News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector — Monday, January 5, 2026: Oil, Gas, and Global Trends in the Fuel and Energy Complex

Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, 5 January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Geopolitics, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market

The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on 5 January 2026 attract attention due to a combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing market stability. The focus is primarily on the implications of the severe deterioration of the situation in Venezuela following a US military operation that led to a change in the country's leadership. This event has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, although the OPEC+ group maintains its existing production strategy without increasing quotas. This means that global oil supply remains excessive, and until recently, Brent prices hovered around $60 per barrel (nearly 20% lower than a year earlier, representing the most significant decline since 2020). The European gas market demonstrates relative resilience: even amid winter, gas reserves in EU storage remain high, and record LNG imports ensure moderate gas prices. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – by the end of 2025, many countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources, with investments in clean energy on the rise. However, geopolitical factors continue to introduce volatility: the sanctions-related confrontation over energy exports is not easing, and new conflicts (such as in South America) can suddenly shift market dynamics. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electric power, and raw materials sectors for this date.

Oil Market: OPEC+ Maintains Course, Geopolitics Amplifies Volatility

OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting of 2026, key countries within the OPEC+ alliance decided to maintain current oil production levels, reaffirming the previously announced pause in quota increases for Q1. In 2025, participants in the agreement collectively increased production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (around 3% of global demand), but sharp price declines in the autumn necessitated a cautious approach. Maintaining these restrictions is intended to avert further price collapses – although there is currently limited potential for price increases, given that the global market is well-supplied with oil.
Supply Surplus: Industry analysts estimate that in 2026, global oil supply may exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day. High production levels in OPEC+ countries, along with record output from fields in the US, Brazil, and Canada, have led to significant stock accumulations. Oil is accumulating both in onshore storage and in tankers, which are transporting record volumes of crude – all indicating market oversaturation. Consequently, Brent and WTI prices settled in a narrow range around ~$60 per barrel at the end of the previous year.
Demand Factors: The global economy is showing moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected in 2026, mainly driven by countries in Asia and the Middle East, where industry and transportation continue to expand. However, the slowing economy in Europe and the tight monetary policy in the US are constraining fuel demand growth. China plays a critical role: it took advantage of low prices in 2025 and actively increased its strategic oil reserves, acting as a kind of "buffer" for the market. However, in the new year, China's capacity to further fill its tanks is limited, meaning its import policies will be a decisive factor in the balance of the oil market.
Geopolitics and Prices: Geopolitical events remain a key uncertainty for the oil market. The prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine remain murky, meaning that sanctions against Russian oil exports are still in place and will continue to impact trade. The new crisis in South America – the US's military intervention against the Venezuelan government – serves as a reminder that political factors can suddenly tighten supply. Against this backdrop, investors are pricing an increased "risk premium" into oil prices. In the early days of 2026, Brent prices began to gradually rise from ~$60. Analysts do not rule out a short-term price increase to $65–70 per barrel if the crisis in Venezuela persists or escalates. However, the overall consensus for the year suggests continued oil surplus, which will restrain price growth in the medium term.

Gas Market: Stable Supply and Price Comfort

European Reserves: EU countries entered 2026 with high natural gas reserves. By early January, Europe's underground storage facilities were over 60% full, slightly below record levels from a year ago. A mild start to winter and energy-saving measures have resulted in moderate gas withdrawals from storage, ensuring a solid buffer for the remaining cold months. These factors calm the market: wholesale gas prices are held in the range of ~$9–10 per million BTU (about €28–30 per MWh according to the TTF index)—significantly lower than the peaks seen during the 2022 crisis.
The Role of LNG: To compensate for the sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe had fallen by over 40%), European countries significantly increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, LNG imports into the EU rose by approximately 25%, mainly due to supplies from the US and Qatar, as well as the commencement of new regasification terminals. The stable inflow of LNG has helped mitigate the effects of reduced Russian pipeline gas and diversify sources, enhancing Europe's energy security.
The Asian Factor: The balance in the global gas market is also dependent on demand from Asia. In 2025, China and India increased gas imports to support their industries and power sectors. However, trade tensions introduced adjustments: for example, Beijing reduced purchases of American LNG by imposing additional tariffs and redirected its purchasing efforts towards other suppliers. Should Asian economies accelerate growth in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes may intensify, creating upward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, the situation remains balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect continued relative stability in the global gas market.
EU Strategy: The European Union aims to consolidate progress in reducing dependence on Russian gas and phasing out reliance on a single supplier. Brussels has set an official target to completely halt gas imports from Russia by 2028. Plans for further expansion of LNG infrastructure (new terminals, tanker fleet), development of alternative pipeline routes, and growth in domestic production and biogas generation are underway. Concurrently, discussions within the EU are ongoing regarding extending the filling requirements for gas storage in the coming years (minimum of 90% capacity by 1 October each year). These measures aim to provide a buffer in case of unseasonably cold winters and to reduce market volatility in the future.

International Politics: Escalating Conflicts and Sanction Risks

The Crisis in Venezuela: The year commenced with an unprecedented event: the US conducted a military operation against the Venezuelan government. As a result, special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro, who has been charged with drug trafficking and corruption in the US. Washington stated that Maduro has been removed from office, and temporary governance will transition to forces backed by the US. Simultaneously, US authorities tightened oil sanctions: since December, there has been an effective maritime blockade of Venezuela, and the US Navy intercepted several tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. These steps have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela: estimates indicate that in December, they fell to around 0.5 million barrels per day (down from approximately 1 million barrels per day on average in the autumn). Production within the country continues for now, but the political crisis creates high uncertainty for future supplies. Markets are reacting with rising prices and reconfiguring routes: although Venezuela's share of global exports is small, the US's strict actions signal risks of violating sanction regimes to all importers.
Russian Energy Resources: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding potential easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas has not yielded results thus far. The US and EU have extended existing sanctions and price ceilings, tying their removal to progress in resolving the situation in Ukraine. Furthermore, the US administration indicates its willingness to introduce new measures: discussions are underway regarding additional sanctions against companies from China and India that assist in transporting or purchasing Russian oil in circumvention of established limits. These signals contribute to market uncertainty: for example, among the tanker sector, freight and insurance costs for crude of dubious origin are rising. Despite the sanctions, Russian oil and petroleum product exports remain relatively high, thanks to a pivot towards Asia; however, trade occurs with significant discounts and logistical costs.
Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to impact global energy markets. Tensions persist in the Black Sea region: at the end of December, strikes on port infrastructure were reported amid the ongoing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. While this has not yet led to significant interruptions in oil or grain exports via maritime corridors, the risk to trading routes remains elevated. In the Middle East, the situation in Yemen has intensified: disagreements between key OPEC participants, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have manifested through conflicts involving their allies in Yemeni territory. While these tensions have not yet hindered cooperation within OPEC+, analysts do not rule out that if disagreements escalate, the alliance's unity could be threatened. An additional risk factor has been the recent statements from the US regarding Iran: amid ongoing protests in Iran, Washington has threatened strikes against the country, which could theoretically jeopardise oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Collectively, geopolitical instability is establishing a continual risk premium in the market and prompting market participants to develop contingency plans for potential supply disruptions.

Asia: India's and China's Strategy in the Face of Energy Challenges

India's Import Policy: Faced with tightening sanctions and geopolitical pressure, India finds itself navigating between the expectations of Western partners and its own energy needs. New Delhi has not formally joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal on favorable terms. Russian supplies accounted for over 20% of India's oil imports in 2025, and the country considers it impossible to abruptly abandon them. However, at the end of 2025, Indian refineries slightly reduced their crude oil purchases from Russia due to banking and logistical constraints: traders report that in December, supplies of Russian oil to India declined to around 1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest level in the past two years (compared to a record ~1.8 million barrels per day the previous month). To avoid shortages, India's largest refining corporation, Indian Oil, activated options for additional volumes of oil supply from Colombia and is also negotiating with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Meanwhile, India is negotiating special terms for itself: Russian companies are offering Indian buyers Urals crude at a discount of ~$4–5 to Brent prices, making these barrels competitive even when considering the risks associated with sanctions. In the long term, India is striving to increase its domestic oil production: the state company ONGC is developing deep-water fields in the Andaman Sea, and early drilling results are promising. Nevertheless, despite efforts to increase internal production, the country will remain dependent on imports for over 85% of its consumed oil volume in the coming years.
China's Energy Security: The largest economy in Asia continues to balance between rising domestic production and increased imports of energy resources. Beijing has not joined sanctions against Russia and has taken advantage of the situation to increase purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China’s oil imports approached record figures, reaching around 11 million barrels per day (just shy of the historical peak in 2023). Gas imports – both liquefied and piped – are also maintaining high levels, providing fuel for industry and thermal power as the economy recovers. Concurrently, China is increasing its hydrocarbon production every year: in 2025, domestic oil production grew to a historic maximum of ~215 million tonnes (≈4.3 million barrels per day, +1% year-on-year), and natural gas production exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5–6% year-on-year). While the growth in domestic production has partly met demand, China still imports approximately 70% of its oil consumption and about 40% of its gas. To enhance energy security, Chinese authorities are investing in the exploration of new fields, technologies to improve oil yield, and expanding capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build up its oil reserve volumes, creating a "safety cushion" against market shocks. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – are flexibly adapting to the new circumstances, combining import diversification with the development of their resource base.

Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation

Growth in Renewable Generation: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries recorded record volumes of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the US, the share of renewables in electricity generation exceeded 30% for the first time, with the combined generation from solar and wind finally surpassing that from coal-fired power plants. China maintains its status as the world leader in installed renewable capacity and commissioned record volumes of new solar and wind power plants last year. Governments around the world are increasing investments in green energy, modernising grids, and energy storage systems, aiming to meet climate goals and capitalise on the declining costs of technologies.
Integration Challenges: The rapid growth of renewable energy brings not only benefits but also new challenges. The main issue is ensuring the stability of energy systems as the share of variable sources (solar and wind generation) increases. Experience from 2025 demonstrated the necessity of having backup capacities: power plants capable of quickly meeting peak load demands or compensating for declines in renewable output during adverse weather. Despite the extensive deployment of renewables, China and India are continuing to commission modern coal and gas-fired power plants to satisfy rapidly increasing electricity demand and prevent capacity shortages. Therefore, at this stage of the energy transition, traditional generation still plays a crucial role in ensuring reliable electricity supply. For further safe increases in the share of renewables, breakthroughs in energy storage systems and digital management of grids are required, allowing even more renewable capacities to be integrated without the threat of disruptions.

Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amidst a “Green” Agenda

Historical Peaks: Despite the global drive towards decarbonisation, world coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, it exceeded the previous peak set a year earlier, primarily driven by increased coal combustion in Asia. China and India, which account for two-thirds of global coal consumption, ramped up electricity generation from coal plants to offset variations in renewable output and meet rising demand. At the same time, several developed countries have continued to reduce coal usage, but no global decline has yet occurred. The sustained high demand for coal highlights the challenges of the energy transition: developing economies are not yet ready to abandon cheap and accessible coal, which provides basic stability in energy supply.
Outlook and Transition Period: Global coal demand is expected to start significantly declining only by the end of the current decade – as large capacities of renewable energy are brought online, alongside the expansion of nuclear power and gas generation. This transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption may occur due to weather anomalies (e.g., droughts reducing hydroelectric output or harsh winters increasing heating needs). Governments are forced to balance between emission reduction goals and the necessity of ensuring energy security and acceptable prices. Many Asian countries are investing in cleaner combustion technologies and carbon capture systems while gradually shifting investments towards renewable sources. It is anticipated that the coal sector will maintain relative stability in the coming years before beginning to decline in the 2030s.

Oil Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortages and New Restrictions

Diesel Paradox: By the end of 2025, a paradoxical situation emerged on the global oil products market: while oil prices were falling, refining margins, particularly in diesel fuel production, surged sharply. In Europe, the profitability of diesel production increased by περίπου 30% year-on-year as demand for diesel remained high while supply was limited. Reasons include the recovery of active transport and industrial work post-pandemic, the reduction of refinery capacities in recent years, and the reconfiguration of trading flows due to sanctions. The European embargo on Russian oil products forced the EU to import diesel from more distant regions (the Middle East, Asia) at elevated prices, while local fuel shortages have been observed in some other countries. As a result, wholesale prices for diesel and aviation kerosene remained high at the end of the year, with retail prices in several regions rising faster than inflation.
Market and Outlook: Analysts expect that high margins in the diesel, aviation kerosene, and gasoline segments will persist at least over the coming months – until new refining capacities are brought onstream or demand begins to drop significantly due to the transition to electric transport and other energy sources. In 2026–2027, several large refineries are expected to launch in the Middle East and Asia, which should partially alleviate the fuel shortage in the global market. At the same time, tightening environmental regulations in Europe and North America (for example, sulfur content requirements and increased taxes on traditional fuels) may restrain long-term growth in demand for oil products. Thus, the oil products market enters 2026 with a tense balance: supply lags behind demand in specific segments, and any unplanned reduction in fuel output (e.g., due to accidents at refineries or sanctions) could lead to price spikes.

Russian Fuel Market: Continuing Stabilisation Measures

Export Restrictions: To prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending the emergency measures introduced in autumn 2025. The government has confirmed that the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel will remain in effect at least until 28 February 2026. Experts estimate that this measure is keeping an additional 200,000–300,000 tonnes of fuel on the domestic market each month, which would have previously been exported. This has improved the availability of fuel stations and helped avoid acute shortages of gasoline and diesel during peak winter consumption.
Price Stability: The complex of measures implemented has allowed for containment of price increases at fuel stations. In 2025, retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia increased by only a few percent, which is comparable to the overall level of inflation. Authorities intend to continue a proactive policy to prevent price spikes and ensure uninterrupted fuel supply for the economy. In anticipation of the spring field work in 2026, the government continues to monitor the market and is ready to extend restrictions or introduce new support mechanisms if necessary to ensure that the agricultural sector and other consumers are fully supplied with fuel at stable prices.

Financial Markets and Indicators: The Energy Sector's Reaction

Stock Dynamics: The stock indices of oil and gas companies reflected the decline in oil prices at the end of 2025 – the shares of many oil extraction and refining corporations dropped amidst falling profits in the upstream segment. Middle Eastern exchanges, which are dependent on oil prices, saw a correction; for example, the Saudi Tadawul index dropped by approximately 1% in December. Shares of major international companies in the sector (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) also showed a moderate decline by the end of the year. However, in the early days of 2026, the situation stabilised somewhat: the anticipated decision from OPEC+ had already been factored into market prices and was received by investors as a factor of predictability. Against this backdrop, along with rising oil prices due to the Venezuelan crisis, the shares of many oil and gas companies shifted to a neutral-positive dynamic. Should oil prices continue to rise, the stocks in the oil and gas sector may gain an additional growth impetus.
Monetary Policy: Central bank actions influence the energy sector indirectly, through the dynamics of demand and investment flows. In several developing countries at the end of 2025, monetary policy began to ease; for example, Egypt's Central Bank cut the key rate by 100 basis points, aiming to support the economy after a period of high inflation. Easing financial conditions stimulates business activity and domestic energy demand – the Egyptian stock index rose by 0.9% in the week following the rate cut. In the major economies of the world (the US, EU, and UK), interest rates remain elevated in the fight against inflation. Tough monetary conditions slightly dampen economic growth and fuel consumption, as well as render borrowed funds expensive for capital-intensive projects in the energy sector. On the flip side, high yields in developed countries keep part of the capital on the financial markets of these countries, which restricts the influx of speculative investments into raw asset markets and contributes to relative price stability.
Commodity Exporter Currencies: The currencies of major energy resource exporting countries show relative stability, despite the volatility of oil prices. The Russian rouble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and the currencies of Gulf states are supported by strong export revenues. At the end of 2025, amid falling oil prices, the values of these currencies weakened only slightly, as many commodity-exporting countries' budgets are balanced against lower price expectations, and the presence of sovereign funds and, in the case of Saudi Arabia, a rigid currency peg smooth out fluctuations. Entering 2026 without signs of a currency crisis, commodity economies appear relatively resilient, positively influencing the investment climate in the energy sector.