News from the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector for Sunday, 25 January 2026. Global Review of the Fuel and Energy Market: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Key Trends for Investors and Market Participants.
By the end of January 2026, the situation in the global oil and gas markets appears ambiguous. Oil prices have recently found support against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tension and high winter demand: Brent prices are hovering around the mid-$60 mark per barrel after several weeks of growth. At the same time, concerns over a potential supply glut throughout the year remain, as production levels stay high and global inventories may begin to rise. The European gas sector is under pressure due to an unusually cold winter: gas storage facilities are being depleted at record rates, which has already led to price increases from minimal levels—though prices remain significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022. Western sanctions on the Russian energy sector have tightened further at the start of the year, forcing Moscow to redirect oil exports to China, while previous major buyers—India and Turkey—have cut back on their purchases.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to progress rapidly. By the end of 2025, renewable energy sources accounted for nearly half of the electricity generation in the European Union—a significant milestone in the energy transition—although the stability of energy systems still largely depends on traditional resources, especially during peak demand periods. Global coal consumption, sustained by Asia, reached a record level in 2025, underscoring the ongoing reliance on fossil resources despite accelerated growth in the renewable energy sector. In Russia, domestic fuel prices rose significantly at the beginning of 2026 due to tax changes and limited supply, prompting authorities to take measures to stabilise the domestic oil products market and curb inflation. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Prices Amid Supply Glut Concerns
Global oil prices have recently stabilised at relatively elevated levels due to several factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $65–66 per barrel, while American WTI is roughly $61, having recovered from the five-month lows reached at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, current prices remain significantly below last year's peaks, and the market is adopting a cautious stance amid signals that supply may exceed demand in the coming months.
- Geopolitical tensions. Risks of conflict in the Middle East have escalated anew: US President Donald Trump has resumed threats of military action against Iran, accompanied by a demonstrative increase in naval presence in the region. These developments are raising the geopolitical premium on oil prices, considering Iran's key role as one of OPEC's leading producers.
- Seasonal demand and weather. Cold weather in Europe and a powerful winter storm in North America are driving up fuel consumption for heating. The demand for oil products (primarily diesel fuel used for heating) is increasing, providing support to oil prices despite a general slowdown in the global economy.
- The dollar and financial markets. The weakening of the US dollar to its lowest levels in several months has made commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating additional demand from investors. At the same time, hedge funds have increased their net long positions in oil to a five-month high, indicating a return of speculative optimism to the market.
- OPEC+ actions. The oil alliance is demonstrating a cautious approach to increasing production. According to the decision from the OPEC+ meeting in November, participants have suspended quota increases for January–March 2026, aiming to prevent a supply glut against a backdrop of traditionally weak demand in the first quarter. Maintaining restrictions from OPEC+ supports the market and prevents prices from falling.
Collectively, the current influence of these factors provides relative stability to oil prices and partially offsets the recent market decline. However, analysts warn of a potential emergence of oversupply later in 2026: according to the International Energy Agency's forecast, global oil inventories could increase by several million barrels per day if demand does not accelerate. This factor limits the potential for further price growth—the market is pricing cautious expectations for the coming months.
Gas Market: Europe Depletes Stocks at Record Rates Amid Winter Cold
The focus of the gas market is on Europe, which is facing a sharp rise in gas consumption due to severe cold. In January, European countries have had to withdraw gas from underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) at the highest rates in five years. According to industry monitoring, the average daily withdrawal volume in the first half of the month reached around 730 million cubic metres, leading to a rapid decline in inventories. By 20 January, total storage occupancy in the EU fell below 50% (compared to approximately 62% the previous year), significantly trailing behind the usual seasonal level (around 67% for this date).
The rapid depletion of stocks has driven up gas prices in the region. As recently as late December, gas futures prices at the TTF hub remained in a narrow range of €28–29 per MWh; however, by mid-January, prices surged to €36–37 amid forecasts of further cold and concerns over inventory levels. Subsequently, the market corrected to €34–35/MWh, but volatility has significantly increased compared to the calm summer of last year. Market participants are closely monitoring weather forecasts: the anticipated cold wave at the end of the month may require additional imports of LNG and further price increases to compete for supplies with Asian buyers.
Despite the extreme seasonal demand, Europe is currently avoiding acute shortages, thanks to diversified supply sources. Norwegian pipeline gas is flowing in stable volumes, and LNG imports remain high—EU countries received about 81 billion cubic metres of LNG in 2025, over half of which (57%) came from the United States. At the same time, Europe’s reliance on American LNG continues to grow, raising concerns among some experts, as excessive dependence on a single supplier contradicts the goals of the REPowerEU programme aimed at strengthening energy security through the diversification of sources. The EU's complete abandonment of Russian gas imports since 2026 further amplifies this trend: with the departure of Russian pipeline gas, the European market is becoming increasingly dependent on global LNG supplies and weather factors. Experts also warn that significant depletion of stocks during the winter will complicate the task of refilling UGSF for the next heating season and may force Europe to buy gas in the summer at higher prices.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure Intensifies, Energy Flows Restructure
At the end of 2025, the West imposed new stringent restrictions on the Russian oil and gas sector, further complicating energy resource trade from the RF. The US and the EU expanded sanctions lists in December, for the first time directly targeting the largest Russian oil companies (including Rosneft and Lukoil) and maritime transport. Additionally, the European Union closed the remaining loopholes in the fuel embargo by prohibiting the import of oil products produced from Russian crude oil in third countries—a measure that severely impacted resale schemes via India and Turkey. Finally, from 1 January 2026, a legally binding complete ban on the purchase of Russian natural gas came into force in the EU, marking the de facto end of the lengthy process of reducing Europe's energy dependence on the RF.
These steps have forced Moscow to more actively redirect energy resource exports to friendly markets. In January 2026, China sharply increased its purchases of Russian oil, compensating for falling sales to India and Turkey. According to traders' estimates, maritime supplies of Russian oil to China reached nearly 1.5 million barrels per day—up from around 1.1 million in December— including record volumes of Urals crude for Chinese refineries (over 400,000 barrels per day). Meanwhile, the volume of Russian oil supplies to India declined to less than 1 million barrels per day (down from about 1.3 million on average in 2025), and Turkey reduced Urals imports to about 250,000 barrels per day (versus 275,000 average annual and peak 400,000 in the summer of 2025). The surplus of unsold Russian barrels has intensified price differentiation: the Urals discount in Asia has widened to $10–12 relative to Brent, reflecting limited rerouting capabilities.
The decline in Indian and Turkish purchases of Russian oil is largely associated with sanction restrictions on oil products trade. As the EU banned the import of diesel fuel and other products derived from Russian crude, Indian and Turkish refiners lost part of their sales markets in Europe and were forced to reduce the share of Russian crude in their throughput. India has publicly stated its readiness to completely replace Russian oil with alternative sources in the event of tightened sanctions: Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri noted that the country has a diversification plan for imports in case of US secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian crude. Thus, sanction pressure is gradually reformulating global energy flows: Russia's share in European markets is striving toward zero, while Moscow's dependence on exports to China and other Asian countries is steadily increasing.
Meanwhile, prospects for easing geopolitical tensions remain bleak. The war in Ukraine continues without signs of imminent resolution, and diplomatic contacts between Russia and the West have been reduced to a minimum. Consequently, energy sanctions are unlikely to be relaxed in the foreseeable future, and companies must adapt to new long-term trading routes and conditions.
Asia: Demand Increases, Countries Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
In China, demand for energy resources remains high, although its growth rate has slowed along with the cooling economy. The country remains the world’s largest importer of oil and natural gas while also boosting domestic production and signing long-term deals to diversify supplies. In 2025, Chinese companies signed record contracts for LNG imports (including with Qatar for decades ahead) and increased pipeline gas purchases from Central Asia and Russia. At the same time, Beijing is making significant investments in renewable energy and electric transportation, aiming to gradually reduce the economy's dependence on fossil fuels.
India is rapidly emerging as a leading player in energy consumption growth. In December 2025, domestic consumption of oil products in the country reached a record 21.75 million tonnes (approximately 5 million barrels per day), increasing by 5% year-on-year. According to experts, India accounted for up to a quarter of the total growth in global oil demand in 2025. The Indian government is prioritising energy security: strategic reserves are being expanded, production is being stimulated in new fields, and state-owned refineries set a historical high for oil products exports last year. Simultaneously, the country is increasing power generation capacities based on renewable energy, but still actively relies on coal-fired power plants to ensure energy balance. Thus, the Asian giants China and India continue to increase their total energy consumption, balancing between rising imports and developing domestic production, making them key players in the global fuel and energy market.
Energy Transition: Record Indicators for Renewable Energy and Balancing Traditional Generation
The transition to low-carbon energy worldwide is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries reported record figures in clean energy: for instance, the share of renewable sources exceeded 48% in the EU's electricity generation, and total global capacities for solar and wind power plants grew by more than 15%. Investments in renewable energy and related technologies (grids, storage systems) also reached an all-time high, outpacing capital expenditures in oil and gas extraction projects. The largest economies (China, USA, EU) have announced extensive programmes to stimulate green energy and decarbonisation aimed at achieving carbon neutrality within the next 20–30 years.
However, the rapid growth of renewable energy comes with challenges for energy systems. The variable nature of generation from solar and wind plants necessitates backup capacities and energy storage infrastructure. During adverse weather periods (calm, drought), countries are compelled to rely on traditional power plants—gas, coal, or nuclear—to ensure stable electricity supply. Many states are delaying the shutdown of coal-fired power plants and investing in gas "peaking" capacities for load balancing until new energy storage technologies (such as industrial batteries, hydrogen solutions) are widely implemented. Thus, the global energy balance is undergoing transformation: the share of renewable energy is steadily increasing, but fossil fuels still play a key role in ensuring reliable energy supply.
Coal: Global Demand Reaches Historical Peak Ahead of Expected Decline
Despite efforts to decarbonise, the global coal market demonstrated record consumption levels in 2025. According to IEA data, world coal consumption rose by approximately 0.5% to around 8.8 billion tonnes—a new historical maximum, primarily due to increased coal burning in Asia's power generation. China and India, facing rising electricity needs, continue to commission modern coal-fired power plants, compensating for declining coal demand in Europe and North America. High gas prices in recent years have also prompted some Asian consumers to temporarily switch to cheaper coal.
However, most analysts agree that the current peak in coal demand may be the last. Forecasts from IEA and other organisations indicate a stabilisation and gradual decline in global coal consumption by the end of the decade, as numerous renewable energy and nuclear generation facilities come online. Already in 2026, a symbolic reduction in coal demand is expected, primarily due to substitution in China's power generation, where the government has set a goal to reduce coal use in its energy balance. International coal trade is also likely to shrink: key importers are seeking to reduce dependence on coal generation, which may weaken the export potential of suppliers such as Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and Russia. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal continues to play a significant role, providing baseload supply in many developing countries.
Russian Oil Products Market: Fuel Price Increases and Stabilisation Measures
The domestic fuel market in Russia has been experiencing price pressure since the beginning of 2026. In the first weeks of January, retail prices for petrol and diesel continued to rise: according to official data, fuel prices rose by approximately 1.2–1.3% in just two weeks, significantly outpacing overall inflation. Key factors include an increased tax burden (as of 1 January, VAT has been raised from 20% to 22%, and excise duties on oil products have increased by around 5%) and a relatively limited supply on the domestic market. In 2025, the price of motor fuel in the RF rose by 8–11%, exceeding the growth rate of consumer prices, and this trend has carried over into the new year, causing concern among authorities.
The RF government, together with oil companies, is taking steps to normalise the situation in the fuel market. The damping mechanism, which partially compensates producers for the difference between export and domestic prices, remains in place, although declining export revenues are limiting the possibilities for subsidisation. Monitoring of exchange prices for petrol and diesel has been intensified, and relevant agencies are demanding that producers increase supplies to the domestic market. Earlier, in the autumn of 2025, authorities resorted to temporary restrictions on oil products exports to lower prices domestically; should the trend of rising prices continue, similar measures may not be ruled out in 2026. Long-term solutions are also being considered, such as adjusting tax policies or creating minimum fuel reserves to enhance the market’s resilience to shocks. Stabilising prices at filling stations is a priority, given its impact on the socio-economic situation and inflation.
