Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of 13 February 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI Oil Prices, the TTF and Henry Hub Gas Markets, Sanction Risks, Refineries and Oil Products, Electricity, Coal, and Renewable Energy. A Global Overview of the Energy Sector for Investors and Companies.
As Friday, 13 February 2026 approaches, the global energy sector enters the session with a conflicting set of signals: oil demand forecasts are becoming more cautious; however, geopolitics, sanctions, and logistics disruptions are amplifying volatility in oil, gas, and petroleum products. In Europe, electricity and carbon regulation are back in the spotlight, while coal in Asia faces spot risks due to export uncertainties. Below are key benchmarks and events of significance to investors, oil and gas companies, refineries, and trading in global markets.
- Oil: prices hover around psychological levels, but the supply-demand balance appears less strained on paper than in physical trading.
- Gas: Europe enters the injection season with an increased regulatory premium and sensitivity to LNG and weather; the US remains a separate curve with its own storage cycle.
- Electricity and Renewables: policies regarding the ETS and energy costs for industry are becoming market factors on par with raw materials.
- Refineries and Oil Products: margins are supported by a structural deficiency in capacity and local disruptions, but infrastructure risks are rising.
Market in Numbers: Key Prices for Oil, Gas, Electricity, and Coal
| Indicator | Price | Change for the Day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil | $69.21/barrel | -0.27% | Global benchmark for oil; risk premium depends on sanctions and logistics |
| WTI Oil | $64.55/barrel | -0.12% | US; sensitive to stock levels and refinery utilization |
| Gas Henry Hub (NYMEX, NGH26) | $3.246/MMBtu | +2.75% | US; affects electricity and demand from generation |
| Gas Dutch TTF (CME, TTFH6) | €32.885/MWh | +2.23% | Europe; influenced by LNG, weather, regulation, and inventory levels |
| Coal (benchmark Newcastle) | $115.00/ton | ≈+0.09% | Indicative level for the seaborne coal market; important for electricity and Asia |
Oil: Reevaluation of Demand Against 'Hard' Geopolitics
Market Balance and Demand Expectations
The focus is on the dissonance between macro forecasts and trading reality. Reevaluated demand forecasts and expectations of an oversupplied market create a baseline scenario for 'range-bound' oil prices over the coming weeks. However, in the physical supply chain, the risk premium remains due to sanctions, restrictions on 'grey' flows, as well as infrastructure threats along routes and in processing locations. For investors, this means that even moderate oil prices can be accompanied by high intraday volatility and widening spreads across grades.
Sanctions, Hormuz, and Risk Premium
The factor of sanctions has become a key driver of the ‘availability’ of barrels, rather than just their price. New restrictions on carriers and trading chains elevate the roles of insurance, compliance, and access to port infrastructure. In the upcoming sessions, the market will be particularly sensitive to signals of de-escalation or, conversely, news of expanded restrictions and incidents at choke points of global logistics.
Gas and LNG: European Risk Profile and American Curve
For global energy, gas remains a ‘transitional’ and simultaneously strategic commodity: it determines the margins for electricity and the competitiveness of industry in Europe, while in the US, it acts as a bridge between production and LNG exports. The European TTF is strengthening against the backdrop of sensitivity to weather and the status of LNG supplies, as well as regulatory restrictions on Russian volumes and their marketing.
- Europe: the market enters the pre-season for injections, where the price of gas reacts easily to any signals regarding the availability of LNG and potential contract restrictions.
- US: Henry Hub remains a prisoner of seasonal storage dynamics and short-term weather shocks; its influence is heightened by increasing demand from generation and export infrastructure.
Electricity and Carbon: ETS as a Market Factor
In 2026, electricity increasingly responds not only to fuel balances (gas/coal) but also to political-regulatory signals. Discussions on ETS adjustments and the industry's fight for cost reductions are bringing ‘politics’ back into the equation of forward curves. Practically, this means that investors in generation and networks will assess not only CAPEX and fuel prices but also the degree of regulatory predictability.
Global Linking of 'Gas → Electricity → Industry'
For global geo-targeting, two effects are meaningful. The first is the relative cost of electricity between regions (Europe vs US/Asia), affecting capital migration into energy-intensive sectors. The second is the resilience of networks and availability of capacity: extreme weather and military risks exacerbate price spikes and increase the value of flexibility (balancing capacities, storage, rapid repairs).
Petroleum Products and Refineries: Margins Rise, but 'Physics' Become More Fragile
The petroleum products segment receives support from structurally limited refining: the global base of refineries is growing more slowly than the need for reliable fuel supply. In this context, any halt at a major refinery—be it an accident, maintenance, or force majeure—quickly reflects on diesel and gasoline spreads and premiums to regional prices.
- US: the recovery of margins for independent refiners increases interest in sector stocks and ‘crack spread’ strategies.
- Eurasia: risks of attacks on infrastructure and refinery shutdowns are again becoming a pricing factor for petroleum products and logistics.
- Europe: changes in ownership and management regimes of refineries amplify the role of sanctions compliance and corporate governance.
Renewables and the Energy Transition: Adjusting Targets and Hidden Network Costs
Renewables remain a strategic direction, but the pace and structure of the transition increasingly depend on network constraints and policy. Adjustments to national plans in Europe highlight that ‘planned’ capacity installation trajectories are not guaranteed: the market is increasingly pricing in project delays, increased connection costs, and revisions to subsidies.
- For renewable energy investors, the key risk lies not only in capital costs but also in the speed of grid connection and cost-sharing rules.
- For industry, predictability of electricity costs and access to long-term PPAs/contracts is critical.
Coal: Asian Spot Risks and the Role of Fuel in the Energy Balance
Despite the rise in the share of renewables, coal remains a ‘backup’ fuel for electricity in many economies, particularly in Asia. Any export restrictions and disruptions in spot deliveries quickly translate into price impulses—and through that, influence gas, demand for petroleum products in generation (fuel oil/distillates), and overall energy inflation.
Key Takeaway for the Energy Sector
The coal market in 2026 is significant not so much as a ‘long-term bet’ but as a source of short deficits and shocks that ripple through to gas and electricity via fuel substitution.
Logistics, Sanctions, and Insurance: Where Supply Chains Might 'Break'
Oil trading and the oil and gas sector in 2026 are increasingly dependent on the capacity of choke points and the status of vessels. Under the pressure of sanctions, the role of the 'shadow fleet' grows, routes become more complex, and transactional costs escalate—from insurance to port procedures. In the short term, the market will react to any changes in transit status in Hormuz and the expansion of sanctions lists, including measures against the infrastructure of third countries and ports.
What Investors Should Monitor on Friday, 13.02.2026: Scenarios and Ideas for Charts
For the audience of investors and corporate planners in oil and gas and energy for tomorrow, not only are the ‘absolute prices’ critical but also the market regime: range/trend, liquidity, compliance risk, and the likelihood of force majeure events.
Checklist for the Session
- Oil: holding Brent around $70 and the dynamics of grade spreads (a signal for the availability of ‘clean’ barrels).
- Gas: whether TTF maintains above or below 30-35 EUR/MWh as an indicator of the European stress regime; reaction to LNG news.
- Electricity: any statements regarding ETS and mechanisms supporting industry; impact on utility stocks and power forward curves.
- Refineries and Oil Products: news on refiners’ maintenance/shutdowns and margin dynamics; risks of fuel logistics.
- Coal: signals regarding normalisation/amplification of export restrictions in Asia as a driver for spot prices.
Where Charts/Diagrams May be Relevant (images not to be inserted)
- Line Chart: Brent and WTI over 30 days + marking of key news (sanctions/incidents/reports).
- Spread Diagram: TTF vs Henry Hub (in conversion) as an indicator of regional gas imbalances.
- Bar Chart: indicative levels for coal/gas/ETS and their contribution to electricity costs by region.
- Map Diagram: choke points in logistics (Hormuz, key ports/hubs) with a qualitative assessment of sanction risk.
As of 13 February 2026, the baseline scenario for commodity markets appears to be 'moderately oversupplied' according to models, but 'premium' in terms of risk in actual supply chains. For energy sector participants, the optimal strategy remains a combination of hedging in oil and gas, compliance discipline, and increased attention to the infrastructural risks of refineries and logistics of petroleum products.
