Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sectors as of Friday, 14 November 2025. Analysis of Oil Surpluses, Sanctions Against Russia, European Energy Risks, and New Developments in Nuclear and Renewable Energy.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
Global oil prices remain under pressure due to signs of oversupply and weakening demand. After a sharp decline the previous day, prices stabilised on Thursday: Brent hovers around $63 a barrel, while WTI is close to $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of overproduction, as OPEC recently revised its forecast, expecting global oil supply to slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for production growth outside of OPEC+, signalling a potential market surplus next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels in recent months.
Statistical data confirms this trend: commercial oil inventories are rising in key regions. In the US, crude oil stocks increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels in the week ending 7 November, a similar pattern is observed in storage facilities across Europe and Asia. According to analysts from Vortexa and Kpler, a record volume of oil—around 1 billion barrels—has accumulated on tankers worldwide. A significant portion of this floating stock consists of hard-to-sell oil from sanctioned countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) that ports refuse to accept. Additionally, increasing exports from some major producers (such as Saudi Arabia) are contributing to the temporary oversupply in the market. Nevertheless, experts note a price "floor" at around $60 per barrel—short-term support for the market comes from supply disruption risks, particularly the anticipated tightening of US sanctions against Russian exports.
Russian Oil under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks a Way Out, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against Russia's oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the United States added oil companies LUKOIL and Rosneft to its sanctions list, mandating that counterparties complete all operations with them by 21 November. Sources indicate that LUKOIL has approached the US Department of the Treasury for an extension, citing the need for more time to fulfil current contracts and sell overseas assets. The company had previously rushed to sell its international network of production, refining, and trading, and a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor was reported; however, early in November, the US Treasury expressed objections, causing the deal to fall through. As a result, LUKOIL's overseas operations are now in limbo: the company has already declared force majeure at its largest foreign production site, the West Qurna-2 field in Iraq. LUKOIL is now urgently seeking new buyers for its assets while hoping to secure a regulatory grace period from US authorities to facilitate an orderly exit from its projects.
Importers of Russian crude in Asia are also restructuring their supply chains. In India, the largest state oil refining company, Indian Oil, has issued a tender for oil supplies in early 2024, including Russian ESPO (Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean) and Sokol grades in the list of possible types. However, the tender stipulates that suppliers and loading ports must not be under US, EU, or UK sanctions. Hence, Indian refineries plan to continue purchasing Russian oil through alternative traders, circumventing direct cooperation with Rosneft and LUKOIL. Concurrently, another Indian refining company, Nayara Energy (partially owned by Rosneft), has stated that it will maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite the pressure of sanctions.
In China, however, there has been a noticeable reduction in Russian oil purchases by major players. Fearing secondary sanctions, several large state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapot" refineries have cut imports of crude oil from Russia by nearly half. This shift was prompted by the situation surrounding the private Shandong Yulong refinery, which fell under UK and EU sanctions this year for working with Russian raw materials. According to Rystad Energy, the abandonment of Russian oil by Chinese companies has affected around 400,000 barrels per day—around 45% of previous supply volumes to China. This has already impacted the market; prices for the Far Eastern ESPO grade have plummeted to multi-month lows due to reduced Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers are forced to redirect their flows to other buyers and employ more complex sales schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Assault: Russian Refineries Weathering the Storm
In addition to sanctions, oil production and refining in Russia face physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure deep within its territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been hit, posing an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the peak of the second wave of attacks (August-October), up to 20% of Russia's total refining capacities were temporarily taken offline (including scheduled repairs). However, Russian refiners managed to avert a catastrophic decline: they rapidly activated backup capacities at surviving plants and quickly restored damaged facilities. According to industry reports, the total volume of oil refining in Russia for January-October decreased by only about 3% compared to the same period last year (to around 5.2 million bpd). The output of petroleum products dropped by only 6%, although the authorities had to temporarily restrict the export of gasoline and diesel and bolster air defence around strategic energy facilities due to the attacks.
Kyiv claims that drone strikes have significantly undermined Russian fuel logistics, reducing domestic gasoline supplies by dozens of percentage points. However, Moscow asserts that the market has stabilised: the Russian government has implemented manual price control and normalised supply, with President Vladimir Putin publicly assuring that the country “will not bend under external pressure.” Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil sector has shown resilience to shocks, but further escalation of attacks or tightening sanctions could pose new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amidst Renewable Energy Shortages
Europe is approaching the peak heating season with less comfortable gas reserves than last year. EU gas storage facilities are not fully stocked; by early November, the average storage level stood at around 85% of maximum capacity, whereas this time last year they were close to 100%. In Germany—the largest gas consumer in Europe—the storages are filled to approximately 86%, partly because the country has been burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. Reduced production from renewable energy sources (wind and hydro) forced German energy companies to increase output from gas and coal-fired power plants. For the first ten months of 2025, gas-fired electricity production in Germany grew by about 15% compared to last year (to 41.6 TWh), while the share of gas in generation rose to 19%—the highest in the past decade. Simultaneously, total generation from wind and hydro sources across the region decreased by around 7% year-on-year, and the shortfall had to be compensated by "dirtier" sources: in addition to gas, Germany increased coal production by 4%.
The slowed pace of filling storage facilities means that Europe is entering winter with a less robust “safety cushion.” Experts believe, however, that even in the event of colder weather, the region does not face an acute gas shortage: the reserves are close to historical averages, and record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports can replace most of the fallen Russian supplies. Nevertheless, the energy market situation remains fragile. Continued weak wind or disruptions in LNG supplies could result in price spikes for gas and electricity for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is prepared for winter—the European Commission recently noted that the gas volumes in storage and conservation measures allow Europe to confidently weather the upcoming heating period without implementing consumption restrictions, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: US Grants Hungary an Exemption
On the geopolitical front, there are updates regarding a temporary easing of the sanctions regime. The United States has agreed to grant an exemption to its EU ally, Hungary, freeing it from some of the energy sanctions against Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that over the next 12 months, restrictions will not apply to the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary via pipelines. Essentially, Budapest has received a one-year grace period, allowing it to continue importing energy resources from Russia despite the overall Western sanctions regime.
Moreover, the US has indefinitely exempted the expansion project of the Hungarian Paks-II nuclear power plant, being implemented with the involvement of Russia's Rosatom, from sanctions. Officially, Washington explains these steps as an effort to assist Hungary in ensuring energy security and diversification. This decision follows talks between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and US President Donald Trump. Earlier, Orbán publicly stated that he had secured full exemption for Hungary from sanctions on Russian fuel imports; however, it is clarified that this relief is temporary and pertains only to one year. European partners within the EU have received the US maneuver with caution, as Hungary remains the country most dependent on Russian energy supplies in the bloc.
Nuclear Energy: the UK Chooses Site for Its First SMR
The UK has announced a significant step in its nuclear generation development. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has identified a site for the construction of the country's first Small Modular Reactor (SMR). This will be a site at Wilfa on the Isle of Anglesey in North Wales, which previously hosted a large nuclear power plant that has since been decommissioned. The project will utilise British technology from Rolls-Royce SMR and aims to bolster energy security and achieve climate objectives. The compact reactor in Wales is expected to supply electricity to up to 3 million homes, and its construction will create around 3,000 jobs. The first electricity from the new facility is anticipated to enter the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the UK government's choice has caused diplomatic tension. The US has actively lobbied for an alternative project—a conventional nuclear power plant developed by Westinghouse on the same site—and has sharply criticised London’s decision. The American ambassador called the emphasis on SMRs "disappointing," asserting that small reactors will not lead to a swift reduction in high electricity prices in the UK and will delay the commissioning of new capacities. The ambassador's statement included unusually harsh wording towards a partner. UK officials countered that the choice of site and technology for constructing the nuclear plant is the sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasised that it is not abandoning its partnership with the US in the nuclear field—concurrently, it is seeking another site for a potential large nuclear power plant where American developments could be involved. Experts note that the contradictions surrounding the project in Wales reflect the UK's ambition to develop its own innovations in energy while balancing national interests and allied relationships.
New Projects: Gas Field in Suriname Set for Development
The global commodity market has a new promising source of gas. The state company of Suriname, Staatsolie, has announced the commercial viability of a significant gas discovery in offshore Block 52. The Sloanea field was discovered by Malaysian conglomerate Petronas—the block operator. In the project, Petronas holds 80%, while the remaining 20% belongs to a subsidiary of Staatsolie. The contract for exploration and production was signed back in 2013, and to date, three wells have been drilled with positive results confirming substantial gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving to the development phase. According to Staatsolie's statement, the Sloanea development concept includes drilling subsea gas wells, establishing underwater infrastructure, and deploying a floating LNG plant (FLNG) directly at the extraction site. Petronas is expected to present a detailed development plan for regulatory approval. If all goes well, an investment decision may be made in the second half of 2026, with Suriname anticipating first gas volumes to be produced in 2030. The implementation of this project could transform the small country into a new LNG exporter and attract foreign investment into the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Generation Records and Emission Challenges
The renewable energy sector continues to show strong growth, although climate indicators have yet to improve. According to new data from analytical centres, global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Wind energy also shows significant growth. As a result, the total installed capacity of renewables in 2025 is projected to rise by approximately 10–11%—meaning the world will once again break records for expanding renewable generation. The increase in clean energy already covers nearly all additional electricity demand: according to the International Energy Agency, the rise in wind and solar power production this year compensates for the lion's share of the increase in global energy consumption.
Nevertheless, historical peaks in greenhouse gas emissions are also being updated. The international research project Global Carbon Project released a forecast stating that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel usage will rise by another 1.1%, reaching a new record of around 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2. This indicates that even record-breaking rates of renewable energy adoption are still insufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts call on countries to double their efforts in transitioning to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap "green" electricity makes a global energy transition virtually inevitable, yet achieving climate targets by 2030 will require more decisive political measures and investment.
