Oil and Gas News and Energy Update for 25 July 2026: Brent above $100 per barrel, TTF gas at highest level since January 2023, halt in CPC shipments, OPEC+ quotas, Russia's fuel market, coal, electricity, and renewable energy sources. An overview for investors and energy market participants.
The global fuel and energy complex enters the weekend under maximum strain for the past four years. The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, which has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, has pushed Brent crude prices above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while European gas prices at the TTF hub have reached heights not seen since January 2023. Simultaneously, shipments of Kazakh oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have been suspended, and the Russian domestic oil products market is only just beginning to recover from a critical phase of scarcity. Below is a comprehensive overview of the key developments in the oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and energy market participants.
Key Highlights for Saturday Morning, 25 July 2026
- Oil: Brent closed on Thursday at $100.69 per barrel (+7%), WTI at $92.19 (+6.2%). On Friday, the market corrected downwards by approximately 5% — Brent traded around $95–96, WTI near $88.
- Monthly Dynamics: Brent has gained over 30% since July 1, when it stood at $71.57 per barrel — one of the sharpest monthly increases since 2022.
- Gas: TTF futures surged above €63/MWh — the highest since January 2023; an increase of over 45% since the beginning of July and nearly double year-on-year.
- Logistics: CPC has suspended shipments in Novorossiysk; Kazakhstan has reduced production.
- Coal: Newcastle remains around $130 per tonne amid the replacement of lost LNG supplies.
- Electricity: The IEA forecasts a global demand increase for electricity of 3.6% in 2026.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Re-emerges in Prices
The oil market has been living in a reactive mode to military reports for five weeks. The breakthrough past the $100 mark for Brent followed reports of attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and statements regarding the US’s readiness to strike Iran heavily. This marked the apex of a rally during which the commodity sector gained over 30% in three weeks.
Factors Driving Prices Upwards
- Physical reductions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of global oil trade.
- The threat of a blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — an alternative route for Saudi exports bypassing Hormuz.
- The halt in shipments of Kazakh oil to the Black Sea, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
- Depleted commercial stocks of oil and oil products in OECD countries following the spring phase of the conflict.
- Increasing freight and insurance costs being passed through to refinery gate prices.
Factors Tempering Growth
- The diplomatic track: reports of Pakistan, with Chinese support, attempting to renew negotiations between the US and Iran have immediately reduced the market by about 5% of the premium.
- China's vested interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf hurt the interests of the world's largest oil importer.
- OPEC+’s spare capacity and the ongoing recovery of quotas.
Forecasts vary significantly. RBC Capital Markets suggests that should further escalation ensue, Brent could surpass the 2022 peak of $128 per barrel. Conversely, UBS expects a correction to $85 by year-end, emphasizing that recovery of production in the Middle East is slower than market expectations, which will keep the oil market in a state of deficit.
OPEC+: Quotas Increase, but Actual Barrels Flowing Slower
The alliance continues its phased recovery of production. The July quota for the 'group of eight' stood at 30.633 million barrels per day, corresponding to an increase of over 1 million barrels per day from June; the monthly easing step has remained at 188,000 barrels per day. The overall policy of the alliance has been confirmed until 31 December 2026, with a maximum allowable production level set at 39.725 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, assessments of the maximum production capacities of participants are ongoing, which will form the basis for the baseline quotas for 2027.
The key issue for OPEC+ today is not the nominal quotas, but logistics: a significant portion of spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf countries and is physically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, the associated risks of which are driving up prices. The UAE’s exit from the alliance since 1 May 2026 has additionally reduced the managed pool of supply.
Gas Market: TTF at Highs, Europe Risks Not Filling Gas Storage
The European gas market has become the second epicentre of the crisis. TTF prices have soared over 45% since the beginning of July and surpassed €63/MWh. The structural reasons include:
- A reduction in Qatari LNG supplies and export limitations from the Persian Gulf;
- The redirection of American LNG cargoes to Asian markets with higher prices;
- Abnormal heat in Europe, increasing demand for electricity to power air conditioning and, consequently, gas for generation;
- Rising freight and insurance rates on routes through conflict zones.
The largest gas supplier to Europe, Equinor, has warned that the region is highly unlikely to meet the target level of filling underground storage to 80% by the beginning of the heating season. The pace of filling is lagging behind the five-year average, making the winter of 2026-2027 a significant risk for European industry. An additional layer to the problem is the inflationary one: against the backdrop of the energy shock, the ECB on 23 July maintained its deposit rate at 2.25%, yet a significant number of economists expect another rate hike by the end of the year.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium: Hit to Kazakhstan's Exports
On 19 July, the CPC halted the loading of oil at the marine terminal near Novorossiysk following drone attacks on two tankers. From 21 July, Kazakhstan halted the pumping of crude into the consortium’s system: ship owners are refusing to direct vessels to the terminal. The CPC accounts for about 80-90% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and over 1% of global oil supply; approximately 63 million tonnes of crude flowed through the system in 2025.
On 23 July, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan confirmed the forced reduction of daily production to prevent tank farm overflows. Some volumes are being redirected via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, but its capacity does not allow for a full compensation of lost exports. For European refineries oriented toward CPC Blend, this means an urgent need to seek substitutive batches of light low-sulphur oil.
Russia: Fuel Market Gradually Emerging from Acute Phase
The internal market for oil products in Russia is experiencing its most challenging summer in recent years. The gasoline and diesel fuel shortages observed since late May have been caused by a combination of factors: unscheduled stoppages at refineries, seasonal peaks in demand during the vacation period and harvest campaign, as well as logistical constraints in the southern regions.
The package of measures taken includes:
- A complete ban on the export of gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, aviation kerosene, and gas oil;
- A reduction in the regulatory requirement for mandatory exchange sales of gasoline from 15% to 10% for the period from 1 July to 30 September;
- The waiver of import duties and increased imports of oil products from Belarus;
- The maximum loading of operational capacities, shortening the periods of current repairs and rescheduling planned ones;
- The involvement of medium and small refineries.
On 21 July, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the beginning of market stabilisation, noting that in certain regions the situation is being resolved “in a manual, targeted mode.” Priority has been given to supplying agricultural producers during the harvest season and northern logistics. The FAS has initiated 15 cases against market participants, and on 23 July, the Ministry of Energy instructed oil companies to consider lifting regional limits on the sale of fuel volumes below 50 litres – a signal that authorities believe the peak of the crisis has been passed.
Russian Oil Exports: Volatility of Discounts
The dynamics of Russian export grade Urals in 2026 demonstrate an unusual amplitude. In April-May, at the peak of the Middle Eastern crisis, Urals in supplies to India and China traded at a premium to Brent, reflecting acute shortages of sour grades. By June-July, prices returned to a discount range of $2–3 per barrel due to reduced activity from Asian processors and narrowing margins of independent Chinese refineries. The current rise in benchmark prices once again improves export revenues, yet the sanctions infrastructure – restrictions on freight, insurance, and settlements – continues to keep realised prices below exchange indices.
Coal Market: A Comeback Amid LNG Shortages
Coal is making a return to the global energy agenda as a fuel of last resort. Australian thermal coal Newcastle is trading around $130 per tonne. The decline in LNG supplies to Asia is creating additional demand: according to industry analysts, the additional consumption of coal in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 could reach around 70 million tonnes, and with a renewed escalation of hostilities — up to 90 million tonnes.
Japan leads in terms of coal generation growth, with output at coal-fired plants rising at double-digit rates alongside reductions in gas generation. South Korea and Taiwan are also increasing the load on coal capacities. Conversely, India is curtailing imports due to increased self-production and high stock levels, while China remains relatively insulated due to its low gas share in the energy balance. Notably, the largest mining companies are hesitant to sanction new projects, viewing the surge in demand as cyclical rather than structural.
Electricity and Renewables: A Record Year Amid Crisis
The paradox of 2026 is that the energy shock has not slowed down but accelerated the energy transition. According to the latest update from the International Energy Agency, global demand for electricity will grow by 3.6% in 2026 and another 3.8% in 2027—from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh by 2027. The drivers include industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centres.
Key points from the generation forecast include:
- Renewable generation will, for the first time in history, surpass coal globally in 2026.
- Renewable generation will grow by over 8%, increasing its share in global generation from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
- Solar generation will add about 600 TWh, overtaking wind power to become the second-largest renewable source after hydropower.
- Electricity demand in India will rise by 7%; the country has for the first time crossed the 100 GW mark for variable renewable generation.
The investment picture corroborates the trend: total investments in global energy in 2026 are estimated at $3.4 trillion, of which about $2.2 trillion is directed towards low-carbon technologies and grid infrastructure. Renewables account for approximately $665 billion, including $365 billion in solar energy – essentially $1 billion daily, $200 billion in wind energy, and $75 billion in hydropower. Investments in energy storage systems will for the first time exceed $100 billion, increasing by over 35% year-on-year. The rationale for investors is simple: self-generated energy is a hedge against geopolitical shocks in hydrocarbon supply chains.
Implications for Energy Market Participants
The market has entered a phase where pricing is determined not by the balance of supply and demand, but by probabilistic assessments of military scenarios. Practical conclusions for investors, fuel and oil companies include:
- Hedging has become essential. The amplitude of movements of 5-7% per session makes unhedged positions in oil, gas, and oil products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refining margins are under pressure from both sides. Rising raw material costs alongside administrative or competitive constraints on release prices are squeezing refinery crack spreads.
- Logistics matters more than geology. The scenarios in Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the price of a barrel today is determined by the throughput of bottlenecks, rather than the volume of reserves underground.
- Coal and nuclear receive a premium for predictability. Assets with long contractual horizons and internal resource bases are being reassessed upwards.
- The winter risk in Europe has not dissipated. The lag in filling storage facilities creates potential for a further price surge in TTF in the fourth quarter.
The immediate reference points for the market include the dynamics of the diplomatic track around Iran, the resumption of CPC shipments, the rate of gas injections into European storage, and OPEC+’s next decision on quotas. Any of these events could shift prices by $5-10 per barrel within a single session. Investors and energy market participants should anticipate that heightened volatility in the oil, gas, and energy sector will persist at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
