Latest news from the oil, gas, and energy sectors for Monday, 12 January 2026: oil, gas, electricity, sanctions, geopolitics, and key global energy projects. Analytical overview for investors and market participants.
The current events in the global fuel and energy sector as of 12 January 2026 capture the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of oversupply and geopolitical shifts. The new year commenced with an unprecedented move by the United States concerning Venezuela—the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro—which may reshape oil supply routes. However, demand for energy resources remains sluggish, heightening concerns over market saturation.
The world oil market continues to witness declining prices under the weight of oversupply: total production has surpassed demand, and an excess of up to 3 million barrels per day is expected in the early months of 2026. Brent prices have stabilised around $60 per barrel following the holidays, about 15% lower than levels at the beginning of last year, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and geopolitical risks. The European gas market is confidently navigating the winter season: EU gas storage facilities are over 60% full, while mild weather in December and record supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are keeping prices at relatively low levels (around €28–30 per MWh, or $9–10 per MMBtu). Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to accelerate—with many countries reporting new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) in 2025, although the reliability of power systems still requires support from traditional resources.
In Russia, following last year's spike in fuel prices, authorities continue to manually regulate the domestic fuel market, maintaining extended export restrictions and other measures to normalise the situation. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and the Venezuelan Factor Pressuring Prices
World oil prices at the beginning of 2026 remain under downward pressure from fundamental factors. After several months of gradual decline, prices have accelerated their fall amid expectations of abundant supply. Total global oil production significantly rose last year, with OPEC countries increasing exports, while non-OPEC nations showed even greater growth. As a result, the market entered 2026 with a surplus—estimates suggest a potential excess of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of the year amid a slowdown in demand growth (around +1% per year compared to the usual ~1.5%). Against this backdrop, the benchmark Brent blend has dipped to around $60 per barrel, with American WTI down to approximately $57, representing a 15–20% decline from year-ago levels.
The situation surrounding Venezuela adds further pressure to the market. The unexpected arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the US in early January has opened up the prospect of easing the American oil embargo against Caracas. Washington has signalled its readiness to engage companies in rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector and announced a deal to supply up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US, effectively redirecting some exports previously destined for China. These developments have intensified expectations of increased global supply and prompted additional price declines. Additionally, the oversupply of oil has led OPEC+ countries to contemplate further steps: despite a recent agreement to maintain current production quotas, key alliance participants signal a willingness to resume cuts if prices drop below comfortable levels. So far, no new official agreements have been announced—the market is closely monitoring the rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and its partners concerning potential price stabilisation.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe Keeping Prices in Check
On the gas market, the situation in Europe remains the focal point, with the region experiencing winter much more calmly than during the peak energy crisis of 2022–2023. EU member states began 2026 with underground gas storage facilities filled to over 60%, significantly above historical averages for mid-winter. Mild weather in December and record imports of LNG have reduced withdrawals from storage. By the start of January, gas prices in Europe are stabilised at relatively low levels: the Dutch TTF index trades around €28–30 per MWh (approximately $9–10 per MMBtu). Although prices have slightly risen in recent weeks due to colder weather and seasonal demand increases, they remain several times lower than the peak levels of the 2022–2023 crisis.
European consumers have offset the near-total cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia through unprecedented increases in LNG purchases. By the end of 2025, Europe’s LNG imports rose approximately 25% compared to 2024, reaching a record ~127 million tonnes—most of the additional volumes coming from the US, Qatar, and African countries. The commissioning of new floating terminals for LNG reception in Germany and other EU member states has expanded capacity and enhanced the region's energy security. Forecasts suggest that the European Union will conclude the current heating season with substantial reserves (approximately 35–40% of storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the gas market's stability. In the Asian market, LNG prices remain slightly higher than in Europe—the Asian JKM index exceeds $10 per MMBtu—though the global gas market is in a state of relative equilibrium, owing to increased supply and moderate demand.
Geopolitics: Venezuela under US Control, OPEC+ Disagreements, and New Sanction Risks
Geopolitical factors are once again exerting significant influence on the energy sector. Two major events have come to the forefront. Firstly, Venezuela is undergoing a severe political crisis: the US announced on 3 January the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, stating intentions to take control of the country until a transitional government is formed. President Donald Trump declared that American oil companies would be engaged in rebuilding Venezuela's deteriorating oil infrastructure and increasing production. Investors perceive these steps with caution: although Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves in the world, its current production is minimal, and even with an influx of investment, growth in supply will take years. Secondly, within OPEC+, disagreements have surfaced: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have entered into a sharp conflict (against the backdrop of events in Yemen), leading to the most significant schism among allies in decades. Nonetheless, the January meeting of eight key OPEC+ countries passed without drama—participants unanimously supported maintaining current production quotas, demonstrating commitment to a common strategy for market stability.
China, the primary recipient of Venezuelan oil, sharply condemned the US actions, labelling them as "gross interference" in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing has conveyed its intention to protect its energy interests: it is likely that China will escalate purchases of oil from Russia and Iran or take other steps to compensate for the potential loss of Venezuelan volumes. This new escalation between leading powers enhances geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources may intensify, and political maneuverings will inject additional volatility into prices.
Meanwhile, the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia in the energy sector continues without significant changes. At the end of 2025, Moscow extended the ban on Russian oil and petroleum product supplies to buyers adhering to the G7/EU price cap until 30 June 2026, reaffirming its position of non-recognition of the imposed restrictions. European sanctions against the Russian energy sector remain in effect, and the routes for exporting Russian energy resources have been entirely shifted to markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There is no substantial easing of sanctions or breakthrough in dialogue between Russia and Western nations— the global market must operate under a new paradigm, divided by sanction barriers.
At the same time, new radical pressure measures are being discussed in Washington: a bill proposing a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil. Such measures aim to further diminish Moscow’s oil revenues while effectively punishing key importers of its crude (primarily India and China), which risks exacerbating the sanctions confrontation.
Additionally, uncertainty is amplified by the situation in Iran. Since late last year, mass anti-government protests have persisted there—a major challenge for the regime in recent years. The Trump administration has threatened a stern response if Iranian authorities use force against demonstrators; in response, Tehran's leadership has shown defiance, restricting communications with the outside world. There is currently no direct impact from these events on Iranian oil export volumes, yet the risk of escalation in the region increases market nerves—participants are factoring in the likelihood of interruptions should the crisis deepen.
Asia: India and China Balancing Import Needs and Domestic Production
- India: Facing pressure from the West over cooperation with Russia (the US doubled tariffs on Indian exports starting August 2025, raising them to 50%), New Delhi firmly asserts that it has no intention of reducing imports of Russian oil and gas to the detriment of its energy security. Russian suppliers are compelled to offer significant discounts on Urals oil (around $5 off Brent prices), enabling India to continually purchase crude at favourable rates and even increase imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet rising domestic demand. Concurrently, the country is striving to reduce its long-term reliance on imports: in 2025, a national programme for the exploration of deepwater oil and gas fields commenced, with the state company ONGC beginning drilling in the Andaman Sea. By the end of the year, the discovery of the first natural gas field in this region was announced, providing hope for the gradual strengthening of India's resource base. Furthermore, despite external pressure, India and Russia have expanded transactions in national currencies and joint projects in the oil and gas sector in 2025, demonstrating commitment to partnership.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also ramping up energy resource purchases while simultaneously increasing its domestic production. Beijing has not joined western sanctions and has seized the opportunity to import oil and LNG from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at reduced prices, remaining the leading buyer of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2024, the country imported about 212.8 million tonnes of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year. In 2025, imports continued to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace due to the high base. Concurrently, the Chinese authorities are stimulating the growth of domestic oil and gas production: from January to November 2025, national companies extracted approximately 1.5% more oil than in the same period the previous year, and natural gas production increased by almost 6%. However, these increments only partially cover the growth in consumption—China's economy still relies on imports for about 70% of its oil needs and nearly 40% of gas. The government is investing significant resources in developing fields and technologies to enhance oil recovery, but given the substantial scale of demand, China's dependence on external supplies will remain significant. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining import assurances with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in RES While Maintaining the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is noticeably accelerating. In 2025, numerous countries set new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (solar, wind, etc.). Europe produced more electricity from solar and wind power than from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time in a year, solidifying the trend towards a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. In the US, the share of renewable energy also reached a historic high—exceeding 30% of generation, while the combined output from wind and solar surpassed production from coal plants for the first time. China, remaining the global leader in installed RES capacities, annually introduces dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind farms, continually setting records for "green" generation.
According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3.3 trillion, with more than half of that amount directed towards RES projects, grid modernisation, and energy storage systems. In 2026, investments in clean energy may grow even further amid government support programmes. For instance, the US plans to commission approximately 35 GW of new solar power plants over the year—a record figure, comprising nearly half of all anticipated new generating capacities. Analysts forecast that by 2026–2027, renewable energy sources may emerge as the leading providers of electricity worldwide, finally surpassing coal.
Still, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The rising share of solar and wind power poses challenges for balancing the grid during hours when RES do not produce enough capacity. Gas and even coal-fired power plants are still employed to cover peak demand and reserve capacity. For example, during the past winter, in certain regions of Europe, it was occasionally necessary to boost generation from coal plants during periods of still cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Governments across many countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures are designed to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Thus, while the energy transition reaches new heights, it requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation is breaking records, but conventional power plants remain critically important for uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: High Demand Sustains Market Stability
Despite the accelerated decarbonisation, the global coal market continues to retain significant consumption volumes and remains an integral part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains robust, particularly in Asia-Pacific countries, where economic growth and electricity needs sustain intensive usage of this fuel. China—the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—in 2025 burned coal at nearly record levels. Coal output from Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tonnes annually, meeting the lion's share of domestic needs, yet it barely suffices during peak load periods (e.g., scorching summers with widespread air conditioner use). India, boasting vast coal reserves, is also increasing its usage: more than 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside economic growth. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing demands of their populations and industries.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to sustainably high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased their production and export of thermal coal in recent years, enabling prices to remain relatively stable. After price peaks in 2022, thermal coal prices have declined to more normal levels and are now oscillating in a narrow range. For example, the price of thermal coal at the European ARA hub is currently around $100 per tonne, compared to over $300 two years ago. Overall, the balance of supply and demand appears well-matched: consumers receive guaranteed fuel, while producers enjoy stable sales at profitable prices. Although many countries are announcing plans to phase out coal to meet climate goals, in the coming 5–10 years, this energy resource will remain indispensable for powering a significant part of the population. Experts believe that in the coming decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will maintain a substantial role despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is now experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to function as one of the pillars of global energy.
Russian Refining Market: State Regulation Stabilises Fuel Prices
Emergency measures implemented to normalise prices following last year's fuel crisis are still in effect in the Russian fuel market.
- **Extension of the fuel export ban:** The complete ban on the export of petrol and diesel fuel, first imposed in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and remains in force (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This measure directs additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tonnes of petrol and diesel monthly—that were previously earmarked for export to the domestic market.
- **Partial resumption of supplies for large refineries:** As the situation stabilises, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, some large oil refineries have been authorised to carry out limited fuel exports under governmental oversight. However, the embargo on exports still remains in place for independent traders, oil depots, and smaller refineries, preventing the leakage of the scarce resource abroad.
- **Control of domestic distribution:** The government has enhanced oversight of the movement of petroleum products within the domestic market. Oil companies are required to first meet the needs of domestic consumers and avoid the practice of stock exchange resales that had previously heated prices. Relevant authorities (MinEnergy, FAS in conjunction with the St. Petersburg exchange) are developing long-term measures—such as a system of direct contracts between refineries and petrol station networks, bypassing exchange platforms—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- **Subsidies and dampers:** The state continues to provide financial support to the sector. Budgetary subsidies and the reverse excise mechanism ("damper") continue to compensate refiners for some of their lost export revenue. This incentivises refineries to direct a larger volume of petrol and diesel to the domestic market without incurring losses due to lower domestic prices.
The combination of these steps has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange prices in the summer of 2025, retail prices at petrol stations increased by only around 5% over the year (within inflation limits). Filling stations are adequately supplied with fuel, and the implemented measures are gradually cooling the wholesale market.
The government states that it will continue to act preemptively: if necessary, the restrictions on the export of petroleum products will be extended into 2026, and in the event of local disruptions, resources from state reserves will be rapidly directed to problematic regions. The situation is being monitored at the highest level—authorities are ready to implement new mechanisms to ensure the country’s stable fuel supply and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers. At the same time, representatives of MinEnergy admit that should stability be maintained, restrictions may be gradually lifted in the second half of 2026. However, recent months' experience has shown that the state will intervene swiftly when necessary to protect the domestic market.
