Current TKE news for Thursday, 2nd October 2025: Global oil prices, gas pivot to the East, coal export, refinery modernisation, renewable energy, and domestic fuel market. Analysis of trends for investors and participants in the energy sector.
Global Oil Prices
Brent crude oil prices continue to decline amid expectations of an increase in production under the OPEC+ agreement and concerns about economic growth slowing in the US and Asia. As of 1st October, Brent futures had dropped to approximately $65 per barrel, marking the lowest level since June. Investors are factoring in forecasts that OPEC+ could raise production by 500,000 barrels per day in November, while US crude oil inventories are rising faster than anticipated.
Russian Fuel Market
The Russian government has extended the existing ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025, applying it to all market participants, including direct producers. Simultaneously, a complete ban on the export of diesel fuel and marine fuel has been introduced (with the exception of direct deliveries from refineries). These measures are being taken against the backdrop of rising gasoline prices on exchanges and fears of fuel shortages. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) of the Russian Federation is monitoring the situation at petrol stations, gathering data on pricing and fuel reserves from networks to identify possible violations.
- Export Bans: The decision to impose a complete ban on gasoline and diesel exports is aimed at stabilising domestic prices and ensuring sufficient fuel supplies for the regions.
- FAS Monitoring: The service regularly requests data on prices and fuel reserves from petrol stations to assess the presence of cartel agreements or unjustified price increases.
- Price Dynamics: In September, prices for Regular-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange increased by 6-7%, reaching approximately 73-74 thousand rubles per tonne. The average price for AI-92 (around 72.3 thousand rubles/ton) is nearing the threshold values of the damping mechanism, which may potentially lead to additional payments to oil producers.
- Regional Supplies: Sergey Aksyonov, the head of Crimea, has promised to resolve the local gasoline shortage in the republic in the shortest possible time - providing volumes of AI-95 within 2 days and AI-92 within two weeks. No problems are anticipated with diesel supplies.
Refineries: Modernisation and Fuel Production
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that in 2025-2026, the country will commission updated capacities at oil refineries with state support. As part of the modernisation programme, around 30 new deep processing units will be reconstructed and launched, which will provide additional volumes of gasoline and diesel for the domestic market.
- Refinery modernisations will come online in 2025-2026, allowing for increased production of oil products to ensure a stable supply for the domestic market.
- Agreements have been signed with the Ministry of Energy for refinery modernisation, including the launch of new secondary oil processing units and fuel bitumen coking units (over 30 units).
- The expansion of refinery capacities is expected to compensate for decreases in production and logistical risks, ensuring a balance in the motor fuel market.
Gas and LNG Exports: China and India
Russia is continuing its active pivot towards Asian gas and LNG markets. Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilev stated that Moscow intends to significantly increase exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China, primarily through the projects “Arctic LNG-2” and “Sakhalin-2.” Similar plans are in place for pipeline supply increases: in September, Gazprom coordinated with CNPC to raise deliveries via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline to 44 billion cubic metres per year (up from the current 38 billion) and signed a memorandum for the construction of Power of Siberia-2, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic metres through Mongolia. Meanwhile, India, the largest buyer of oil, maintains approximately one-third of its overall import share as Russian crude, despite US tariffs (in September, Moscow even became the largest oil supplier to India).
- LNG Supplies: Cooperation with China will expand, particularly regarding “Arctic LNG-2” and “Sakhalin-2”. An increase in LNG shipments to Asia is forecasted.
- Power of Siberia: The construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline through Mongolia (50 billion cubic metres/year) has already been agreed upon at the memorandum level.
- Existing Contracts: The capacity of Power of Siberia will be increased to 44 billion cubic metres per year; supplies from Sakhalin (North Asia - Jiang) will rise to 12 billion cubic metres (up from 10 billion).
- Indian Market: Even after the introduction of a 25% US tariff in September on Russian raw materials, India continued its purchases, with Russian oil accounting for about a third of its imports.
Coal: Export Dynamics
Kuzbass coal producers are also ramping up exports abroad. According to the TsChIV, the export of energy coal (5500-6000 kcal) from Russia increased by 2% year-on-year to approximately 135 million tonnes from January to August 2025. Turkey (+43% year-on-year to 12.7 million tonnes) and South Korea (+36% to 13.8 million tonnes) lead the way, with Russian coal competing favourably on price amid declining shipments from Australia. Exports to China also rose (~+5% to ~67 million tonnes) against the backdrop of China’s efforts to combat coal overproduction. Conversely, shipments to India fell by 29% (to 13.4 million tonnes), while those to Japan nearly halved. Prices for energy coal at the Russian coast remain competitive – approximately $70–72 per tonne FOB.
- Supplies to Turkey and South Korea showed double-digit growth, with moderate increases in China. Russia maintains its position as one of the largest suppliers to Asia.
- On spot markets, energy coal of the 5500 kcal variety is trading at around $72/tonne FOB Far East, which remains below that of its main competitors.
- Overall, global demand for coal in the Asia-Pacific region supports Russian exports, although the domestic share of coal in electricity production is decreasing.
Renewable Energy and Investments
The global energy sector is experiencing rapid growth in "green" investments. According to the IEA, global investments in energy could reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with more than $2.2 trillion allocated to clean technologies (including RES, nuclear power, and storage). The largest beneficiary will be solar generation, with its funding expected to rise to approximately $450 billion per year. In Russia, however, renewable sources are still a niche segment: the installed capacity of RES by April 2025 was only approximately 6.6 GW, accounting for around 2.6% of total electricity production. In the coming years, there are plans to stimulate the construction of wind farms and solar facilities primarily in the southern and coastal regions of the country.
- Clean Energy: Global spending on RES and batteries is soon expected to double the investments in oil and gas.
- Solar Energy: explosive growth in investments (up to ~$450 billion in 2025) is anticipated, creating competition for investments with the fossil sector.
- Russian RES: The share of electricity generation remains low (~2.6%), but the government is developing new tariff mechanisms and incentives for wind and solar projects.
- Hydro and nuclear energy in Russia remain the main sources of “carbon-free” generation; however, the share of small hydropower plants and biomass is gradually increasing.
In conclusion, the main trends in the TKE as of 2nd October 2025 are as follows: the global raw materials market situation remains volatile (oil prices are decreasing due to concerns over oversupply), while Russia is strengthening its positions in eastern markets (gas and LNG to China/India). On the domestic front, authorities are betting on stability through export restrictions and refinery modernisation to smooth out price fluctuations and eliminate fuel shortages. Investors and market participants should consider these trends when planning operations in oil, gas, electricity, coal, and petroleum products.
