Oil and Gas and Energy News — Wednesday, 11 February 2026: Sanction Pressure, Redirection of Oil Supplies, and Record LNG Imports
By early February 2026, the global energy market is grappling with conflicting factors. On one hand, the supply of oil and gas is beginning to outstrip demand, creating conditions for a surplus and keeping prices at moderate levels. On the other hand, persistent geopolitical tensions and the pressure of sanctions prevent oil prices from declining sharply. Western countries continue to tighten restrictions on the export of Russian hydrocarbons: new measures were introduced in early February, including a reduction of the price cap on Russian oil and additional bans on maritime transport.
Under external pressure, key importers like India are reducing purchases of Russian energy supplies, redirecting demand to alternative suppliers. Oil quotes remain relatively stable (Brent around $68–69 per barrel) due to expectations of an oversupply. The European gas market is experiencing a winter without panic; despite rapid depletion of stocks, mild weather and record volumes of LNG imports are mitigating the situation. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—with record capacities of clean energy being commissioned—although oil, gas, and coal still constitute the backbone of the world energy balance. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the energy sector as of mid-February 2026.
Oil Market: Surplus Supply Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, global oil quotes stabilised after a slight uptick. The North Sea Brent is trading around $68–69 per barrel, while the American WTI is around $64–65. The oil market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. Analysts forecast a significant oil surplus in the first quarter of 2026—with the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimating that global supply could exceed demand by around 4 million barrels per day. However, various threats of supply disruptions prevent prices from dropping significantly below current levels.
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. In February, another round of sanctions came into effect: the EU and the UK reduced the price cap on Russian oil to $44 per barrel and expanded restrictions on tanker shipments of crude from Russia. The USA has adopted a tougher stance regarding Iran, not ruling out the use of force against its oil infrastructure. A political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily curtailed exports from there. All these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially compensating for the pressures from oversupply.
- Redirection of Export Flows. Major Asian buyers are adjusting their oil imports under the diplomatic pressure from the West. India, which had recently purchased over 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude, has begun sharply reducing these supplies. In January 2026, Russian oil imports into India dropped to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day—the lowest level in nearly a year. According to US President Donald Trump, a new trade deal with India implies that Indian refineries will effectively abandon purchases of Russian oil. Although New Delhi has not officially declared an embargo, major Indian companies have already stopped placing orders for Russian crude. Consequently, Moscow is redirecting its exports to other markets, primarily to China, where refineries are eager to purchase Russian oil at a discount, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Depleting Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
As of February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Gas stocks in the EU dropped to approximately 44% of total capacity by the end of January—this is the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, and significantly below the ten-year average (~58%). Nevertheless, mild winter weather and high liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are preventing shortages and price shocks. Futures prices for gas (TTF index) are holding at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability.
- Depletion of Stocks and Need for Replenishment. Winter extraction is leading to a rapid decrease in fuel volumes in storage facilities. If current trends continue, by the end of March, European UGS facilities may only be filled to about 30%. To replenish stocks to 80-90% before the next winter, the EU will need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the interseason. Achieving this goal will require maximizing purchases during the warm months—a significant portion of current imports is immediately consumed. Replenishing underground reserves by autumn will pose a serious challenge for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. The reduction in pipeline supplies to Europe is compensated by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, EU countries purchased around 175 billion cubic metres of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are projected to reach 185 billion. The growth in supplies is supported by an expansion in global production: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the USA, Canada, Qatar, and other countries increases global production by approximately 7%. The European market hopes to once again navigate the heating season of 2026/27 through high LNG purchases, especially as the European Union intends to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027 (with approximately 33 billion cubic meters per year in additional LNG volumes required).
Fuel Products Market: Stabilising After Disruptions
- At the beginning of 2026, the global fuel products market (petrol, diesel, jet fuel, etc.) is gradually normalising after a period of shortages. Fuel demand remains high due to the recovery of transport and industry; however, the introduction of new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East has helped eliminate acute imbalances. Prices for petrol and diesel have come down from the peaks of 2022–2023, although local surges are still possible (in the event of extreme cold or disruptions in fuel supplies). Governments in many countries are taking measures to smooth out price spikes—reducing taxes, selling fuel from reserves, or temporarily limiting exports. In particular, in Russia, after the fuel crisis of 2025, restrictions on the export of petrol and diesel remain in place, while a compensation mechanism for refineries prevents domestic prices from soaring.
Electricity: Rising Demand and Strengthening Infrastructure
- Global electricity consumption is steadily growing (over 3.5% annually according to IEA forecasts) amidst accelerated electrification of transport, digitalisation of the economy, and increased use of air conditioning. Even in developed countries, after years of stagnation, demand is once again increasing. These trends require substantial investments in energy networks and storage systems to maintain supply reliability. Many governments are initiating modernization programmes and expansion of electrical networks, as well as accelerating the construction of transmission lines. Concurrently, large battery farms are being built in several regions to smooth peak loads and integrate variable renewable energy generation. Energy companies are also strengthening cyber security and protection of networks from extreme weather conditions, aiming to prevent outages in light of an increasing dependence of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Achievements and Growth Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues at an accelerated pace. The year 2025 marked a record in the commissioning of new renewable energy sources (primarily solar and wind). According to IEA data, in 2025, the share of renewables in global electricity generation for the first time matched that of coal (~30%). In 2026, green energy will continue to expand. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting records; according to BloombergNEF, in 2025, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of major economies are bolstering support for environmentally friendly technologies, viewing them as a driver for sustainable growth. The European Union has tightened climate goals, requiring expedited introduction of zero-carbon capacities and reforms of the emissions market. However, the rapid growth of the sector is accompanied by certain difficulties:
- Integration of Renewables into Energy Systems. The increasing share of solar and wind power presents new challenges for energy grids. The variable nature of renewable energy generation dictates the need for developing reserve capacities and energy storage systems for balancing—ranging from fast reserve gas installations to large battery parks and pumped-storage hydroelectric stations. Moreover, the electrical grid infrastructure is being modernised to transmit electricity from remote areas where renewables are located to consumers. The active development of these areas will help contain CO2 emissions growth even amidst rising electricity demand—provided that a sufficient volume of new low-carbon capacities is timely commissioned.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Amid the West's Phase-Out
- Despite global efforts to decarbonise, coal consumption remains at historically high levels. In 2025, global demand reached approximately 8.85 billion tonnes (+0.5% year-on-year), and similar levels are expected in 2026. The growth is driven by developing economies in Asia (China, India, etc.), where coal remains a key fuel for electricity generation and industry. Concurrently, western countries are rapidly decommissioning coal-fired power plants and banning new projects, aiming to completely phase out coal by the 2030s. This situation is ensuring high short-term profits for coal mining companies, but tightening climate policy and the withdrawal of investors are limiting the long-term prospects for the industry.
Outlook and Forecast
Overall, the global energy sector is entering 2026 without significant upheavals, although uncertainty remains. The oil market is likely to remain relatively balanced; the anticipated supply surplus is countered by geopolitical risks, preventing prices from significantly dropping or sharply rising. The main intrigue in the gas sector will be Europe’s ability to replenish depleted gas reserves by next winter through increased LNG imports and alternative supplies. Energy companies and investors are navigating between capitalising on sustained demand for traditional energy resources and investing in new technologies—from renewable generation to energy storage systems—to align with the long-term trends of the energy transition.
