Current TЭK News as of 30 September 2025: Fuel Shortage in Russia, Falling Oil Prices, Rising Demand for Electricity, Development of REE and Coal Trends in Asia. An Analysis of Global Energy Market Events.
The end of September has been marked by significant fluctuations in global energy markets: oil prices have declined amid rising supply, while Russia is facing a fuel crisis, forcing authorities to implement emergency measures. At the same time, gas markets are demonstrating relative stability due to high reserves, electricity demand is reaching record levels, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) is continuing to rise, and demand for coal in Asia has temporarily increased. Below is an overview of key events in the raw materials and energy sectors that are pertinent to investors and market participants.
Fuel Shortage in Russia and Government Measures
In many regions of Russia by the end of September, a shortage of motor fuel has arisen. Independent fuel stations have begun to impose restrictions on the sale of petrol – no more than 10-20 litres per customer, while several major networks have stopped selling fuel in cans altogether. Exchange prices for oil products have reached record highs in recent months, leading to an increase in retail prices: the average cost of AI-92 petrol has exceeded 60 rubles per litre. In some areas, a number of small fuel stations have temporarily suspended operations due to state-regulated retail prices, which have rendered fuel sales unprofitable. The shortage is most acutely felt in regions far from oil refineries (such as Crimea, the Far East), and by the end of the month, the problem had extended to central regions (Moscow region, Volga region, etc.).
- Causes of the Crisis: Seasonal increases in demand (autumn sowing and harvesting campaigns), planned and unplanned repairs at oil refineries, as well as drone attacks on oil infrastructure that disrupted production. An additional factor has been the operation of the damping mechanism: oil companies had restrained wholesale prices in exchange for budget compensation, but this scheme failed when prices surged, leading to supply disruptions.
- Government Actions: A complete ban on the export of petrol has been imposed (extended at least until the end of the year) and exports of diesel fuel for traders have been limited in order to redirect maximum volumes to the domestic market. Additionally, it is planned to adjust the parameters of the damping subsidy in favour of oil refiners. These measures aim to stabilise the situation at petrol stations and reduce prices.
Commentary. A mere export ban will not be sufficient to resolve the crisis, believes Sergey Tereshkin. It is necessary to increase supply in the domestic market through fuel imports from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other countries. The primary difficulty of the current crisis lies in the risks of petrol shortages associated with necessary repairs at oil refineries, the timing of which is unpredictable due to sanctions on equipment supplies, explained the expert to the "Russian Gazette".
Oil Market: Increasing Supply, Decreasing Prices
Global oil prices turned downwards in the last days of September after several weeks of growth. Quotes for Brent fell below $70 per barrel – to ~$68 (the lowest in the last month and a half), while WTI is trading around $64. The primary cause is expectations of increased production from OPEC+ countries and an actual rise in supply to the market. Reports have emerged that the alliance may increase its production quotas by about 137,000 barrels per day in November. The final decision will be discussed on 5 October at an OPEC+ meeting.
An additional factor contributing to the sharp increase in supply is the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan (northern Iraq) via Turkey after more than a two-year hiatus. Exports from this region are already reaching ~180,000 barrels/day and could rise to 230,000 barrels/day. Last week, markets were embedding risks of disruptions into prices, supporting quotes amid rising geopolitical tensions (concerns about new sanctions on Russian exports, conflicts in the Middle East). However, fundamental indicators of supply and demand are now signalling a likely formation of oil surpluses in Q4. The largest producers in the Persian Gulf are increasing production, and global stocks may begin to rise.
- Market Sentiment: Analysts note that geopolitics and OPEC+ decisions remain key drivers of prices in the short term. While OPEC+ members are announcing increases in quotas, the actual boost in supply may be more modest due to limited spare capacity (many countries are already close to maximum production).
- Demand and Sanctions: The United States is advocating for tightening sanctions on Russian oil – Washington is urging allies to completely halt purchases from the Russian Federation, and 100% tariffs on imports of Russian oil for India and China are being discussed. These steps could limit supply from Russia and create a new round of tension in energy markets.
- Russian Exports: Despite the sanctions, Moscow has managed to redirect much of its oil to alternative markets. Russian oil currently meets about one-third of India's raw material import needs, and a significant reduction in this volume is not observed for now. However, potential tightening of sanctions in the future remains one of the risks for the balance of supply and demand.
Natural Gas: Stabilisation in Europe and New Fields
The natural gas market is more balanced. Europe has approached the start of the heating season with record reserves: underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are more than 90% full. This is significantly higher than a year ago and reduces the likelihood of a repeat of the price shock from last winter. Wholesale gas prices in the EU are being maintained at relatively comfortable levels, and volatility is lower than in 2022-2023. Demand from industry remains moderate, partly due to energy-saving measures and the transition of some consumers to alternative fuels.
Positive news has also emerged from the Eastern Mediterranean: a new large gas field has been discovered off the Cyprus coast with estimated reserves of up to 255 billion cubic metres. The government of Cyprus has already begun negotiations with a major oil and gas company (ExxonMobil) regarding the development of this field. The discovery promises to strengthen the energy independence of the country and the entire European Union in the future, increasing its own gas resource base.
Energy cooperation continues in the Eurasian space. A meeting between the presidents of Russia and Belarus recently took place in Moscow, where agreements were reached on the supply of natural gas to Belarus for the next five years. The details of the agreement remain undisclosed, but it is expected that Minsk will retain special, preferential conditions for Russian gas, allowing the republic to plan its economy with predictable fuel prices. Additionally, cooperation in nuclear energy was discussed: Belarus is considering the construction of another nuclear power plant with technological support from Moscow, as announced by Alexander Lukashenko at a recent international nuclear forum.
Record Demand for Electricity
Global demand for electricity continues to rise and, according to forecasts, 2025 is set to be a record year for electricity consumption. This is primarily linked to the accelerated digitalisation and electrification of the economy. For example, in the United States, a historical peak in consumption is expected: according to estimates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Americans are projected to consume over 4.18 trillion kWh in 2025, significantly more than last year's level. The growth is driven by an increasing number of data centres (including for the development of artificial intelligence), the widespread adoption of electric transport, and the transition of residential and commercial heating from gas to electricity.
Increased demand is being recorded not only in the USA – in developing economies in Asia and the Middle East, the growing population and industrialisation are also leading to record levels of electricity consumption. On one hand, this signals global economic growth and new opportunities for energy companies. On the other hand, the strain on energy systems necessitates infrastructure upgrades and generation diversification to meet demand without disruptions. Energy companies in many countries are announcing multi-billion investment programmes in networks and generating capacities, aiming to preemptively address potential power shortages and prevent the threat of outages.
- Generation Structure: The energy balance is gradually shifting. In the USA, the share of natural gas in electricity generation is projected to decrease from 42% to ~40% in the next year or two, while the share of coal is expected to stabilise temporarily around 16-17%. The gradual reduction of nuclear energy's role continues (in the USA – from 19% to 18%). Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources continues to steadily grow as new capacities come online.
- CIS Regions: An increase in energy consumption is also being recorded in CIS countries, although the pace is more modest than the global average. For instance, in Russia, electricity demand is expected to increase by 2-3% in 2025, even as electricity exports to neighbouring countries have decreased due to geopolitical factors. Energy systems in the region are undergoing a phase of adaptation, investing in support for network reliability and the integration of renewable capacities.
Renewable Energy: Investments and Record Growth
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to expand their footprint in the global energy balance. The year 2025 may set records in several areas of RES development. According to analysts, global investments in clean energy are hitting new highs: in the first half of 2025, approximately $386 billion was invested in renewable energy projects, a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. Capital is mainly being invested in solar and wind power plants, as well as in energy storage infrastructure (industrial batteries) and networks.
The speed of new capacity additions is particularly impressive. In the first six months of 2025, approximately 380 GW of solar generation capacity was added globally – a 64% increase compared to the first half of 2024. This explosive growth is supported by large-scale projects in China, India, and the USA, as well as the accelerated construction of solar parks in the Middle East and Europe. Wind energy is also not lagging behind: major offshore wind farms have been launched off the coasts of the United Kingdom, China, and Vietnam, resulting in a substantial increase in global wind energy capacity.
- Share in Generation: RES now account for an increasingly significant portion of electricity production. On average, renewable sources (solar, wind, hydro, etc.) contribute approximately 30% of global generation. In the EU, this figure is even higher – over 45% due to the large-scale "green transition" programme. In China, the share of RES is approaching 30%, while the Chinese energy system itself continues to expand rapidly.
- New Initiatives: Governments continue to support the sector. In the EU, updated climate targets have taken effect, expediting the construction of RES at an accelerated pace. In the USA, subsidies and tax credits for equipment manufacturers are being implemented (as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA). Even CIS countries are getting involved: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia have announced tenders for the construction of solar and wind stations, attracting investors through guaranteed capacity auctions and other support measures.
- Problematic Aspects: Despite record figures, the sector faces challenges. Supply chains and material supplies (such as poly-silicon for solar panels) are strained due to high demand. Networks in many countries require upgrading to integrate unstable generation. Nevertheless, the trend towards the decarbonisation of energy remains unchanged, and investments in RES are likely to continue to grow.
Coal: Asian Surge and Coal Ban Policy
After a prolonged period of decline, global coal trade has shown a temporary resurgence. In August, the volume of global energy coal shipments reached its highest point since late 2024. This surge is due to a sharp increase in imports from East Asian countries. China, Japan, and South Korea have ramped up coal purchases to meet electricity generation needs: combined imports from these three countries rose by nearly 20% in August compared to the previous month. China has seen a reduction in its own coal production (due to safety measures and environmental restrictions), whereas electricity demand in industry has rebounded. This has led to heightened demand for imported coal to compensate for the deficit. Prices in the Asian coal market have responded with an upward trend: Australian benchmark coal from Newcastle port increased to ~$110 per tonne (a five-month high).
Experts indicate that this surge may be temporary. If production in China normalises and winter in Asia is mild, the demand for imported coal may decline again. There are already forecasts that overall global coal trade may decrease in 2025 compared to last year, continuing the trend of gradual reduction.
Meanwhile, Western countries persist in their policies to phase out coal. In the EU, the share of coal in electricity generation has fallen below 10% (from ~15-16% a few years ago), and as many as 11 EU countries plan to eliminate coal-fired power plants from their energy balance by 2030. The transition to gas and RES, along with the introduction of carbon taxes, is rendering coal increasingly uncompetitive in Europe. Notably, even in traditionally coal-reliant Germany, coal generation is projected to decline in 2025, despite a temporary increase in 2022-2023.
Approaches to coal energy vary among major global economies. In the USA, on the other hand, federal authorities have decided to support the industry: the administration has announced plans to expand licensing for coal production and allocate ~$600 million for upgrading coal power plants to extend their service life. These measures are motivated by the desire to ensure energy security and maintain jobs in mining regions; however, they face criticism from environmentalists. Such steps, experts argue, could complicate achieving emissions reduction targets, particularly given that several countries are increasing oil and gas production.
Forecasts and Expectations
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2025, investors in the TЭK are focused on several key intrigues. Firstly, the OPEC+ decision on 5 October regarding future oil production: if the alliance confirms the increase in quotas, this could keep Brent prices in the range of $65-70 per barrel, although much will depend on the actual implementation of these plans. Secondly, the upcoming winter season in Europe and Asia: comfortable gas stocks reduce the likelihood of price spikes, but weather remains an unpredictable factor. A mild winter would strengthen stability in the gas market, while harsh cold could push prices up again even with full storage facilities.
In the domestic market of Russia, the fuel market is awaiting the results of government measures. Experts are hopeful that the petrol situation will stabilise in October: the scheduled completion of repairs at several oil refineries and the redirection of export volumes to Russian petrol stations should improve regional supply. Assuming continued price controls and additional support for oil refiners, the fuel shortage will gradually ease. Nevertheless, market participants are preparing for volatility: any new emergency – from geopolitical events to technological accidents – could exacerbate supply situations once again.
Long-term trends in the raw materials and energy sectors remain mixed. On one hand, the world is rapidly investing in green energy, and renewable sources will claim an increasingly larger market share. On the other hand, oil, gas, and coal will maintain key positions in the energy balance in the coming years, particularly in Asia and developing countries. Investors will need to consider both vectors: investing in new technologies while also monitoring the traditional hydrocarbon market, where price dynamics are influenced by both economic factors and politics. In the near future, market attention will be focused on the implementation of announced measures and agreements – from the gas deal with Belarus to the efficiency of the Russian fuel damping mechanism – and on how the global TЭK will transition into 2026 amidst the energy transition.
