Current News in Oil, Gas and Energy as of 11 December 2025: The EU's Rejection of Russian Energy Resources, Oil Market Balance, Global LNG, Russia's Exports to Asia, Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Sector Forecasts. Analytical Overview for Investors and Industry Companies.
The spotlight is on the decisive steps taken by the European Union to abandon Russian energy resources, the changing monetary policy of the United States and its impact on global oil and gas prices, as well as recent geopolitical events reflected in the fuel and energy complex. This overview is aimed at investors and market participants in the oil and gas, fuel and energy sectors, as well as anyone monitoring the dynamics of the oil, gas, electricity, and raw material markets.
Global Oil Market: Prices and OPEC+
Global oil prices have stabilised after a recent increase: Brent crude is trading at around $62 per barrel, while WTI is priced at approximately $58. The rally in prices last week was driven by expectations of a reduction in interest rates in the US and concerns over supply constraints (sanction risks for Russian and Venezuelan exports). However, overall, oil prices have decreased by about 15% throughout 2025, as the market faces the threat of oversupply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious stance. During the latest OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to keep current production quotas unchanged at least for the first quarter of 2026. The alliance is still holding back a portion of its capacity – a total of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day (around 3% of global demand) remains "in reserve" under existing production restriction agreements. With Brent prices around $60, OPEC+ representatives are focusing on market stabilization rather than immediate increases in market share, considering the deteriorating demand-supply balance forecast.
Key factors currently influencing the oil market:
- Monetary policies of major economies (easing by the US Federal Reserve supports demand outlook).
- Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and Iran, risk of conflicts - for example, around Venezuela).
- OPEC+'s actions (maintaining production constraints and readiness to respond to potential oil surplus in the market).
- Economic growth rates and demand for raw materials (including the recovery of demand in China and the accelerated transition to renewable energy sources).
Monetary Policy and Demand for Energy Resources
The US Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy this week: at the conclusion of the meeting on 10 December, a reduction in the base rate by 0.25% is expected. This marks the third rate cut in 2025, aimed at supporting a cooling economy and labour market. Lower rates and potential dollar weakening typically stimulate economic growth and demand for energy resources – from gasoline to electricity – which has a positive effect on the oil and gas market. Industry investors are closely monitoring signals from regulators: the current cycle of monetary easing could conclude if inflation stabilises; however, the expectations of cheaper borrowing costs have already contributed to the recent rise in oil prices.
Europe's Rejection of Russian Energy Resources
The European Union is taking firm steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On 10 December, EU ambassadors approved a phased plan to cease all forms of Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the agreement on the forthcoming embargo as "the beginning of a new era" for Europe – an era in which European energy will permanently rid itself of dependence on Russian energy resources. EU Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, added that a law banning any imports of Russian oil will be proposed by the beginning of 2026, aiming to "turn off the tap" for supplies from Russia by no later than 2027.
These measures continue the course taken by the EU following events in 2022: during this time, Europe has sharply curtailed purchases of Russian pipeline gas (almost to zero) and imposed an embargo on oil transported by sea. The new initiatives are intended to cement the legal separation from Russia and stimulate the development of alternatives – from increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar and other countries to an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources. The Kremlin has reacted sceptically to the EU's strategy: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that abandoning relatively cheap Russian gas in favour of more expensive imports would doom the European economy to rising costs and declining competitiveness in the long term.
Key elements of the EU's energy strategy:
- Complete abandonment of Russian gas: cessation of pipeline gas and LNG imports from Russia by no later than 2027.
- Embargo on oil and petroleum products: a legislative ban on the import of Russian oil and petroleum products is planned for the same date.
- Diversification of supplies: increasing LNG imports from alternative suppliers, enhancing domestic renewable energy generation, and energy conservation to replace Russian hydrocarbons.
Redirection of Russian Supplies to Asia
Facing a reduction in Western markets, Russia is actively redirecting energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: back in late August, the first shipment of liquefied gas from the Novatek "Arctic LNG-2" project was sent to China, even though this terminal is under US sanctions. According to trader data, Russian LNG supplies to China grew by double-digit figures in autumn, with Beijing eagerly increasing purchases of energy resources at a discount of 30-40%, ignoring unilateral Western sanctions. Energy collaboration between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, supporting the economies of both countries: Russia secures an alternative market for its exports, while China gains affordable fuel for its needs.
India also remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Following the EU's embargo, Indian refineries increased their purchases of Urals crude and other grades at substantial discounts to global prices. In recent negotiations, Russian leadership confirmed its commitment to ensure stable oil and petroleum product supplies to India. Although New Delhi remains cautious, balancing geopolitical risks, the cheap Russian energy resources help meet growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check.
Simultaneously, Moscow is searching for opportunities to expand its export infrastructure to the East. Discussions are underway to increase pipeline capacity to China (the "Power of Siberia-2" project) and to bolster its tanker fleet for delivering oil to Asian markets while circumventing restrictions. These steps aim to reinforce the long-term shift of Russian energy flows from West to East.
Key steps taken by Russia in Eastern markets:
- Launch of Russian LNG supplies to China from the new "Arctic LNG-2" project, despite sanctions restrictions.
- Increase in oil exports to India on favourable terms (discounts to global prices), reaffirmation of commitment to supply the Indian market with fuel.
- Development of infrastructure: plans for new pipelines ("Power of Siberia-2") and expansion of the tanker fleet for uninterrupted exports to Asia.
Kazakhstan and Transit Risks
The instability associated with the military conflict in Ukraine presents new risks for energy resource transit in Eurasia. In early December, an attack by Ukrainian drones on the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk forced Kazakhstan to revisit its oil export routes. The Kazakh Ministry of Energy announced that a portion of oil from the Kashagan field will be redirected via an alternative route to China. Previously, Kazakhstan exported the majority of its oil through the CPC pipeline, which delivers raw materials to the Black Sea terminal in Russia. The CPC is responsible for transporting oil from key Kazakh fields (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak) and remains the primary export channel for the country.
Although the damage from the drone strike did not result in a complete halt of shipments, the incident underscored the vulnerability of this international infrastructure. The Kremlin labelled the attack on the CPC terminal as an outrageous incident, emphasising the strategic importance of the consortium. Kazakhstan, for its part, has begun diversifying its routes: in addition to the Chinese direction, increasing shipments via Caspian ports and other bypass routes are being considered. In the long term, Astana plans to enhance energy security through the development of refining: plans for constructing a new large refinery with foreign investors have been announced, which will increase domestic capacities and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products. Experts note that transit risks through Russian territory are increasing – such incidents can impact the global oil market, reminding participants of the price premiums associated with geopolitical risk.
Global Gas and LNG Market
The natural gas market is experiencing comparatively stable conditions relative to the frenzy of two years ago. In Europe, despite the approaching winter, the pricing environment is calmer than in previous years: gas reserves in underground storage are at comfortable levels, and spot prices are far from the records of 2022. The reduction in supplies from Russia is being compensated by LNG imports – European terminals are actively receiving gas from the US, Qatar, Norway, and other sources. According to analysts, Russian LNG supplies to the EU decreased by nearly 7% year on year (down to approximately 18 billion cubic metres) from January to November 2025, reflecting the EU's gradual phase-out of even liquefied gas from Russia.
The supply of LNG on the global market continues to grow. New export capacities are coming online in the US: the large Golden Pass terminal in the Gulf of Mexico (a joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil) is preparing to commence supplies, expanding America's capabilities for gas exports. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion project, plans to boost LNG production to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027, concluding long-term contracts with European and Asian buyers. Meanwhile, Asian countries are responding flexibly to the market dynamics: for example, Pakistan has negotiated with Qatar to redirect LNG shipments designated for it to other markets due to a temporary surplus of gas and weak domestic demand. Against the backdrop of new capacity launches and tempered demand, gas spot prices remain relatively low, although weather factors and supply interruptions can still trigger short-term price spikes.
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
The development of renewable energy is gaining momentum, although the climate agenda faces pushback from the oil and gas sector. At the November UN Climate Conference COP30 in Brazil, intense debates erupted around the phasing out of fossil fuels. The final draft of the agreement did not satisfy the European Union – the text was stripped of a straightforward roadmap for the gradual phase-out of oil, gas, and coal under the pressure of a group of countries that are major hydrocarbon exporters. As a result, the agreements reached are of a compromise nature: instead of concrete commitments to curtail fossil fuel production, countries focused on increasing funding for climate adaptation and overarching emission reduction goals.
Meanwhile, the energy transition is being implemented in practice. The year 2025 has become a record year for the commissioning of new solar and wind generation capacities in many countries. Major economies – from China and India to the US and the EU – are investing in renewables, energy storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. However, in the short term, traditional resources continue to play a vital role: high gas prices have necessitated an increase in coal consumption for electricity generation in certain regions in 2025, temporarily halting the decarbonisation trend. Experts suggest that as the share of renewables increases (supported by government initiatives), the demand for coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline, strengthening the global shift towards sustainable energy.
Forecasts: A Look Ahead to Early 2026
Participants in the energy sector are concluding 2025 with moderate optimism but without undue illusions. Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices may be under pressure due to rising inventories: several forecasts indicate a decrease in Brent prices to $55–60 per barrel, unless new shocks occur. At the same time, geopolitical factors – from the evolving situation in Ukraine to sanction decisions and local conflicts (including a potential escalation in Venezuela or the Middle East) – can sharply influence market dynamics. In the gas market, the coming months will largely depend on the weather: with a mild winter and sufficient reserves, gas prices will remain low, but unexpected cold spells or interruptions in supply chains could lead to price surges.
For investors and industry companies, adapting to new conditions will be particularly important. Diversification of supply sources, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including in renewable energy) will be key elements of business resilience. The outgoing year of 2025 has demonstrated the close interconnection between economy, politics and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnectedness is likely to be further reinforced: the global market will have to balance between oversupply and shortage risks, while the global community seeks to find balance between energy security and climate goals.
