Current Energy Sector News as of 30 October 2025: Increased Sanctions Against Russia, OPEC+ Production Growth, Oil, Gas, and Coal Market Situations, Measures to Stabilise Fuel Prices in Russia.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of 30 October 2025 highlight a combination of diverging trends. The United States has intensified its sanctions on the Russian oil sector, introducing new restrictions against the largest oil companies in Russia, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. Simultaneously, leading global oil producers continue to increase supply: the OPEC+ alliance is gradually raising production quotas in an effort to regain lost market share. Against this backdrop, the global oil market remains under pressure from excess supply amid moderate demand – Brent prices are holding steady at around $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Furthermore, recent sanction news caused a brief spike in prices above $66, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks. The European gas market is showing relative resilience: underground gas storage in the EU is over 85% full, providing a buffer ahead of the winter season and keeping prices at a moderate level. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many regions are recording new generation records from renewable energy sources, though countries are not yet fully abandoning traditional resources for system reliability. In Russia, following a recent fuel crisis, authorities are continuing to implement measures to stabilise the domestic oil product market – thanks to export restrictions and subsidies, wholesale prices have been contained, and a gasoline shortage has been averted.
Oil Market: Excess Supply and Weak Demand Putting Pressure on Prices
Global oil prices remain subdued due to excess supply amid moderate demand. The Brent crude blend is trading around $65 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stands at around $61, which is approximately 10-15% lower than a year ago. Several factors are defining this situation:
- Increased Production by OPEC+. The alliance is systematically increasing its market supply: in October, quotas have been raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day, with a similar step expected in November. Since April, eight OPEC+ countries have collectively added about 2.7 million barrels per day to production, leading to a rise in global oil and petroleum product stocks.
- Slowing Demand Growth. Oil consumption is growing much more slowly than in previous years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts demand growth in 2025 to be only about +0.7 million barrels per day (compared to over 2 million barrels per day in 2023). This is influenced by global economic slowdown, the effect of past high prices (which have stimulated energy conservation), and structural shifts – for example, the accelerated spread of electric vehicles. A decline in industrial growth in China is also limiting the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Factors. Increased sanctions against Russia are restraining some of its exports – recent new restrictions from the US on Russian oil companies triggered a brief price spike above $66, underscoring the influence of political risks. Simultaneously, the lack of progress in the dialogue between the US and Russia maintains uncertainty. As a result, prices remain within a tight range without a clear impetus for either growth or decline.
In aggregate, supply exceeds demand, preventing prices from rising significantly. Some analysts believe that if current trends persist, by 2026 the average Brent price could fall to $50 per barrel.
Gas Market: Europe Nearly Fills Storage, Prices Stable
The focus of the gas market is on Europe, which is completing preparations for winter. By the end of October, the underground gas storages in the EU are almost 90% full, providing a solid reserve in case of colder weather. Exchange prices for gas are maintaining a moderate level: futures on the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (about $380 per 1,000 cubic metres), significantly lower than a year ago.
The high level of reserves was made possible by record liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, which compensated for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia and other traditional sources. The share of LNG now accounts for about half of the EU's gas supply, with the US being the main supplier. The European market appears balanced, although the increased dependence on LNG makes it vulnerable to external factors – for example, competition for gas from Asia. At present, the situation is favourable for European consumers: storage is full, and prices remain relatively low at the onset of winter.
International Politics: Sanction Confrontation Intensifies, Dialogue Stalls
The sanction confrontation between the West and Russia has escalated by the end of October. The US has introduced new restrictions against the Russian oil sector, effectively banning cooperation with two of Russia's largest oil companies. Moscow condemned this move, expressing its readiness to redirect exports to friendly countries and implement retaliatory measures to protect its interests.
Meanwhile, political dialogue remains stalled. After the summer meeting between Russian and US leaders in Alaska, there has been no progress: Washington is unwilling to ease sanctions without resolution of the conflict, while Moscow refuses to shift its position under pressure. Even radical new measures are being discussed – highlighting the rigidity of the West's approach.
Consequently, the sanction pressure on the energy sector is increasing in the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, preserving high geopolitical risks for the FEC market.
Asia: India and China Increase Imports While Supporting Domestic Production
Major Asian consumers – India and China – continue actively purchasing energy resources while simultaneously striving to develop domestic production. New Delhi has made it clear that it cannot sharply reduce imports of Russian oil and gas without jeopardising energy security. As a result, Moscow is offering Indian buyers favourable conditions (discounts on Urals oil compared to Brent), and Indian imports of oil and petroleum products from Russia remain high. Concurrently, India is investing in exploration and production within its territory to eventually reduce dependence on external supplies.
China is also taking advantage of the situation, increasing purchases of cheap Russian raw materials – Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and is benefiting from price discounts for oil and gas from Russia. Oil and gas imports into China in 2025 are remaining close to record levels, although growth has slowed due to the high base last year. National oil and gas production in China is gradually increasing (a few percentage points per year), which partially compensates for demand but does not negate its significant reliance on imports. Estimates suggest that China still covers around 70% of its oil needs and approximately 40% of its gas needs through imports. Thus, India and China continue to play a crucial role in the global raw materials market, remaining the largest consumers and importers of energy resources while making efforts to develop their own resource base.
Coal: Demand in Asia Remains High, Prices Stable
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy sources, global coal consumption remains high, particularly in Asia. China and India continue to burn enormous volumes of coal for power generation, sustaining demand. Major exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) have increased production, helping to keep coal market prices stable within a moderate range.
Russian Oil Product Market: Domestic Measures Stabilise Prices
In the internal fuel market of Russia, steps continue to normalise prices after a recent surge. The main measure has been a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel – extended until the end of September, which has increased the supply of fuel within the country. In October, restrictions began to be partially lifted for large refineries, provided the domestic market is sufficiently supplied (small producers still have export bans). Concurrently, the government has intensified control over fuel distribution following unscheduled stops at several refineries (due to accidents and drone attacks in the summer). Producers are mandated to prioritise domestic needs and prevent exchange resales, while relevant authorities are exploring the transition to direct contracts between refineries and petrol station networks, bypassing speculators. Monetary compensation measures – the “damping” mechanism and subsidies – remain in place to ensure that oil companies retain more gasoline and diesel on the domestic market despite the lost profits from exports.
This complex of measures is already delivering results. Thanks to the export ban, hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fuel are remaining in the country each month, alleviating the sharpness of the deficit. Wholesale prices have stabilised after record peaks, and retail prices at petrol stations have only increased by approximately 5% since the beginning of the year (within inflation). The fuel crisis has been contained: refuelling stations are supplied with fuel, and authorities state their readiness to limit exports again or implement new mechanisms if necessary to avoid a repeat of price spikes.
