Current News from the Energy Sector and Fuel Market as of 16 February 2026: Price Dynamics of Oil and Gas, LNG Market, Electricity Sector Situation, RES, Coal, and Oil Products. Analysis for Investors and Global Energy Market Participants.
Oil: US–Iran Negotiations and the April OPEC+ Shift
As of 16 February 2026, Brent is around $67.72 per barrel, and WTI is approximately $62.86. Over the past week, Brent has decreased by about 0.5%, while WTI has fallen by around 1% as the market reacted to signals regarding a potential US–Iran deal; however, it has been unable to entirely eliminate the premium due to the risk of negotiations falling through and supply factors. Additionally, in the US, there is no benchmark price for WTI today because of the holiday, which diminishes the informational value of daily movements in the American portion of the curve.
The medium-term focus is shifting towards OPEC+: sources indicate that several member countries may be inclined to return to increasing quotas starting from April; a crucial meeting involving eight participating countries is scheduled for 1 March. Looking ahead to "spring-summer," this raises the importance of spreads (front-month/long-term contracts) and differentials among oil grades, particularly during periods of thin liquidity. Fundamental assessments are also diverging: the International Energy Agency's February report anticipates more moderate demand growth and significant stock accumulation, which limits the potential for price increases without new supply disruptions.Sanctions and Logistics: The Cost of Maritime Services as a Market Factor
The EU has proposed a broader ban on services supporting the maritime export of Russian oil. Should this package be adopted, it could replace the price cap regime and increase the costs of insurance, freight, and compliance across the entire supply chain. This intensifies the role of the "shadow" fleet and elevates the premium for transparent logistics—particularly on routes from Russia to Asia and in the oil products segment, where traceability of raw materials has become a commercial condition for accessing the EU.
Regarding gas, the sanction framework is becoming "prolonged": the EU has approved a mandatory schedule for halting imports of Russian LNG by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027, with limited scope to defer deadlines due to issues with filling underground gas storage (UGS) facilities. This increases the value of long-term LNG contracts, regasification capacities, and portfolio flexibility for European buyers and suppliers.Gas: TTF for Europe, Henry Hub for the US, LNG for Asia
European gas (TTF) remains close to low €30/MWh levels (the latest available figures are around €32/MWh). The market is pre-assessing the challenges of the injection season in UGS amid a structural reduction in Russian volumes: news regarding the LNG fleet, routing, and regulation quickly turn into premiums at hubs and raise the cost of "flexibility."
In the US, after January's extremes, Henry Hub has returned to a range of around $3–3.5/MMBtu for near futures, yet the EIA forecast still suggests a higher average price in 2026 (around $4.3/MMBtu). In Asia, the LNG price benchmark (JKM) for spring contracts is around $10–11/MMBtu: the market awaits a wave of new capacity coming online in 2026 and a recovery in Chinese imports, although not necessarily to 2024 levels.
Electricity and Grids: EU Industry Pressures Regulators
In the EU, leaders from Central European countries are urging a reduction in electricity prices as a condition for industrial competitiveness, highlighting the role of expensive gas and the costs associated with carbon regulation under ETS. Concurrently, options for adjusting the system of free quotas and the trajectory of ETS2 are being discussed, which is crucial for electricity, metals, and chemical markets.
Network constraints are becoming a key "bottleneck" in the energy transition. France is advocating for a single energy market and an integrated European grid, while regulators in the UK and France have suspended approval of a new interconnector, citing a dispute over the allocation of costs and revenues. From an investment perspective, this means that the share of systematic costs (network, balancing, connection) on electricity bills is increasing and may dominate over the clean wholesale price.
Renewable Energy: Auctions Accelerate Deployment, but Supply Chains are Growing More Expensive
The British Contracts for Difference auction has confirmed the scale of demand for renewable energy: projects totalling 6.2 GW have been selected (of which 4.9 GW is solar generation), with the total capacity of the round estimated at about 14.7 GW. For the market, the strike prices (in 2024 prices) are also significant: solar generation and onshore wind remain competitive compared to new gas plants based on contract prices.
In Northern Europe, the focus remains on offshore wind and shared infrastructure. For investors in renewable energy, this shifts the focus from "clean generation" to networks, storage, and fleet services—i.e., segments where capacity shortages and delivery delays often manifest throughout the capital investment cycle.
Coal: Structural Shift in Trading Amidst Rising Domestic Production
Despite record global demand in 2025, seaborne coal imports in Asia have decreased: the market is increasingly defined by China and India, which are ramping up domestic production while simultaneously increasing the share of renewable energy in generation. China expects production to rise to 4.86 billion tonnes in 2026 (the slowest pace in a decade) and predicts a reduction in imports against a backdrop of supply risks from Indonesia. The price corridor for thermal coal in mid-February is held around $110–120/ton, supporting offers from exporters and maintaining coal's competitiveness against LNG in coastal areas of Asia.
Oil Products and Refineries: Incidents in Russia and Restructuring Diesel Flows
The oil products market (diesel/gasoil, gasoline, heavy fuel oil) remains vulnerable to refinery incidents and sanction-related logistics. At the Volgograd refinery, processing was halted following drone strikes: damage to key facilities raises the risk of short-term premiums in regional supply chains. In Europe, sanctions are altering operational models: TotalEnergies has taken full operational control of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, supplying raw materials and taking all output while retaining the Russian shareholder's stake in the capital.
Following the EU's ban on imports of fuel made from Russian oil, diesel flows are being redistributed: Indian supplies are shifting to West Africa, while Europe is increasing imports from the US and Middle Eastern countries. This makes oil products more sensitive to freight and compliance than to crude oil prices, and raises the value of "flexible" refineries with access to different grades of feedstock.
Forecast for Tuesday, 17 February 2026
- Oil: key risk - news from Geneva (US–Iran) and expectations around OPEC+ before 01.03.2026; baseline scenario - Brent in the high $60s while maintaining risk premium.
- Gas: for Europe - weather and speed of transition to injection season; for the US - temperature forecasts and EIA report expectations; for Asia - JKM/TTF spread and LNG fleet availability.
- Electricity: political signals regarding ETS and network investment in the EU, as well as regulations regarding interconnectors and tariffs in the UK.
Brief Analytical Block: Recommendations
- Investors: prefer businesses with diversified cash flows (integrated majors, gas/LNG portfolios, grids) because volatility in 2026 often arises from logistics and regulation.
- Traders: focus on spreads and premiums (oil/oil products/freight), rather than solely on "direction"; this is where arbitrage opportunities emerge amid sanctions.
- Refineries: pre-insure product premiums and ensure alternative logistics for feedstock and offloading—incidents are more likely to impact gasoline and diesel than crude oil.
- Renewables and Power Sector: assess projects considering grid charges, connection, and balancing—systematic costs are becoming subjects of political pressure in the EU.
