCE Price Index for August—will be released, along with final consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan. Additionally, Canada will unveil its latest GDP figures. The absence of significant corporate earnings reports on this day means that these events will primarily dictate market sentiment as the week comes to a close.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- (Throughout the day) – European Union: the first meeting of EU countries to coordinate the 19th sanctions package against Russia proposed by the European Commission.
- 12:30 MSK – ECB: speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
- 15:30 MSK – US: core PCE price index for August.
- 15:30 MSK – Canada: GDP data for July.
- 17:00 MSK – US: Michigan consumer confidence index (September final estimate) and household inflation expectations.
EU Sanctions: First Discussion of the New Package
EU countries are engaging in the first round of negotiations concerning the 19th sanctions package against Russia. Previously, the European Commission approved the draft of this package, which, according to media reports, includes an expansion of energy restrictions and new measures targeting Russian banks and companies. Specifically, sanctions against several major Russian oil and gas enterprises and their associated traders are under discussion, as well as restrictions on foreign refining plants and shipping companies that aid in circumventing the oil embargo. Additionally, the package may affect visa restrictions for Russians, with an aim to standardise the issuance of Schengen visas across all EU countries. Negotiations may be challenging: some southern European countries are cautious regarding visa restrictions due to their potential impact on the tourism sector, and certain states may demand a softening of specific measures. For the CIS markets, the outcomes of this meeting are significant; an escalation in sanctions could negatively affect the stocks of Russian companies (especially if major "blue chips" such as oil and gas giants or large banks are targeted) and the value of the rouble. European investors are also monitoring the unity of the EU in its sanctions policy—a decisive and unified approach will heighten geopolitical tensions, while disagreements or delays in implementing measures may temporarily alleviate market reactions.
Speech by ECB President Lagarde
At noon MSK, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech that is expected to attract significant attention from the financial community. Her comments could provide insight into the regulator's assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone and its plans regarding monetary policy. Following a series of rate hikes aimed at combatting inflation, the ECB finds itself at a crossroads: inflation in Europe is declining but remains above target, while the eurozone economy is slowing. Investors will be looking for hints in Lagarde’s speech regarding future actions—for instance, whether she will confirm a readiness to pause rate hikes or even discuss potential easing if inflation continues to subside. Any indication of a shift in rhetoric (a more “dovish” tone) could weaken the euro and support European stocks, while stern statements regarding the need for further inflation fighting could strengthen the euro but dampen interest in risk assets. Lagarde's words will particularly influence the banking sector and the bond market in Europe: signals indicating the end of the tightening cycle or potential support measures for the economy (such as new targeted refinancing programmes) could lead to increased bond prices and stock valuations of European banks. Overall, the balance in Lagarde’s speech will determine the short-term dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the trajectory of the EUR/USD exchange rate.
PCE Price Index in the US (August)
The core PCE price index for August is a key inflation indicator in the US that the Federal Reserve closely monitors. This index tracks changes in prices for goods and services consumed by households, excluding volatile components (such as food and energy), and is considered a priority for assessing fundamental inflationary pressures. Market expectations are moderately optimistic: it is anticipated that the core PCE will reflect a trend of easing inflation, approaching a growth rate of the target level of 2% per annum. If the report indicates further cooling in price pressures—for instance, a decrease in annual inflation rates or minimal monthly growth—this would bolster investor confidence that the Fed will maintain a dovish stance following its recent rate cut. In this scenario, a positive market reaction can be expected: yields on US Treasury bonds might decline, and the S&P 500 index could rise. However, if the PCE inflation unexpectedly exceeds forecasts or shows an acceleration in core price growth, the reaction will likely reverse: market participants may price in a more hawkish scenario from the Fed, leading to a surge in US Treasury yields, a strengthening of the dollar, and pressure on stocks—particularly in the tech sector, which is sensitive to interest rates.
Canada's GDP for July
A notable point on the economic agenda is the statistics from Canada: at 15:30 MSK, the GDP estimate for July will be announced. The monthly GDP figure for Canada will help gauge how the third quarter has begun for one of the G7's largest economies. Analysts forecast that Canada’s economy may have shown near-zero growth or slight changes in July, impacted by the effects of previous rate hikes by the Bank of Canada and the overall slowdown in the global economy. If the data show a modest increase, this would confirm the scenario of a soft landing—a slow but positive growth trend in the second half of the year. However, if a decline in GDP is recorded (for example, a negative change for the month), expectations will intensify that the Bank of Canada will pause or even consider easing its policy to support economic activity. The impact of Canada's GDP on global markets will be limited: the reaction will primarily manifest in the domestic market and the dynamics of the Canadian dollar (CAD). Nevertheless, investors should consider this publication within the context of the overall situation in the North American economy—any significant deviation from the forecast could briefly influence sentiments, particularly in the adjacent US market across sectors related to trade and commodities.
Consumer Confidence in the US and Inflation Expectations
At 17:00 MSK, the final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September will be released, accompanied by data on inflation expectations among American consumers. The preliminary estimate of this index indicated a decline in sentiment: the indicator fell to around 55 points (down from 58.2 in August), which is the lowest value in recent months. This reflects increased household concern, potentially due to rising gasoline prices at the end of summer, the general economic slowdown, or uncertainty regarding Fed policy. The final value of the index will either confirm or adjust this trend. A high level of consumer confidence supports forecasts for sustained consumer spending (a crucial driver of US GDP), while a decline in the index signals increasing caution, which may cool consumer activity in the long run. Furthermore, particular attention will be on the components of inflation expectations: according to the survey, long-term (5-year) inflation expectations among Americans have been holding around 3% in recent months, while short-term (one-year-ahead) expectations might have slightly increased due to rising energy prices. If the final data indicate that household inflation expectations remain relatively stable and do not exit the Fed’s comfort zone, this would serve as a positive signal—with expectations remaining as "anchors," the risk of an inflationary spiral appears low. However, any unexpected rise in expectations (for instance, an increase in the forecast inflation for the coming year) would alarm markets: discussions regarding how long the Fed might need to keep rates high would intensify. The report’s impact will be felt in the currency market (through the dollar exchange rate) and in the retail sector on the exchange: confident consumers bodes well for retailers, while pessimism and fear of inflation pose risk factors for companies focused on domestic demand.
Corporate Reports: A Pause in Publications
On 26th September, financial reporting from large public companies is not expected. There will be no significant releases of results scheduled in the US among S&P 500 companies, in Europe among Euro Stoxx 50 blue chips, in Asian markets (Nikkei 225), or in Russia on the Moscow Exchange. Accordingly, the corporate news background will be neutral, and the influence of micro-events will be minimal. Markets are given a kind of breather, focusing all attention on macroeconomic and political factors. Investors will conclude the week without new signals from the corporate sector, which, however, allows time to prepare for the imminent start of Q3 earnings season: in October, major companies from the US and Europe are set to release quarterly results that could provide a new impetus for the markets. For now, on 26th September, all market dynamics will be dictated by economic statistics and regulatory announcements.
Regional Markets: Europe, Asia, Russia
Europe: For European markets, the current day will be under the influence of two factors from the region: politics and economics. Decisions being discussed in Brussels (sanctions against Russia) and signals from Frankfurt (Lagarde's speech) will directly reflect on European investors’ behaviour. If a hard united line is demonstrated on sanctions, this may temporarily heighten geopolitical risks for certain European companies linked with Russia, though no significant effect on the broader Euro Stoxx 50 market is anticipated, as the eurozone business has largely adapted to prior rounds of sanctions. Much more sensitive for the market will be Lagarde's tone: a dovish rhetoric (indicating a pause or end to the rate-hiking cycle) could support pan-European indices and weaken bond yields, while any comments about maintaining a vigorous fight against inflation may trigger sell-offs in interest-sensitive equity sectors (real estate, automotive, high-dividend companies). The exchange rate of the euro (EUR) will also react; moderate comments from Lagarde could slightly weaken the single currency, which is nevertheless positive for exporters in the region, while a hawkish tone could strengthen the euro but might pressure the stocks of export-oriented corporations.
Asia: In the Asian markets on 26th September, no significant domestic events are anticipated, hence regional market dynamics will largely be determined by external news. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index, which had previously reached multi-year highs, continues to be responsive to global risk appetite. In the morning, investors in Tokyo and Shanghai will react to the outcomes of the previous Wall Street session, and by midday will respond to incoming information from Europe. The absence of major corporate disclosures in Asia means that sector movements will mainly be related to expectations for the global economy and exchange rates. For the Nikkei 225, the JPY exchange rate remains an additional factor: the recent depreciation of the yen has supported the stocks of Japanese exporters, and any changes in US bond yields (following the PCE data) or signals from the Fed/ECB may impact the Japanese market through currency channels. Overall, Asian investors will likely adopt a wait-and-see position, evaluating how European and American data will affect global growth prospects.
Russia: The Russian stock market (Moscow Exchange index) is primarily focused on domestic factors; however, on 26th September, external factors also play a role. The primary focus is on the outcome of the EU sanctions meeting. If signals emerge from Brussels concerning impending restrictions, this could create a negative atmosphere for Russian market stocks, particularly in the banking and energy sectors. However, no immediate effect may transpire on that day, considering that discussions are still at an initial stage and final decisions may not be reached instantly. Additionally, high oil prices continue to support Russian assets: Brent crude remains expensive, improving budgetary and corporate performance for Russia. The currency market in Russia (the rouble exchange rate) may respond more noticeably to sanctions news—any indicators of increased pressure on the Russian economy typically lead to a short-term weakening of the rouble due to increased demand for currency as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the overall external backdrop is mitigated by actions of global central banks: if the Fed and ECB shift towards a more accommodative policy amid declining inflation, capital inflows into emerging markets may offset some geopolitical risks. Thus, for the Russian investor, the balance of factors is mixed: geopolitical issues warrant caution, but macroeconomic conditions and commodity trends remain favourable for now.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- EU Sanctions and Russian Response: Keep an eye on news from Brussels—the details of the 19th sanctions package (especially regarding energy and banks) could influence Russian assets. Stringent measures will intensify pressure on the Moscow Exchange index and the rouble, while a lack of consensus or delays in decision-making may decrease geopolitical tension in the short term.
- Lagarde's Speech – Signals for Europe: Comments from the ECB President will impact the euro and European markets. A dovish tone (hinting at a pause or easing of policy) will support the Euro Stoxx 50 and bonds, whereas hawkish remarks (focusing on fighting inflation) may strengthen the euro but weaken stocks sensitive to interest rates. Investors need to analyse Lagarde's rhetoric and adjust positions in European assets accordingly.
- PCE Data in the US – Impact on Wall Street: The PCE inflation report will serve as a key driver for the American market. A lower-than-expected price growth will bolster hopes for further Fed rate cuts—this could trigger a rally in stocks (the S&P 500 index may rise) and decrease bond yields. However, a higher PCE could heighten inflation concerns and compel the market to price in a hawkish policy: sell-offs in growth stocks and a surge in US Treasury yields are likely.
- American Consumer Confidence: The final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations will provide insights into the strength of domestic demand in the US. A sharp improvement or decline in confidence will reflect on the stocks of retailers and cyclical companies: optimism fuels sales of durable goods and automobiles, while pessimism signals possible revenue slowdowns in these sectors. Additionally, an increase in public inflation expectations may enhance market volatility, raising interest rates on debts and pressure on the Fed.
- Absence of Reports – Focus on Macro: In the absence of new corporate disclosures, all market fluctuations will be driven by macroeconomic factors. Investors should be prepared for increased volatility during the release of key data (15:30 and 17:00 MSK) and announcements, employing risk management tools (stop-losses, limit orders, hedging). As the week draws to a close, it is essential for market participants to assess the cumulative impact of the received signals and, if necessary, rebalance their portfolios ahead of the weekend and the upcoming start of the quarterly earnings season.
