Global News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector for Sunday, 11 January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of 11 January 2026 are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and conflicting trends. Geopolitical tensions are reaching new heights as the United States intensifies sanctions in the energy sector, threatening to redistribute global oil and gas flows. At the same time, world oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices have stabilised at moderate levels following the declines in 2025, reflecting a balance between oversupply and subdued demand. The European gas market is navigating the depth of winter without turmoil - record gas reserves and mild weather are keeping prices low, ensuring consumer comfort. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries continue to rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities are continuing to implement measures to stabilise the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors for this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeping Prices at Moderate Levels
Global oil prices maintain relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is within the $55–59 range. Current quotes are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the continued market correction in 2025 following the peaks of the energy crisis during 2022–2023. Prices are under pressure from concerns about overproduction: OPEC+ countries increased output by nearly 3 million barrels per day last year to reclaim market share, while global demand growth slowed amid moderate economic growth and enhanced energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of major oil exporters is currently focusing on stability. In early January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This action was necessitated by the seasonally low winter demand in the northern hemisphere and the desire to prevent a new market oversaturation. Approval of the status quo for production was achieved despite political tensions within the cartel—the priority remained to prevent a drop in prices. As a result of such preventive measures, oil is being held within a narrow price corridor, and volatility is decreasing. Nevertheless, investors and oil companies are closely monitoring geopolitical events that could impact oil supply, whether through sanctions or regional conflicts, although fundamental factors are currently prevailing.
Gas Market: Europe Navigating Winter Confidently, Prices Remaining Low
The gas market's spotlight is on Europe, which is entering the New Year with a solid buffer. By the start of winter, EU countries had injected record volumes of gas into their underground storage facilities—storage was nearly 100% full by the end of 2025. Even now, in the peak heating season, reserves remain significantly above historical averages, ensuring supply security. An additional factor of stability is the mild weather in Europe during December and early January, which has reduced fuel withdrawals from storage. Alongside rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index is fluctuating around €25–30 per MWh at the beginning of January, significantly lower than the peak values seen during the energy crisis two years ago. For European industry and consumers, these price levels have provided significant relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and household heating bills have decreased compared to last winter. The market is prepared for potential weather surprises—any short-term cold spells may temporarily boost demand and prices; however, there are currently no systemic risks of fuel shortages. Additionally, global gas consumption is expected to rise in 2026 (according to IEA estimates, world gas consumption may reach a new record), primarily driven by Asia. However, for the moment, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, and the European strategy for diversifying suppliers and conserving energy resources is proving effective.
International Politics: US Sanctions Pressure and Crisis in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to substantially influence sentiment in energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States has intensified its sanctions pressure related to Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump has approved the advancement of a new law aimed at punishing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill proposes the imposition of extraordinarily high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports into the US from states “knowingly trading” with Russia in energy resources. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. The largest buyers of Russian oil, such as China and India, along with several other Asian, African, and Latin American countries, are caught in the crosshairs. These measures have already complicated relations between the US and key emerging economies: Beijing has vocally protested against external interference in its commerce, asserting that normal economic ties between China and Russia are legitimate and should not be politicised. India, on its part, is trying to navigate this situation—indeed, it has reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports and is negotiating with Washington to ease previously imposed US tariffs on Indian goods.
Another significant event is the sudden turn of events in Venezuela, which could impact the global oil market. In the first days of January, it was announced that the US had conducted a military operation leading to the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American forces. President Trump stated that Washington takes responsibility for assisting in the transitional governance of the country until a new government can be established. This unprecedented action has triggered a sharp reaction on the international stage: several countries, including China, have condemned the violation of sovereignty and principles of international law. However, many investors in the oil and gas sector are now questioning whether a regime change in Caracas will lead to the gradual re-entry of Venezuelan oil into the global market. Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its production has plummeted over the past decade due to sanctions and management crises. Experts agree that even with political changes, an immediate surge in exports is unlikely: the country’s oil sector needs significant investments and modernisation. Nevertheless, a potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could add volumes of heavy oil to the market, becoming a new factor for the balance of power in OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty—from sanction wars to regime changes in oil-producing countries—remains the backdrop that FEC market participants cannot ignore, even as its influence is currently offset by oversupply and coordinated actions by producers.
Asia: Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of demand for energy resources, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. The focus is on the actions of India and China, whose choices significantly impact the global market:
- India: New Delhi is striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. Following the onset of the Ukraine crisis, India increased purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, faced with the threat of Western trade restrictions, it reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports. Simultaneously, the country is focusing on developing domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Programme for the Development of Deepwater Oil and Gas Fields. The aim is to unlock new offshore fields and boost production to meet the rapidly growing domestic demand that current output cannot satisfy. Furthermore, India is rapidly expanding renewable energy capacities (solar and wind power plants) and infrastructure for liquefied gas, aiming to diversify its energy balance. However, oil and gas remain the backbone of its energy supply, essential for industry and transport, which compels India to delicately balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risks of sanctions.
- China: The second-largest economy in the world continues its course towards enhancing energy self-sufficiency, combining the expansion of traditional resource extraction with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China ramped up domestic coal and oil production to record levels to cover demand and reduce import dependency. Simultaneously, the share of coal in the country's electricity generation has fallen to a multi-year low (~55%), as billions of dollars are invested in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power stations. Analysts indicate that in the first half of 2025, China commissioned more renewable energy capacity than the rest of the world combined, even managing to reduce absolute fossil fuel consumption. Nevertheless, in absolute figures, China's appetite for oil and gas remains immense: imports of petroleum products, including from Russia, continue to play a significant role in meeting needs, especially in transport and chemistry sectors. Beijing is also actively securing long-term contracts for LNG supply and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious targets for increasing the share of non-carbon energy while also reserving traditional capacities—authorities do not intend to allow energy shortages, recalling the blackouts of the past decade. Thus, China is moving along two trajectories: implementing the clean technologies of the future while ensuring reliable support from coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
In 2025, the global transition to clean energy reached new heights, confirming its irreversibility. Many countries recorded record-high electricity generation from renewable sources. According to estimates from international analytical centres, total production from wind and solar for the first time surpassed the generation from all coal-fired power plants combined. This historical milestone was achieved due to a sharp increase in new capacities: during the first half of 2025, global generation from solar power plants grew by nearly 30% compared to the same period a year earlier, while wind power rose by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the main growth in global electricity demand and allowed for reduced use of fossil fuels in several regions.
However, the energy transition is accompanied by challenges related to the reliability of power supply. When demand growth exceeds the introduction of "green" capacities, or when weather conditions fall short (calm, drought, anomalous frosts), systems are forced to compensate for the difference through traditional generation. For instance, in 2025, the US, faced with an economic revival, increased output from coal-fired power plants because renewable resources were insufficient to meet all consumption growth. In Europe, due to weak wind and hydropower resources in the summer and autumn, gas and coal consumption partially rose to cover needs. These examples underscore that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants still serve as a safety net, offsetting the variability of sun and wind. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth out these fluctuations. However, in the near term, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewable energy goes hand in hand with maintaining a significant role for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power, which ensure the stability of energy systems.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market demonstrates how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite ambitious global decarbonisation efforts, coal use remains at record-high levels worldwide. Preliminary data suggests that in 2025, global coal demand grew by another 0.5%, reaching approximately 8.85 billion tonnes—a historic maximum. The main growth has been driven by Asian economies. In China, which consumes over half of the world’s coal, coal-fired electricity generation, while decreasing relative to the record input of renewable energy, remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, Beijing, concerned about the risks of energy shortages, approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to prevent outages. India and Southeast Asia also continue to burn coal actively to meet growing energy demand, as alternatives have yet to keep pace with economic growth.
Prices for thermal coal stabilised in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (for instance, Australian Newcastle coal), prices held at levels significantly below the peak of 2022 but still above pre-crisis levels. This stimulates mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade and subsequently decline as climate policies strengthen and new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a critical component of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base load generation and heat for industry, and therefore, until effective replacements are introduced, demand for coal will remain robust. Thus, the tension between environmental goals and economic realities continues to shape the future of the coal industry: the downward trend is evident, yet coal's "swan song" is far from over.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilisation through Government Actions
In the Russian domestic fuel segment, relative stabilisation has recently been observed, achieved through unprecedented government measures. Back in August–September 2025, wholesale prices for petrol and diesel on Russian exchanges reached record highs, surpassing even the crisis levels of 2023. This was due to a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transportation and harvest campaigns) and several supply constraints—including unplanned repairs and accidents at a number of oil refineries (OR), which reduced product output. To avert shortages and shield consumers from price shocks, authorities intervened swiftly in market mechanisms and enacted an emergency plan to normalise the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of automotive petrol and diesel, extending it to all producers—from independent plants to major oil companies. This measure, extended until the end of September, returned hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fuel to the domestic market that had been previously exported monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, restrictions began to be gradually eased. Major ORs were allowed to resume some exports under strict government control, whereas export barriers for smaller traders and intermediaries largely remained. Thus, the export channel was reopened cautiously to prevent a new surge in domestic prices.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the measures implemented was the enhancement of control over the movement of petroleum products within the country. Producers were mandated to prioritise domestic consumers' requests and prohibitions were placed on the practice of mutual purchases of fuel on exchanges between companies (which had previously driven prices up). The government and relevant ministries (MinEnergy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between plants and gas stations, bypassing intermediary traders, ensuring that fuel reaches filling stations at fair prices.
- Market Subsidies: Financial instruments were also deployed to keep prices in check. The state increased the volume of budget subsidies to refining companies and expanded the application of the damping mechanism (reverse excise tax), which compensates companies for lost income when selling fuel on the domestic market rather than exporting it. These payments encourage oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of petrol and diesel to gas stations domestically without fear of losses.
The complex set of measures has already yielded results by early 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from peak values, and retail prices at filling stations have risen only moderately (about 5–6% over the entire year of 2025, close to the inflation rate). A physical shortage of petrol and diesel in the domestic market has been averted—fuel is available at gas stations, including in rural regions during autumn work. The Russian government assures that it will maintain strict control over the situation: at the first sign of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from state fuel reserves could be swiftly initiated. For participants in the FEC market, this policy indicates predictability in domestic prices, although exporters of petroleum products must contend with partial restrictions. Overall, however, the stabilisation of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even amidst external challenges—sanctions and global price volatility—domestic prices for petrol and diesel can be kept within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
