Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Wednesday, 31 December 2025: China's PMI, US data, Trading Regime on Global Exchanges, and Guidelines for Investors Amid Pre-New Year Lull
Wednesday, 31 December, marks a day of reduced liquidity in global markets: some venues are closed due to holidays, while others are operating on a shortened schedule. For investors from the CIS, this shift signifies a move away from intraday trading towards risk management and assessment of macroeconomic signals as the new year approaches. On such a day, even standard economic events can trigger disproportionate movements in individual instruments due to thin markets and wider spreads. The key focus includes China's PMI and US data, as well as the trading regime of Russian exchanges, where Moscow Exchange is closed, while trading continues on SPB Exchange.
Trading Regime: Global Markets and CIS Venues
- Europe: Some continental venues are closed; several markets may operate on a shortened day. For Euronext venues, 31 December is designated as a half trading day for several markets within the group.
- Asia: A significant portion of regional markets has entered holiday mode; liquidity is generally lower than the average levels typical for the end of the month.
- Russia: Moscow Exchange will not conduct trading on 31 December. For CIS investors requiring access to operations, the key venue remains SPB Exchange, where trading continues.
- USA: The stock market operates as usual, whereas the bond market closes earlier than standard hours.
A practical conclusion for investors: As the closure of European and American sessions approaches, volatility might "jump" on specific news; however, confirming the sustainability of any movement will be challenging due to low volumes. The priority should be discipline regarding limits, selecting instruments with high liquidity, and verifying the settlement and clearing schedule with brokers.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, indicators of business activity in China's services sector and the composite PMI for December will be released. For global markets, this serves as a quick marker of whether the momentum of domestic demand persists and how robustly the services sector is recovering. For commodity assets and emerging market currencies, the significance of China's PMI is traditionally high: strong values support expectations for demand for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak values raise caution and increase the risk premium.
- How to interpret the release: A level above 50 typically indicates expansion, while a level below 50 suggests contraction in activity.
- What to watch for internally: Components of new orders, employment, and prices (inflation signals in supply chains).
- Market reaction: In thin liquidity, sharp movements in commodity futures and currency pairs may occur, though trend confirmation may only come after the US market opens.
USA: Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK)
In the afternoon, focus will shift to US data — initial jobless claims. This figure is an important operational indicator of the labour market and the "temperature" of the economy. For investors, this is a part of the puzzle: the labour market influences consumption trajectories, corporate profits, and rate expectations.
- Positive scenario: A moderate level of claims without sharp spikes signals employment resilience.
- Negative scenario: A noticeable increase in claims may heighten defensive sentiment and demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar-denominated instruments, low-volatility sectors).
- Strategy: In the pre-New Year session, reactions may be disproportionate; when trading through SPB Exchange, it is advisable to predefine entry/exit levels and utilise limit orders.
USA: Chicago PMI (guideline 17:45 MSK)
Another US indicator is the Chicago PMI for December. This helps assess the state of production activity and business expectations in the industrial region. In conjunction with jobless claims, this indicator forms a "quick" macro set that market participants use to fine-tune expectations for early January.
- Volatility factor: If the release occurs in a thin market, movements in index futures and the dollar may be sharp but brief.
- Interpretation: An increase in the indicator strengthens the argument for stable business activity; a weak value raises the risk of a "soft cooling."
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for 31 December
From the perspective of corporate reports, the day is generally "empty" for major issuers: companies from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the largest Russian public companies are not concentrating releases on 31 December. The main publications of financial results are concentrated in the working weeks of January-February, when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, in the USA, reports from individual small-cap issuers are scheduled. While these are not systemic for the broader market, they may hold particular interest for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): focus on margin dynamics amid raw material prices, working capital, and inventory.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): noteworthy comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin).
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): key elements include cash flow, debt load, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): investors should monitor asset structure, financing sources, and any indications of moving towards sustainable income.
- 4Less Group (FLES): micro-cap with heightened liquidity risks; priority should be assessing corporate events and financial transparency.
For CIS investors, the practical recommendation is straightforward: consider such reports only if there is an understanding of the specifics of illiquid papers and a pre-established risk limit. In pre-New Year trading, the risk of "slippage" and quoting gaps is significantly higher.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
Under conditions of shortened trading at some venues, the market often shifts focus to "big" macro narratives. Consequently, China's PMI and US data set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. For investor portfolios, three practical observations are important:
- Currencies: In the event of surprises in US data, the dollar may react the fastest, especially against currencies with low liquidity during the holidays.
- Rates: The early closure of the bond market in the USA amplifies the effects of thin liquidity— movements may be "jumpy."
- Commodities: Weaker-than-expected China's PMI often pressures cyclical assets, while stronger-than-expected PMI supports risk appetite and demand for commodity stories.
Risk Management in Pre-New Year Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task of the day becomes protection against inefficient execution and "random" volatility. In pre-New Year trading, it is rational to:
- use limit orders instead of market orders;
- reduce position sizes in instruments with weak order depth;
- avoid "momentum" trades immediately after the release of indicators—wait for quote stabilisation;
- account for the specifics of settlements and clearing, especially when operating through SPB Exchange and in foreign instruments;
- maintain focus on portfolio goals: the end of the year is not the best time to aggressively increase risk without a clear idea.
What to Pay Attention to as an Investor
31 December is a day when global markets largely follow a holiday schedule, meaning that the cost of errors increases. Investors' attention remains on economic events— China's PMI in the morning and a block of US data in the afternoon. On the side of corporate reports, significant releases from major companies are not anticipated; activity is focused on select small issuers in the USA, where liquidity risk and volatility are above average.
The practical focus for CIS investors: (1) predefined reaction scenarios to macro data, (2) use conservative execution and limit orders, (3) avoid overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, (4) prepare a watchlist for January when liquidity returns, and the full agenda of the new year begins.
