Current News on the Oil, Gas, and Energy Market as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analytics, Refining, Gas, Power Generation, and Oil Products.
At the beginning of a new week, the global oil and gas markets are responding to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Against the backdrop of diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, oil prices have dropped to a one-month low, while the energy sector is experiencing notable shifts – from increased LNG exports to Europe to record profits in refining and compromised outcomes from the COP30 climate summit. Below is an overview of the key news and trends in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices decrease. Global oil prices ended last week at the lowest level in the past month. Brent crude fell to around $62.50 per barrel, and WTI to $58.10, marking a 3% decline from the previous week's levels. The pressure on prices is attributed to a U.S. initiative aimed at achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are pricing in the possibility of a long-standing conflict ending and easing some sanctions, which could bring additional Russian oil back to the market. Concurrently, risk appetite is being tempered by high interest rates in the U.S. and a strengthening dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their repeal. On Friday, November 21, new U.S. sanctions against the largest Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. These restrictions are aimed at further reducing Russia's oil export revenues. However, the U.S.-endorsed peace plan for Ukraine implies that should an agreement be reached, these sanctions could be lifted. The market is already adjusting to this possibility: the risk of disruptions in Russian supplies has slightly decreased, although experts warn that a genuine peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv remain sceptical about the terms of the plan, and analysts note that a final agreement may take a considerable amount of time.
Demand and supply balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards a potential oversupply. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently revised its forecast, expecting the global oil market to move towards a slight surplus by 2026. OPEC+ plans to maintain a cautious policy – the cartel previously signalled a pause in production increases in Q1 2026 to prevent excess oil amidst rising supplies from non-OPEC countries. Banking analysts (including Goldman Sachs) are also predicting a moderate decline in oil prices over the next year or two due to a preemptive increase in supply. An additional indicator of excessive supply is the record volume of oil stored on tankers at sea: traders estimate that due to sanctions, a significant portion of Russian crude is accumulating in floating storage while waiting for buyers. All these factors combined are putting downward pressure on oil prices.
U.S. Shale Production: A $60 Test
Low oil prices are starting to impact the U.S. shale sector. In the largest American oil basin – the Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico) – a decline in drilling activity is being observed. Companies are idling drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has swept through the industry: the cost of shale oil for a number of independent producers is approaching current market prices of around $60 per barrel, calling into question the profitability of new wells. Reports from the region indicate that dozens of rigs have been halted in recent weeks, and some oil service companies are optimising their workforce.
Nevertheless, experts note that the U.S. shale industry has weathered similar downturns before and has demonstrated resilience. Major players with robust financing are seizing the moment to acquire assets: amid declining production, merger and acquisition activity has intensified. The sector was recently stirred by news of ExxonMobil’s significant deal to acquire a shale producer (which strengthened the major’s position in the Permian Basin). Consolidation is expected to continue as smaller producers opt to sell or merge under price pressure. If prices remain at relatively low levels, a slowdown in U.S. production may help balance the market and lead to a new tightening of supply in the second half of 2026, thus supporting prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Margin Surge and Infrastructure Challenges
Record profits for refiners. Unlike crude oil, the oil products markets are showing increased tightness. In November, refining margins in many key markets reached multi-year highs. According to industry analysts, European refineries are making about $30–34 from each barrel of crude in net fuel sales profit – a level not seen since 2023. A similar situation is noted in the U.S. (the 3-2-1 crack spread index is nearing record levels) and in Asia. Several factors have played into refiners' hands:
- Capacity cuts: a series of planned and unplanned refinery outages worldwide have led to a reduction in the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. In the U.S. and Europe, some plants have closed in recent years, and in Nigeria and the Middle East, major new refineries (such as Dangote, Al-Zour) have temporarily cut output due to maintenance.
- Drone attacks and sanctions: drone strikes on oil refineries and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have reduced the export of oil products from the country. Simultaneously, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western countries) have constrained the availability of diesel fuel in the global market, particularly in Europe.
- High diesel demand: Europe is experiencing a structural diesel deficit – economic growth and colder weather are buoying demand, while domestic refining is not fully covering it. Import deliveries from Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S. are sometimes falling short, pushing diesel prices up.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this rally in refining margins, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite gloomy expectations at the beginning of the year, Q3 2025 proved extraordinarily successful for the downstream segment. For instance, French TotalEnergies reported a year-on-year 76% increase in profits from its refining business, thanks to the favourable conditions. Experts believe that high margins will persist at least until the end of the year, spurring refineries to increase capacity utilisation after the completion of autumn maintenance.
Pipeline incident in the U.S. Infrastructure issues are also impacting the oil products market. In November, a leak occurred on one of the largest product pipelines in the U.S. – the Olympic Pipeline system, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington State to neighbouring Oregon. The leak was detected on November 11 near the city of Everett (Washington), prompting the operator (BP) to halt flow. State authorities declared a state of emergency, as the pipeline's shutdown disrupted the supply of jet fuel to Seattle International Airport. By the end of the week, emergency crews had excavated over 30 meters of pipe in search of the damage, but the source of the leak could not be immediately identified. One of the two lines of the pipeline was partially restarted, but overall the system is not yet operating at full capacity. The incident highlights the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: local fuel supplies had to be replenished through road transport and backup supplies, and local prices for jet fuel and gasoline briefly spiked. The pipeline is expected to be fully operational only after repairs and inspections are completed.
Gas Market and Europe's Energy Security
The European gas market is entering the winter season relatively stable, but energy security concerns remain at the forefront. Thanks to active purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and consumption savings over the past months, underground gas storage in EU countries is nearing record levels at the start of winter. This mitigates the risks of a sharp price surge in case of cold weather. Meanwhile, European states continue to diversify their gas sources, reducing dependence on supplies from Russia:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The largest economy in the EU is expanding its LNG reception capabilities. A fifth floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) is set to launch in 2026 at the mouth of the Elbe River (Stade port). So far, LNG accounts for around 11% of all gas imports to Germany over the first three quarters of 2025. The construction of permanent terminals is progressing rapidly – Berlin aims to fully replace the pipeline gas lost from Russia during 2022-2023.
- Balkan gas pipeline backed by the U.S.: In Southeast Europe, a long-discussed alternative gas pipeline project is starting. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with U.S. assistance, has revived plans for a connecting pipe with Croatia – known as the "Southern Interconnector". Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on the island of Krk, allowing Bosnia to reduce dependence on Russian gas currently delivered via the "TurkStream" pipeline. American partners have expressed a willingness to be the leading investors in the project. Previously, internal political disagreements in BiH hindered the implementation, but now the project has received new support and momentum.
- Ukraine increases imports: Amidst the escalating conflict with Russia, Ukraine faces significant challenges in the gas sector. Due to infrastructure shelling in recent months, the country has lost up to half of its domestic gas production. To get through the winter, Kyiv is sharply increasing fuel purchases from neighbouring countries. The Trans-Balkan supply route has been reactivated in November – around 2.3 million cubic meters of gas per day are being imported from Greece (where there is an LNG terminal) via Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is consistently receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These measures are helping to offset the deficit that has arisen from the attacks and maintain energy supply for Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy security and policy. In several European countries, there has been increased attention to controlling critical energy infrastructure. For example, the Italian government has expressed concerns about the involvement of Chinese investors in the capital of companies owning national power grids and gas pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks must remain under reliable domestic control – measures are being discussed to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets. This step aligns with the broader EU trend of strengthening energy independence and protecting infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Price situation. Due to high reserves and diversification of sources, spot gas prices in Europe remain relatively moderate for the season. Regulators in certain countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, starting in December, the price cap for households will increase slightly – by just 0.2%, reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. Nonetheless, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments must balance between market prices and measures to support the populace.
Power Generation and Coal: Contradictory Trends
In global electricity generation, two opposing trends are evident: the growth of "green" energy sources and a simultaneous increase in coal usage to meet demand. This is particularly evident in China and several developing Asian countries:
Record electricity generation in China. Electricity demand in the People's Republic of China is soaring – October 2025 marked an all-time high in generation for that month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). Meanwhile, output at thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) increased by more than 7%, compensating for the seasonal decline in output from wind and solar stations. Despite efforts to develop renewable energy, around 70% of electricity in China is still generated from coal, thus, the rise in consumption inevitably leads to increased coal burning.
Coal deficit and rising prices. Paradoxically, while coal usage in China hits records, coal production in the country has slightly decreased. This is due to restrictions imposed by Beijing on mine operations (safety measures and curbing excess capacity). As a result, official data show that in October, coal output was 2.3% lower than a year earlier. The reduction in domestic supply has led to rising prices: the benchmark price for thermal coal at the largest port of Qinhuangdao has risen to 835 yuan per tonne (approximately $117), marking a 37% increase from the summer minimum. The deficit is also being addressed through imports – China is ramping up coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, maintaining high demand in the global market.
Global coal output record. According to the IEA, global coal production is set to reach a new record in 2025, reaching approximately 9.2 billion tonnes. The main contributions to this increase come from China and India, where economic growth continues to rely heavily on coal-based energy. International experts express concern: the persistently high level of coal burning complicates the achievement of climate goals. Nevertheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance between environmental commitments and the need for reliable energy supply.
Energy system under the impact of war. In Europe, targeted strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure remain a problem. According to the operator "Ukrenergo," as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers were without electricity, particularly in the eastern regions that had been hit by nighttime shelling. Repair crews are working around the clock, reconnecting backup schemes and restoring power lines, but each new damage complicates the peak load during the fall-winter season. Ukraine's electricity system is integrated with the European ENTSO-E, allowing for emergency electricity imports in case of shortage, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing equipment and funding to support the Ukrainian power grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy sector continues to make steady progress worldwide, showcasing new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan transitions to solar energy. The country is preparing for a significant milestone: according to government statements, by 2026, power generation from rooftop solar panels will exceed daytime consumption in several large industrial zones. This will be the first such occurrence in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuel. The installation of solar modules on factory and enterprise rooftops is subsidised by the government and attracts foreign investors. It is anticipated that excess daytime generation will be used to charge energy storage and feed into the grid, improving electricity supply during evening peak loads.
- New offshore wind energy project in Europe. The Ocean Winds consortium (a joint venture between Portuguese EDP and French Engie) won the rights to build a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (off the south-west coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, which will supply "green" electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. The project underscored the growing interest in floating turbines that can be installed at great depths, exploring new maritime areas. The UK and EU countries are actively conducting auctions for offshore wind farms, striving to achieve their targets for increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy balance.
- Investment in grid infrastructure. German conglomerate Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in constructing equipment production facilities for electrical grids by 2028. Projects will span several countries and aim to eliminate "bottlenecks" in power grid management, which is in dire need of modernization to integrate renewable sources. Amid the ongoing crisis in the wind energy division, Siemens Energy is betting on a more stable business – energy transmission and distribution. The expansion of transformer, switching equipment, and power electronics manufacturing capacity is supported by EU governments, as improving power grids is deemed critically important for the success of the energy transition.
- Corporations procure "green" energy. The trend of direct renewable energy supply contracts between energy companies and large businesses continues. For instance, French TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Google to supply electricity generated from new solar and wind power plants to Google data centres in Ohio (USA). The deal is structured for the long term and will help the IT giant approach its goal of using 100% renewable energy, while the energy company can ensure the sale of capacity from its renewable projects. Such corporate PPAs (power purchase agreements) are becoming a significant component of the market, stimulating the construction of new renewable energy facilities worldwide.
Corporate News and Investments in the FEC
Several significant events have taken place in the corporate segment of the fuel and energy complex, reflecting the industry's restructuring in response to new realities:
- ExxonMobil pauses hydrogen project. American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has taken a break from one of its most ambitious projects for producing "blue" hydrogen. A planned large hydrogen plant (presumably in Texas) has been postponed due to insufficient demand from potential consumers. According to Exxon CEO Darren Woods, customers are not ready to purchase large volumes of hydrogen at economically justified prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the transition of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is progressing slower than expected as many of these projects do not yield quick profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are reassessing their timetables for achieving emissions reduction targets, focusing more on profitable areas – oil and gas production – amid the current pricing environment.
- Mining giant targets copper. In the realm of commodity mega-mergers, a new potential consolidation process is brewing. Australian company BHP Group has made a renewed offer to acquire British Anglo American. Anglo recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to concentrate jointly on copper extraction – a metal highly sought after in the energy transition era (for electric vehicles, cables, and renewable energy). Now BHP, already a leader in copper, is seeking to establish an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American management is currently refraining from comments, and discussion details are not disclosed. If the deal goes through, it will reshape power dynamics in the mining sector and grant BHP control over strategic copper reserves in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- The U.S. invests $100 billion in critical resources. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented financing program aimed at ensuring sustainable supplies of critically important raw materials for the U.S. and its allies. This involves allocating up to $100 billion in investments for projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, as well as developing liquefied natural gas and nuclear energy components. The first package of deals has already been formed, including $4 billion in guarantees for American LNG export to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for the development of the major copper-gold deposit Reko Diq in Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with the U.S. administration’s policy of strengthening "energy dominance" and reducing dependence on China for supplies in high-tech and energy sectors. Given the congressional approval for the bank’s financing, active U.S. presence in raw materials projects worldwide is expected in the coming years.
- Hungary's nuclear project receives an exemption. In the context of sanctions policy, a notable development has arisen from Europe: the U.S. Treasury Department granted a special license allowing certain companies to process transactions concerning the construction of the new "Paks-2" nuclear power plant in Hungary. This project is being implemented with the participation of the Russian state corporation Rosatom, and previously, sanctions had caused uncertainty regarding its financing. Now an exception has been made, likely at Budapest’s request and to support the energy security of a NATO ally. The license pertains to transactions related to non-nuclear aspects of construction and illustrates a pragmatic approach – with the sanctions regime remaining stringent, specific relaxations are possible if they serve the interests of energy stability for European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: Compromise without Renouncing Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in the Brazilian city of Belém, with final agreements reflecting the complexities of international negotiations in the energy sphere. The outcome document of the summit was adopted with considerable difficulty and stands as a compromise between a group of developed nations advocating for more decisive measures and a bloc of fuel-exporting states and developing economies:
Financial support for vulnerable countries. One of the main achievements of COP30 is the promise to triple the volume of climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy nations are willing to increase assistance for climate adaptation projects – infrastructure protection, transitioning to renewable energy, combating desertification and flooding. This was a fundamental demand from Global South nations, which pointed to their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. Although the European Union initially criticised the draft agreement as "not ambitious enough," it ultimately did not block its adoption specifically to kick-start the mechanism for supporting the poorest countries. According to one EU negotiator, the agreement is "not perfect but will direct much-needed funding to those most vulnerable."
Disagreement on fossil fuels. The most contentious issue during negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. Efforts to include plans for a "gradual phase-out of fossil fuels" in the initial draft agreements were unsuccessful, as this language was absent from the final text. Countries part of the so-called "Arab Group," as well as several other oil and gas producers, categorically opposed any references to a direct reduction in fossil fuel use. They argued that for them, it is far more important to discuss carbon capture technologies and "clean" uses of oil and gas than to curtail production. As a result of the compromise decision, the topic of the energy transition is presented in broad terms, without quantitative commitments to reducing the share of oil and coal. Such concessions disappointed several Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, Panama openly called for stricter formulations) and environmental organizations, yet were deemed necessary for consensus.
Reaction and Outlook. The compromise agreement from COP30 received mixed reviews. On the one hand, it has managed to maintain the multilateral climate process and ensure the inflow of funds for adaptation and "green" technologies. On the other, experts labelled the absence of specifics regarding a phase-out of hydrocarbons as a missed opportunity to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a "roadmap" for a phased-out approach to coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, noting that dialogue continues and key decisions are yet to come. Meanwhile, the location of the next conference has already been decided: COP31 in 2026 will be held in Turkey. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to co-host the summit, which will take place on Turkish territory. The world will be closely watching to see if a bolder step toward decarbonizing the global economy can be achieved at the next meeting.
Prepared for investors and market specialists in the FEC. Stay tuned for updates to keep abreast of the latest developments in the oil, gas, and energy sectors worldwide.
