Global Steel Production Analysis for October 2025 According to WSA with a Focus on Russia: Decline in China, Growth in the USA and the Impact of Current Trends on Investments in the Metallurgical Sector.
According to the World Steel Association, global steel production in October 2025 reached 143.3 million tonnes, representing a 5.9% decrease compared to October 2024. Year-to-date (January-October), output has fallen by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Production declines have been observed in Asia and Europe, while North America is showing growth.
- China: 72.0 million tonnes (-12.1% year-on-year).
- India: 13.6 million tonnes (+5.9% year-on-year).
- USA: 7.0 million tonnes (+9.4% year-on-year).
- Japan: 6.9 million tonnes (-1.0% year-on-year).
- South Korea: 5.1 million tonnes (-5.8% year-on-year).
- Russia: 5.3 million tonnes (-6.2% year-on-year).
- Germany: 3.1 million tonnes (-3.0% year-on-year).
- Iran: 3.3 million tonnes (+12.0% year-on-year).
The data underlines a varied dynamic: the largest producer, China, is experiencing a sharp decline, while the USA and Iran are exhibiting double-digit growth. India continues to grow, while the European market, led by Germany, remains negative.
The WSA statistics cover 70 countries, accounting for approximately 98% of global steel production.
The average capacity utilisation rate in the steel industry remains low, reflecting an oversupply amid weak demand. The situation is exacerbated by a general slowdown in the global economy and investment demand.
China: Continuing Production Decline
China's steel production in October totalled 72.0 million tonnes, a 12.1% decrease compared to the previous year. This marks the most significant monthly decline in recent years. The reasons include weak demand for construction materials, stricter environmental regulations, and high production costs; many steel mills are operating at extremely low profitability. Despite government stimulus measures, steel output in China has decreased by approximately 3.9% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025.
USA: Accelerated Production Growth
The United States reached 7.0 million tonnes of steel production in October, which is 9.4% higher than the previous year. The acceleration is attributed to a revival in domestic demand and multi-billion dollar investments in infrastructure development. American steelmakers also report improved demand from the construction and automotive sectors. Consequently, steel output in the USA has increased by around 3% over the first 10 months of 2025.
India and Other Asian Markets: Slowing Growth Rates
India, the second-largest steel producer globally, continues to expand output, albeit at moderate rates. In October, production reached 13.6 million tonnes, which is 5.9% higher than the previous year; however, this reflects a slowdown compared to previous months. Weak domestic demand and restrictive export measures are hindering the expansion of India's steel industry. Other Asian countries exhibit an uneven picture: Japan's steel production has decreased by 1.0%, while South Korea's has decreased by 5.8%. Overall, steel production in Asia and Oceania fell by more than 8% in October.
European Sector: Decline in Germany and Stagnation
The European steel market is under pressure, with production in EU countries decreasing by approximately 3.5% in October. Germany, Europe's largest producer, produced 3.1 million tonnes (-3.0% year-on-year). The German steel industry continues to suffer from weak domestic demand and falling export orders. Decreases are also noted in other industrial countries in the region, where overall production levels remain low.
Middle East: Growth Driven by Iran
Amid global stagnation, Iran is demonstrating rapid growth: its production in October reached 3.3 million tonnes, which is 12.0% higher than last year. This is linked to a revival in domestic demand and the expansion of capacities following the easing of international sanctions. Increased production in Iran and neighbouring countries is supporting aggregate output levels, despite decreases reported in some other nations in the region.
Russia: Steady Production Decline
In Russia, 5.3 million tonnes of steel were produced in October, a decrease of 6.2% compared to October 2024. The rate of decline has accelerated compared to September (-3.8%). Under the pressure of Western sanctions and decreasing external demand, which restrict access to traditional markets, Russian steelmakers continue to cut production and exports. Stocks of major steel companies are attempting consolidation after declines; however, risks remain high.
Conclusions for Investors
WSA data indicates significant changes within the industry: the decline in China is restraining the global market, while production growth in the USA creates a favourable environment for American producers. These trends are shaping new opportunities and risks. It is crucial for investors to consider regional diversification of investments and the high volatility of the steel sector.
- Considering the uncertainty in the Chinese market is essential: sharp declines in production may stimulate price fluctuations in commodity and equity markets.
- Increased output volumes in the USA make American producers more attractive for investment in the steel sector.
- European and Russian steelmakers continue to face constraining factors, keeping their stocks in a zone of heightened uncertainty.
- Diversifying an investment portfolio across regions and companies in the metallurgical sector can help balance risks and capitalise on local growth trends.
- An oversupply in the steel market adds further downward pressure on commodity prices (e.g. iron ore) and facilitates inventory accumulation, which needs to be factored into strategic planning.
