Current News in the Fuel and Energy Complex as of 18 October 2025: Analysis of Global Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, and Renewable Energy Markets. Sanctions, Export Reorientation, Domestic Fuel Market in Russia and Results of REN-2025 Forum.
By mid-October 2025, a relatively stable but contradictory situation is observed in the global fuel and energy complex. Oil prices remain near multi-month lows due to an anticipated oversupply by the end of the year; however, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. The sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West is intensifying: this week, the UK imposed new restrictions against major Russian oil and gas companies, while the US is urging allies to completely abandon imports of Russian energy resources. An unexpected development was India's announcement of its willingness to gradually halt imports of Russian oil – if realised, global oil flows will undergo significant restructuring. Meanwhile, Europe is entering winter with unprecedented natural gas reserves, ensuring price stability in fuel markets unless extreme cold weather occurs. The global energy transition is accelerating: record investments are being made in renewable energy, although traditional resources still underpin the energy system. In Russia, emergency measures to stabilise the domestic fuel market are yielding results – gasoline shortages are decreasing, wholesale prices are retreating from peaks, although the situation in remote regions still requires attention. A key focus of industry discussions has been the recently concluded international forum “Russian Energy Week 2025” (15–17 October), where key topics included ensuring the domestic market is supplied with energy resources and redirecting exports under new sanction conditions. Below is a detailed overview of the main news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of 18 October 2025.
Oil Market: Sanction Pressure, Indian Factor, and Supply Surplus
Global oil prices continue to remain at lower levels. The benchmark Brent blend is trading around $61–62 per barrel, while US WTI is in the range of $58–59. This is close to the lowest marks since the beginning of the summer and reflects expectations of an oil surplus in the market by the fourth quarter. A slight increase in prices in September was replaced by a decline – traders are factoring in a scenario where supply will exceed demand by year-end. At the same time, recent news adds new variables to the oil market:
- Surplus and Cautious Demand. The oil alliance OPEC+ maintains a course of gradually increasing production. At a meeting on 5 October, key countries confirmed an increase in the total quota starting from November by approximately +130,000 barrels per day, continuing a cautious recovery of lost market shares. Concurrently, production volumes are increasing outside of OPEC, particularly in the USA and Brazil, which have come close to record levels. Demand for oil is growing more slowly than expected: the International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for consumption growth in 2025 to approximately 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to more than 2 million in 2023), citing economic slowdowns in Europe and China and the effects of previously high prices. As a result, global commercial oil inventories are rising, adding downward pressure on prices.
- Sanctions and Geopolitics. Western sanctions remain a significant factor of uncertainty. In mid-October, the UK announced sanctions against Russia’s largest oil and gas companies (including Rosneft and Lukoil), tightening industry restrictions. Washington is urging partners to tighten approaches – up to completely halting purchases of Russian oil and preventing evasion schemes through a "shadow" tanker fleet. Military risks are also placing additional pressure on the Russian fuel and energy complex: Ukrainian drone attacks on oil infrastructure have increased. This week, facilities in Saratov and Bashkortostan were damaged, causing some refineries to suspend operations. In response, Russian authorities announced the postponement of scheduled repairs at refineries to saturate the market as much as possible – these steps aim to prevent fuel shortages both domestically and in export directions. In aggregate, the pressure from sanctions and military threats increases volatility: any new tightening or emergencies could reduce available supply and trigger a price spike.
- India's Pivot from Russian Oil. India, the largest importer of Russian oil, has signalled a possible reassessment of its energy policy. According to the US President, Indian leadership has promised to gradually halt purchases of Russian oil, which accounted for about a third of Indian imports. Officially, New Delhi states that its priority is stable prices and reliable supply, but the very fact of discussing such a step has alarmed the market. If India does indeed reduce imports from Russia, Moscow will have to redirect large volumes to other markets or cut production. On one hand, India's exit from Russian barrels will increase pressure on Russian exports and could exacerbate budgetary risks for Russia. On the other hand, the global market will lose a major buyer of Russian raw materials: competitors from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas will fill the falling volumes, which will redistribute trade flows in the long run. News from India temporarily supported oil prices above recent lows as market participants expect a reduction in Russian supply. Analysts note that the combination of these geopolitical factors will prevent prices from falling significantly below current levels – a Brent mark of around $60 per barrel is now regarded as a sort of "floor" for the market, which inhibits further declines.
Overall, the oil market is balancing between the pressure of fundamental factors and political risks. The surplus supply prevents prices from rising; however, sanctions and possible shifts in the market (such as India's abandonment of Russian supplies) do not allow prices to plunge too deeply. Companies and investors are acting cautiously, considering the likelihood of new upheavals – from tightening sanctions to escalating conflicts. The baseline scenario for the coming months suggests a continuation of moderately low prices amidst an oversupply of oil in the global market.
Natural Gas: Record Stocks, Low Prices, and Eastern Export Reorientation
The gas market has comfortable conditions for consumers, especially in Europe, as it heads into autumn. The European Union is entering the winter season with record storage levels: underground gas storage across the EU is on average more than 95% full – significantly higher than last year’s level. Thanks to mild autumn weather and high volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, Europeans have accumulated the necessary reserves in advance without frantic purchases. Wholesale gas prices remain relatively low: the key TTF index in the Netherlands has stabilised in the range of around €30–35 per MWh, which is several times lower than the peaks of autumn 2022. The risk of a repeat of last year’s gas crisis has decreased significantly, although much will depend on weather conditions during winter and the stability of LNG supplies.
- Europe's Rejection of Russian Gas. EU countries continue to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. Direct pipeline deliveries from Russia have fallen to minimal volumes and remain only for a few states under long-term contracts (for example, Hungary). Over the past two years, Russia's share in the EU gas imports has decreased from approximately 40% to below 15%. Brussels is discussing additional measures: the draft of the 19th sanctions package includes a ban on purchases of Russian LNG by 2026–2027, which will legally formalise the complete rejection of energy resources from Russia in the medium term. Currently, the primary resources for Europe are imported LNG from around the world and increased pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan.
- Eastern Pivot in Gas. After losing the European market, Russia is increasing gas exports towards the East. Volumes through the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline to China continue to grow and may reach a record ~22 billion m3 in 2025, approaching the design capacity of the pipeline. Simultaneously, Moscow is negotiating the construction of a second pipeline strand through Mongolia (“Power of Siberia – 2”), the launch of which by the end of the decade will partially compensate for lost European volumes. Additionally, Russia is increasing LNG exports: new liquefaction capacities have been introduced in Yamal and the Far East. Additional batches of Russian LNG are being directed to India, China, Bangladesh, and other Asian countries willing to purchase gas at competitive prices. Nevertheless, the overall gas export from Russia remains below pre-sanction levels – largely due to the current priority for Russian authorities being the domestic market and meeting the needs of allies in the CIS.
Thus, the global gas industry approaches winter in a relatively balanced state. Europe possesses a solid “safety cushion” in case of cold weather, although price spikes cannot be completely ruled out. Simultaneously, global gas trade flows have already changed dramatically: the EU has almost completely abandoned Russian gas, while Russia has pivoted Eastward. Investors are closely monitoring developments – from the pace of new LNG project launches globally to negotiations on new gas supply routes. For now, moderate demand and high inventory levels serve importers well, keeping fuel prices at acceptable levels.
Electricity: Record Consumption and Network Modernisation
Global electricity consumption in 2025 is confidently moving towards new historical highs. Economic growth, digitalisation, and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles are driving demand for electricity in all regions of the world. Analysts estimate that total electricity generation worldwide will exceed 30,000 TWh for the first time in a year. The main contribution to this record is provided by the largest economies: the USA is expected to consume around 4.1 trillion kWh (a new peak for the country), while China will exceed 8.5 trillion kWh. Energy consumption is also rapidly growing in developing countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East due to industrialisation and population growth. Such rapid demand growth presents new challenges for infrastructure:
- Load on Networks. Increased electricity consumption necessitates proactive modernisation of the electrical grid. Many countries have announced large-scale investment programmes for updating and expanding the grid, as well as constructing new power plants – to prevent capacity shortages and interruptions during peak loads. For instance, in the USA, energy companies are investing billions of dollars in strengthening distribution networks in response to rising demand from data centres and electric vehicle charging stations. Similar energy grid reinforcement projects are being implemented in Europe, China, and India. Smart grids and energy storage systems are gaining significance: industrial battery farms and pumped-storage hydropower plants help smooth peak load and integrate the increasing uneven generation from renewable sources. Without infrastructure updates, energy systems will struggle to reliably meet record demand in the coming decades.
Overall, the electricity sector demonstrates resilience, providing the economy with energy even at record levels of consumption. However, maintaining supply reliability will require ongoing investments in the grid, generation, and innovations. Many governments view the electricity sector as a strategic industry, investing in its development despite budget constraints, as the stability of electricity supply underpins the functioning of all other segments of the economy.
Renewable Energy: Investment Boom, Government Support, and New Challenges
The renewable energy sector in 2025 continues to grow rapidly, solidifying the global trend towards the “green” transformation of the fuel and energy complex. Investments in solar and wind energy are breaking records: estimates suggest that around $400 billion has been invested in renewable energy projects worldwide in the first six months of 2025 – a 10–12% increase compared to the same period last year. These funds are primarily directed towards the construction of new solar and wind power plants, as well as the development of related technologies – energy storage systems, digital network management platforms, and so forth. The rapid commissioning of new capacities is already reflecting on the energy balance: clean energy production is increasing without raising carbon emissions.
- Record Generation and Share of Renewables. Renewable sources are increasingly contributing to the world energy balance. Current data indicates that about 30% of electricity generation on the planet is provided by solar, wind, hydro, and other renewable sources. In the European Union, this figure has already exceeded 45% due to active climate policies and the closure of coal-fired power plants. China is nearing the benchmark of 30% generation from renewables, despite the vast scale of its energy system and the ongoing construction of new coal-fired power plants. For the first time in 2025, global electricity generation from solar and wind exceeded that from coal – an important symbolic milestone for global energy.
- Government Support and Incentives. Governments of leading economies are ramping up support for “green” energy. In Europe, more ambitious climate goals are being adopted, necessitating rapid input of clean capacities and the development of emissions trading schemes. In the USA, major subsidy and tax incentive programmes for renewables and related industries continue to be implemented (as part of the Inflation Reduction Act). In CIS countries, promotion of renewables is also gaining momentum: Russia and Kazakhstan are conducting competitions for new solar and wind projects with government support, while Uzbekistan is building large-scale solar parks in the deserts. This stimulating policy aims to reduce industry costs and attract additional investments, accelerating the transition to clean energy.
- Growth Difficulties. Rapid development of renewables is accompanied by challenges. High demand for equipment and raw materials is leading to rising component costs: for instance, prices for polysilicon for solar panels and rare earth materials for wind turbines remained high in 2024–2025. Energy systems are facing the need to integrate intermittent generation – new energy storage solutions and flexible backup capacities are required for network balancing. Moreover, several countries are experiencing shortages of qualified personnel and capacity constraints within the power grids to accommodate the growing renewable generation. Regulators and companies will need to address these issues in order to maintain high rates of the “green” transition without sacrificing supply reliability.
Renewables have already become an integral part of the global energy landscape, attracting massive financial resources. The sector is poised for further expansion – as technology costs decline, the proportion of clean energy will increase, and innovations (such as more efficient batteries or hydrogen projects) will open new opportunities. For investors, renewables remain one of the most dynamic segments, although executing projects necessitates awareness of market risks related to material supply, regulation, and infrastructure constraints.
Coal Market: High Demand in Asia and Long-Term Phase-Out
The global coal market in 2025 demonstrates mixed trends. On one hand, high demand for coal persists in Asian countries – particularly for electricity generation during peak load periods. This summer, a surge in imports of thermal coal was recorded in East Asia: for instance, in August, China, Japan, and South Korea collectively increased purchases by almost 20% compared to the previous month. In China, a temporary tightening of environmental inspections and safety requirements has led to reduced coal output at some mines, while industrial electricity consumption has been rapidly increasing. China compensated for the missing generation by ramping up coal imports, pushing regional prices up: Newcastle coal prices rose above $110 per tonne (a maximum in the past five months). Similarly, India and several other developing economies have increased coal burning to support energy systems during periods of peak summer demand. Thanks to coal, many Asian countries have managed to avoid blackouts and cover the heightened consumption.
On the other hand, the long-term outlook for the coal industry remains negative. More and more countries are adhering to policies aimed at phasing out coal in order to combat climate change and reduce emissions. In the European Union, the share of coal-fired generation has fallen below 10% (down from approximately 15% a few years ago), and 11 EU countries intend to completely close all coal power plants by 2030, replacing them with gas and renewable capacities. In the USA, market conditions are also working against coal: cheap natural gas and rapid growth of renewables continue to displace coal from energy generation, despite certain measures to support the coal industry. Even countries traditionally reliant on coal are reducing its use: for instance, Germany, after a temporary increase in coal burning in 2022–2023, reduced electricity generation from coal-fired power plants again in 2025. Coal prices in the global market have markedly decreased from last year's levels – in the first half of 2025, export prices from major coal hubs dropped by 25–30%, reflecting weakened demand outside Asia.
- Russian Coal Export. For Russia, which is among the top three coal exporters, global trends mean a shift in focus towards eastern markets. Following the EU embargo in 2022, domestic coal companies redirected supplies from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, more than 75% of Russian coal exports go to China, India, Turkey, and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This demand partially compensates for the loss of the European market; however, trading over long distances requires providing significant discounts to buyers and increases transportation costs. In the future, as the global phase-out of coal accelerates in leading economies, Russian coal miners will need to adapt – seeking new buyers, developing deeper coal processing, or refocusing on internal needs (for example, by implementing “clean coal” technologies for powering the growing digital infrastructure). Only enhancing efficiency and flexibility in new conditions will enable Russian coal companies to retain competitiveness and sales volumes.
Thus, the coal sector is experiencing something of a “swan song”: short-term demand for coal remains high in certain regions, but the long-term trend is unequivocally directed towards reducing the role of this fuel. Investors in coal face a contradictory reality: on one hand, coal will still be in demand in Asia and capable of generating profit in the coming years; on the other hand, planning new projects is complicated by risks of losing sales markets by 2030–2040. The focus is on companies' diversification strategies and cost control measures, as well as government policies that can mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the coal sector's downturn.
Domestic Fuel Market: Stabilisation After Crisis and Price Control
In the second half of October, the situation in the domestic fuel market in Russia has significantly improved compared to the critical September. Following acute gasoline shortages in several regions and price spikes, authorities swiftly implemented a package of measures that is beginning to yield results. In most regions of the Russian Federation, motor fuel shortages have been eliminated: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have pulled back from record levels, and independent gas stations have resumed selling fuel without restrictions. However, the government continues to stay vigilant, especially in regions far from oil depots (the Far East, some Siberian regions), where supply has not yet fully normalised. To prevent a new wave of crisis, the following measures have been introduced and extended:
- Export Restrictions. The ban on the export of automotive gasoline, imposed at the end of September, remains in effect and has been extended until 31 December 2025. Similarly, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel for independent suppliers will persist until year-end. These measures enable the maximum volume of petroleum products to be directed to the domestic market to meet internal demand.
- Support for Refineries and Dampener. As of 1 October, the government has suspended the fuel dampener mechanism. This means the state will continue to pay compensation to refineries for domestic market supplies, even if exchange prices for fuel exceed threshold values. This preserves the financial incentive to direct gasoline and diesel to filling stations within the country. Furthermore, additional incentives for increased production are being considered: authorities have urged refineries to postpone non-urgent repairs and boost raw material processing in the coming months.
- Import and Market Monitoring. To replenish shortages in certain regions, discussions are underway to simplify fuel imports. Specifically, a temporary zeroing of import duties on gasoline and diesel is being considered, which would facilitate the sourcing of supplies from allies (such as Belarusian refineries). Moreover, regulatory authorities have intensified price monitoring: the Federal Antimonopoly Service has issued warnings to several major gas station networks for unjustified price increases. The government aims to avoid direct administrative price freezes at gas stations, opting instead for targeted market mechanisms – such as enhanced dampeners and subsidies for fuel carriers in remote areas.
Initial results from these efforts are already tangible. By mid-October, daily output of gasoline and diesel in Russia has been restored after a decline at the end of summer – aided by the completion of unscheduled repairs at several refineries and the redirecting of export volumes to the domestic market. In the central and southern regions of the country, wholesale bases and filling stations have again accrued normal fuel supplies. Authorities are hoping to navigate the impending winter season without serious supply disruptions. Nevertheless, the situation requires ongoing monitoring: the government is prepared to introduce additional measures if necessary to prevent a repeat of the fuel crisis. At a systemic level, the question of modernising the industry arises – developing storage and fuel delivery infrastructure, implementing digital platforms for transparent resource allocation, and enhancing the depth of oil refining within the country. These tasks were discussed in dedicated sections at the REN-2025 forum, underscoring that emergency measures alone are insufficient for the long-term stability of the domestic market – a comprehensive modernisation of the fuel sector is essential.
Forecasts and Prospects: Forum Outcomes and Risks of the Upcoming Winter
Overall, the global energy sector is approaching the end of 2025 in a state of active adaptation to new realities. The ongoing confrontation between Russia and Western countries is reshaping global trade in energy resources: oil and gas flows are being redistributed, and sanction limitations push the search for alternative routes and partners. Companies in the fuel and energy complex strive to mitigate risks – whether by redirecting exports to Asian markets, developing their own processing of raw materials, or hedging against price fluctuations. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: record investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are forming a long-term configuration of the industry in which “green” generation plays an increasingly prominent role.
Successfully navigating the upcoming winter months poses a significant challenge for energy markets. Europe is set to face a cold weather test: will it be able to maintain gas balance amidst potential extreme frosts without resuming imports from Russia? In Russia, the stability of domestic fuel supply will be the key test: implemented measures should prevent a new spike in shortages during winter. Moreover, the backdrop of international risks remains – from geopolitical conflicts (the tense situation in the Middle East and the continuing conflict in Ukraine) to potential emergencies such as technological failures or natural disasters that could impact energy infrastructure.
The international forum "Russian Energy Week 2025", which concluded on 17 October under the motto "Creating the Energy of the Future Together", became an important platform for discussing current challenges and seeking solutions. Within the framework of REN-2025, substantial attention was paid to ensuring the domestic market is supplied with energy resources and unlocking Russia's export potential under new conditions. The forum hosted an energy dialogue "Russia – OPEC", as well as numerous meetings with representatives from Asian and African countries. Following the forum, over a dozen cooperation agreements in the energy sector were signed – from electrical grid projects and renewable energy to equipment import substitution programmes for oil and gas. These agreements and established partnerships will set the tone for further reforms and investments in the sector. Russian leadership confirmed its intent to strengthen the country's position in global energy markets while simultaneously guaranteeing reliable energy supply for its own economy.
As the new year approaches, investors and market participants in the fuel and energy complex are looking forward with cautious optimism. The industry is displaying remarkable resilience in the face of unprecedented challenges – be it sanctions, logistics restructuring, or technological shifts. Adaptation is ongoing, and 2025 has become a time of significant changes for energy. It remains to be seen how successfully the global fuel and energy complex will navigate the winter months and consolidate the achieved balance of interests during this challenging phase. One thing is certain: the fuel and energy complex is globally progressing towards a new level of interaction and innovation, and its key players are poised for change, investing in the future and strengthening cooperation on the international stage.
