Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 1st January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Oil Products. A Global Overview for Investors and Market Participants in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
Global Oil Market
The price of Brent crude oil at the end of December 2025 remained around $60–64 per barrel, experiencing slight dips following a brief surge leading up to the New Year. Overall, experts note that global oil supply significantly exceeds demand: new supplies from the USA, Brazil, Canada, and other countries are increasing faster than consumption, putting downward pressure on prices. It is expected that OPEC+ will maintain current quotas without increasing production at their meeting on 4th January to mitigate the excess supply growth.
- Supply: Major producers are ramping up production, leading to an oversupply of oil in the market.
- Political Risks: US actions regarding Venezuelan oil and attacks on tankers are increasing risk premiums in prices.
- OPEC+: At the January meeting, OPEC+ countries are expected to maintain a pause on increasing production, curbing further export growth.
- Demand: Global demand remains moderate amid economic uncertainty. Increases in consumption within the petrochemical and aviation sectors only partially offset declines in other areas.
Thus, despite fundamental excessive oil inventories, current prices are supported by an unfavourable geopolitical climate. With global oil storage close to record-high levels and supply situations remaining volatile, no significant price drops are anticipated.
Global Gas Market
Natural gas on the global market is showing mixed dynamics: European prices continue to decrease thanks to record LNG imports from the USA, while Asian demand remains subdued due to high fuel costs. Gas storage in Europe exceeds 85%, creating a 'safety cushion' ahead of the winter season. In the USA, wholesale gas prices (Henry Hub) hover around $4 per MMBtu, showing a moderate seasonal increase in the colder months.
- Europe: Generating companies are actively purchasing LNG, with over half of Europe's import volumes supplied by America, partially compensating for reduced Russian gas deliveries. The excess inflow of fuel is leading to falling prices and a convergence of European prices with Asian prices.
- Asia: LNG imports are decreasing due to high prices and moderate economic demand. China, the largest consumer, is increasing its domestic gas production and pipeline imports from Russia and Central Asia, reducing dependence on expensive LNG.
- Local Trends: Compared to the beginning of the year, European gas prices have fallen by approximately 45%, despite experiencing colder weather. Gas markets are becoming increasingly integrated due to the continual flow of LNG from the USA.
The growth of LNG exports from the USA remains a key factor: record supply is displacing more expensive imports and stabilising gas prices in Europe and Asia, making gas markets interconnected and less susceptible to seasonal shocks.
Fuel Markets and Oil Products
The situation in oil product markets is characterised by a cautiously bullish sentiment. Due to global maintenance campaigns at refineries and drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, the supply of diesel and gasoline is experiencing constraints, which is supporting high margins. Global refineries are operating at nearly maximum capacity; many companies plan to increase processing to take advantage of favourable price discrepancies between crude hydrocarbons and products.
- Market Demand: Daily consumption of gasoline and diesel remains stable, but there are fuel shortages at some gas stations in certain regions.
- Reforming: The autumn-winter maintenance season has affected key refineries in Europe, the USA, and China, supporting high prices for oil products despite the surplus of crude oil.
- Refinery Margins: Diesel spreads have surged to four-year highs amid fierce competition for limited supplies and strong demand for transport and industrial fuels.
- Russia: The Russian government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline and diesel exports until the end of February 2026 to curb rising prices in the domestic market and eliminate local fuel shortages.
Thus, fuel markets remain volatile: rising refining capacities may smooth price peaks, but export restrictions and local logistical disruptions will maintain tension. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring news from refineries and fuel inventory reports, as these factors will determine upcoming trends in the oil product sector.
Electricity and Renewable Sources
The global electricity sector continues its transition to low-carbon technologies. By the end of 2025, the share of generation from renewable sources (RES) has set new records: in many countries, solar panels and wind turbines have produced maximum energy output for the year. Analysts note that global capacity for new RES installations has significantly increased compared to the previous five years, and energy storage systems (ESS) are being implemented for network stability. The outcomes of the COP30 climate summit reinforce the commitments of the global community to increase 'clean' generation.
- Growth of Solar Energy: Asian and Middle Eastern countries have constructed tens of gigawatts of new solar parks, while Europe has streamlined the approval processes for such projects.
- Wind Generation: In Europe and China, average annual wind output has increased: in some regions (e.g., Northern Europe), wind power plants have provided record amounts of electricity.
- Energy Storage: Investments in large battery systems are rapidly increasing, allowing fluctuations in wind and solar generation to be smoothed out and reducing dependence on fossil reserves during peak hours.
- Hybrid Energy: To maintain the balance of renewable generation, countries are building new nuclear power plants and modernising existing reactors, considering nuclear energy a key element of a sustainable transition.
Energy companies are expanding their portfolios of RES projects: many traditional oil and gas giants have announced significant investments in wind and solar power plants, as well as hydrogen projects, reflecting a long-term shift in industry priorities. Experts emphasise that for a successful transition, there must be active upgrades of electrical grids and infrastructure development; otherwise, the rapid growth of 'clean' generation could be constrained by technical barriers.
Coal Sector
Coal markets are exhibiting mixed dynamics. In developed countries, demand for coal continues to decline due to accelerated decarbonisation and the replacement of coal-fired power plants with gas and renewable sources. However, in Asia, particularly in India and certain Southeast Asian countries, coal consumption remains high due to the need to ensure base load. Analysts expect that global coal consumption will stabilise or slightly decline following record growth in 2025.
- Developed Markets: In Europe and the USA, many coal-fired power plants have been decommissioned or converted to gas, while the export of American coal is diminishing.
- Asia and the Middle East: Rapid industrial growth in China, India, and other countries maintains high demand for coal, despite efforts to transition to alternative sources.
- Prices and Trade: After rising in the first half of 2025, coal prices stabilised at moderate levels. Chinese coal purchases from abroad remain a significant factor for Australia and Indonesia.
Thus, the coal sector is undergoing a phase of redistribution. While coal maintains its role as a backup source during peak demand periods, investment trends are gradually shifting towards 'clean' technologies, reflecting the prospects of long-term energy transformation.
Market Outlook and Forecasts
Most analysts expect that oil prices will remain at moderately low levels in the first quarter of 2026. Expert estimates suggest that the average cost of Brent at the beginning of the year will be around $55 per barrel, despite possible temporary fluctuations. The price of American gas (Henry Hub) could rise to approximately $4.30 per MMBtu during the winter of 2025/26, but then return to around $4 as demand stabilises. Electricity consumption is expected to continue growing by 1–2% annually in developed countries, supported by an increase in the share of RES. Global coal consumption is projected to be lower by 2026 compared to the previous year.
- Oil: An oversupply is expected to persist at least until summer 2026, which will continue to suppress prices unless OPEC+ returns to cutting quotas.
- Gas: Further increases in LNG exports from the USA will keep prices low in Asia and Europe, although a winter demand peak may temporarily elevate quotes.
- Electricity: An increase in RES generation will gradually reduce dependence on fossil sources. Energy companies continue to invest in expanding 'clean' generation and modernising grids.
- Investments: Fuel and energy companies plan to diversify assets: a growth in investments in renewable projects, hydrogen initiatives, and the development of new fields is anticipated.
Overall, the energy markets are entering 2026 with moderate optimism: the demand-supply balance is currently sustaining relative price stability. However, any significant changes in geopolitical conditions or economic activity could swiftly alter the direction of trends. Investors continue to closely monitor industry news and reports on global energy reserves, which will be key guiding factors in the coming months.
The Open Oil Market team wishes all readers a Happy New Year 2026 and success in their ventures on the fuel and energy markets!
