Current Energy Sector News for Thursday, 2 October 2025: Global Oil Prices, Gas Pivot to the East, Coal Exports, Refinery Modernisation, Renewable Energy, and Domestic Fuel Market. Trend Analysis for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Global Oil Prices
Brent crude oil prices continue to decline amid expectations of a new production increase under the OPEC+ deal and concerns surrounding economic growth slowdown in the USA and Asia. As of 1 October, Brent futures dropped to approximately $65 per barrel, marking the lowest level since June. Investors are factoring in forecasts that OPEC+ may boost production by 500,000 barrels per day in November, while crude oil stocks in the USA are rising faster than anticipated.
Russian Fuel Market
The Russian government has extended the existing ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025, applying it to all market participants, including direct producers. Additionally, a complete ban on the export of diesel fuel and marine fuel has been implemented (except for direct supplies from refineries). These measures are in response to rising exchange prices for gasoline and concerns of fuel shortages. The Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia (FAS) is conducting monitoring at fuel stations: regional offices are collecting data from networks on pricing and fuel reserves to identify potential violations.
- Export Bans: The decision to impose a full ban on the export of gasoline and diesel aims to stabilise domestic prices and ensure sufficient fuel supplies for the regions.
- FAS Monitoring: The service regularly requests data on prices and fuel stocks from fuel stations to assess the presence of cartel agreements or unjustified price increases.
- Price Dynamics: In September, prices for Regular-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange surged by 6-7%, reaching approximately 73-74 thousand RUB per tonne. The average price for AI-92 (around 72.3 thousand RUB/tonne) is nearing the threshold values of the dampening mechanism, potentially leading to compensatory payments to oil producers.
- Regional Supplies: The head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, promised to resolve the local gasoline shortage in the republic promptly – providing AI-95 within 2 days and AI-92 within two weeks. There are no anticipated issues with diesel supplies.
Refinery Modernisation and Fuel Production
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that in 2025–2026, the country will commission upgraded capacities at refineries with state support. As part of the modernisation programme, approximately 30 new deep oil processing units will be reconstructed and launched, providing additional volumes of gasoline and diesel for the domestic market.
- In 2025–2026, modernised refineries will come online, allowing for increased production of petroleum products to ensure stable domestic supply.
- Agreements have been concluded with the Ministry of Energy for the modernisation of refineries – new secondary oil processing and bitumen coking units (more than 30 units) will be launched.
- Expanding refinery production capacities is expected to compensate for decreased production and logistical risks, ensuring market balance for motor fuels.
Gas and LNG Exports: China and India
Russia continues to pivot towards Asian gas and LNG markets. Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev stated that Moscow intends to significantly increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to China, primarily through the Arctic LNG-2 and Sakhalin-2 projects. Similar plans are in place for increasing pipeline supplies: in September, Gazprom agreed with CNPC to raise deliveries through the existing Power of Siberia gas pipeline to 44 billion cubic meters per year (up from the current 38 billion) and signed a memorandum for the construction of Power of Siberia-2 with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters through Mongolia. Simultaneously, India, the largest buyer of Russian oil, maintains approximately a third of its crude import share, despite American tariffs (in September, Moscow even became India's largest oil supplier).
- LNG supplies: Cooperation with China will be expanded – particularly regarding Arctic LNG-2 and Sakhalin-2. LNG cargoes to Asia are expected to increase.
- Power of Siberia: The construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline through Mongolia (50 billion cubic meters per year) has already been agreed upon at the memorandum level.
- Existing Contracts: The capacity of Power of Siberia will be increased to 44 billion cubic meters per year; the pipeline from Sakhalin (North Asia to Jian) will raise supplies to 12 billion cubic meters (from 10 billion).
- Indian Market: Even after the introduction of a 25% US tariff on Russian crude in September, India continued its purchases, with Russian oil accounting for about a third of its imports.
Coal: Export Dynamics
Coal producers in Kuzbass are also increasing shipments abroad. According to the Central Coal Information and Analytical Centre, energy coal exports (5500–6000 kcal) from Russia rose by 2% year-on-year in January–August 2025 to approximately 135 million tonnes. Turkey (+43% year-on-year to 12.7 million tonnes) and South Korea (+36% to 13.8 million tonnes) lead the way, as Russian coal competitively prices against reduced supplies from Australia. Exports to China also increased (~+5% to ~67 million tonnes) amidst China’s struggle with overproduction. Conversely, shipments to India fell by 29% (to 13.4 million tonnes), and to Japan - nearly halved. Prices for energy coal at the Russian coast remain competitive – around $70–72 per tonne FOB.
- Shipments to Turkey and South Korea showed double-digit growth, while China saw moderate increases. Russia maintains strong positioning as a leading supplier to Asia.
- On spot markets, 5500 kcal energy coal is traded at about $72/ton FOB Far East, still below major competitors.
- Overall global demand for coal in the Asia-Pacific region supports Russian exports, although the domestic coal share in electricity generation is decreasing.
Renewable Energy and Investments
The global energy sector is witnessing rapid growth in “green” investments. According to the IEA, global energy investments could reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with more than $2.2 trillion directed towards clean technologies (including renewable energy sources, nuclear power, and storage). The largest beneficiary will be solar power generation, with financing expected to rise to approximately $450 billion per year. In Russia, however, renewable sources remain a niche segment: by April 2025, the installed capacity of renewables reached only approximately 6.6 GW, accounting for around 2.6% of total electricity production. In the coming years, plans are in place to stimulate the construction of wind farms and solar photovoltaic systems predominantly in the country’s southern and coastal regions.
- Clean Energy: Global spending on renewables and batteries is set to soon double investments in oil and gas.
- Solar Energy: An explosive growth in investments is expected (up to ~$450 billion in 2025), creating competition for investments with the fossil sector.
- Russian Renewables: The share in electricity generation remains low (~2.6%), but the government is developing new tariff mechanisms and incentives for wind and solar projects.
- Hydro and Nuclear Energy in Russia remain the primary sources of “carbon-free” generation, although the share of small hydroelectric plants and biomass is gradually increasing.
Ultimately, the key trends in the energy sector as of 2 October 2025 are as follows: the global raw materials market remains volatile (oil prices decline amid concerns over overproduction), while Russia strengthens its positions in Eastern markets (gas and LNG to China/India). On the domestic front, authorities are focused on ensuring stability through export restrictions and refinery modernisation to smooth price fluctuations and eliminate fuel shortages. Investors and market participants should consider these trends when planning operations in the fields of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and petroleum products.
