Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 10 December 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, Sanctions Pressure, Commodity Market Trends, Fuel Production, Energy Policy, and Global Trends.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of 10 December 2025 are attracting the attention of investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. The confrontation between Russia and the West continues under the conditions of sanctions pressure: there has been no direct easing of restrictions; on the contrary, G7 and EU countries are discussing new tightening measures against the Russian oil and gas sector at the start of 2026. The global oil market maintains a fragile balance: Brent prices hover around mid-$60 per barrel, reflecting the balance between supply growth and weakened demand. The European gas market enters winter with relative confidence – underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU remains over 75% full at the beginning of December, providing a cushion and keeping prices at a moderate level. The global energy transition continues to accelerate: record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) are reported in many regions, although for the reliability of energy systems, countries have not yet abandoned traditional resources. In Russia, following an autumn surge in prices, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilise the internal fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electric power, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Cautious Production Management Amidst Oversupply Risks
Global oil prices remain relatively stable due to numerous fundamental factors. North Sea Brent is trading around $62–64 per barrel, while American WTI is within the $58–60 range. Current prices are approximately 10% lower than levels a year ago, indicating a gradual market correction following the price peaks of 2022-2023. The price dynamics are influenced by several key trends:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance has gradually increased market supply throughout 2025. In December, the production quotas for key participants in the agreement were raised by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (as in the previous two months); however, a pause in production increases has been decided for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent oversupply. From April to November, the total OPEC+ quota increased by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, leading to an increase in global oil and oil product stocks.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing at more moderate rates. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand growth for oil in 2025 is expected to be about 700,000 barrels per day (compared to over 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecasts have become more restrained - the cartel expects demand to grow by approximately 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day for 2025. Contributing factors include slowing global economic growth and the effect of high prices in previous years stimulating energy savings. An additional factor has been weakening industrial growth in China, limiting the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Sanctions and Uncertainty: Sanctions pressure creates conflicting effects in the market. On the one hand, new Western restrictions – such as the US and UK sanctions against major Russian oil companies – complicate production growth in Russia, maintaining the risk of shortages of certain grades of crude. On the other hand, Russian supplies continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices, softening the overall effect of sanctions on global supply. Additionally, certain optimism among investors has been fostered by signals of progress in trade negotiations between the US and its largest partners, which has improved market sentiment.
In summary, the impact of these factors ensures that the market is close to a surplus state: oil supply slightly exceeds demand, keeping prices from rallying further. Exchange quotations remain significantly lower than the highs of past years. Several analysts believe that if current trends continue in 2026, the average Brent price could fall to the range of $50–55 per barrel.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, attention remains focused on Europe. EU countries entered the winter period with historically high gas reserves: by early November, European UGS were over 98% full, and by the first decade of December, stock levels are maintained at a comfortable ~75%. This is significantly higher than average levels from previous years and provides a reliable buffer in case of cold weather. Exchange prices for gas remain relatively low: January futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27–28/MWh (approximately $340 per thousand cubic metres), reflecting the balance of supply and demand. The continuing influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) further enhances market stability: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports into Europe may set a new record, compensating for decreased pipeline gas supplies. A potential risk factor remains the possibility of cold weather or increased competition for LNG from Asia; however, the current situation is favourable for consumers. Moderate gas prices help reduce costs for Europe's industry and energy sector at the start of winter.
International Politics: Sanctions Remain Tightened and New Measures on the Horizon
Despite occasional diplomatic contacts, there has been no significant easing of the sanctions policy in the oil and gas sector. On the contrary, Western countries signal their readiness to tighten restrictions. For instance, G7 countries and the European Union held discussions in December regarding a new sanctions package against Moscow. According to sources, a complete ban on maritime shipments of Russian oil is being discussed for implementation from 2026, which may replace the existing price ceiling of $60 per barrel. The aim of such measures is to further reduce Russia's export revenues. The US authorities also introduced additional sanctions against Russian oil giants at the end of autumn, complicating their access to technologies and financing. As a result, uncertainty for the sector remains: while there have been no serious supply disruptions so far due to the restructuring of logistics chains, the prospect of new restrictions cautions market participants.
A positive aspect remains the preservation of dialogue channels. Contacts are ongoing between the relevant ministries of Russia and several Asian countries, allowing energy flows to be redirected and mitigating the impact of sanctions. Furthermore, there has been a certain improvement in trade relations on a global scale: the de-escalation of tensions between major economies (for example, the gradual resolution of trade disputes between the US and China) supports investor confidence and demand for energy resources. In the coming months, market attention will be focused on the development of the sanctions situation: the implementation of new restrictions or, conversely, a pause in sanctions pressure will significantly affect sentiments and long-term strategies of energy companies.
Asia: Major Consumers Balance Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Faced with ongoing sanctions, New Delhi is striving to secure its energy balance. A sharp abandonment of Russian oil and gas imports is unacceptable for the country; therefore, Indian authorities continue to purchase Russian energy resources, seeking favourable terms. Russian companies are offering significant discounts to Indian refineries against the Brent price (estimated at about $4–6 per barrel of Urals), allowing India to increase imports of oil and oil products to meet domestic demand. Simultaneously, India is focusing on developing its resource base: under a national programme to explore deep-sea fields, the state company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in the Andaman Sea, with early results assessed as promising. Success in finding new oil and gas reserves could ultimately reduce the country’s dependence on external supplies.
- China: Asia's largest economy continues to adhere to a multi-vector strategy. On one hand, China remains the leading buyer of Russian oil and gas, taking advantage of the situation to replenish stocks at acceptable prices. In 2024, the PRC imported around 213 million tonnes of oil and 246 billion cubic metres of natural gas (an increase of 1.8% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively), and in 2025, import volumes remained high with slight increases. On the other hand, Beijing is increasing domestic production: from January to October 2025, China produced about 200 million tonnes of oil (+1.2% year-on-year) and 320 billion cubic metres of gas (+5.8% year-on-year). Although the share of domestic production is growing, the country remains dependent on imports for approximately 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. To enhance energy security, China is investing in field development, oil recovery technology, and the expansion of storage infrastructure. Thus, India and China – key players in the Asian region – continue to play a dual role in the FEC markets, combining active energy resource imports with measures to increase local production.
Energy Transition: RES Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
In 2025, the global transition to low-carbon energy has reached new heights. Many countries have reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar and wind power plants are achieving new generation maxima. In the European Union, the combined share of solar and wind generation exceeded electricity production from coal and gas power plants for the first time this year, continuing the trend of recent years to displace fossil fuels. In the United States, the share of renewable sources in overall generation steadily exceeds 30%, and generation from wind and solar has, for the first time, surpassed electricity production from coal plants within a year. China, the leader in RES scale, introduced dozens of new gigawatts of capacity—more than 100 GW of solar panels and wind turbines were installed in 2025, setting national records once again. The IEA estimates that total investment in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half of this amount directed towards RES projects, modernising power grids, and energy storage systems.
However, ensuring the stability of energy systems still requires the participation of traditional forms of generation. The rising share of RES poses challenges for the energy sector: during hours when solar or wind generation is low, backup capacities are required. In many countries, during peak demand periods and adverse weather conditions, gas and even coal-fired power stations are brought back online. For example, some European countries last winter temporarily increased output at coal-fired plants during windless weather, despite the environmental costs. Governments and companies are rapidly developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids to enhance flexibility and reliability in energy supply. According to experts, by the end of the decade, renewable sources could take first place globally in terms of electricity generation volume, but during the transitional period, the need to support gas and other traditional power stations will persist. Thus, the energy transition is progressing steadily, though the balance between "green" technologies and classical resources remains critically important for the stability of the sector.
Coal: Market Stabilisation Amidst Steady Demand
The global coal market in 2025 demonstrates relative stability amidst still high demand. Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, coal consumption remains substantial, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China maintains coal burning at near-record levels — annually, Chinese generation consumes over 4 billion tonnes of coal, and national production (around 4.4 billion tonnes per year) barely meets domestic needs. India, boasting large reserves, is also actively using coal: over 70% of electricity in the country is generated from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing new coal station projects to meet the growing demand for electricity.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have ramped up production and export of thermal coal in recent years, allowing prices to remain in a moderate range following the extreme surges of 2022. In 2025, thermal coal prices fluctuate around $100–120 per tonne, reflecting a balance of consumer and producer interests. Buyers obtain fuel at relatively acceptable prices, while mining companies experience stable sales with sufficient profits. Many states declare long-term plans to reduce coal's share for climate reasons, but over the next 5–10 years, it will remain a crucial energy source for billions of people, especially in Asia. Thus, the coal sector is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is steadily high, prices are moderate, and despite the climate agenda, coal remains one of the mainstays of global energy.
Russian Oil Products Market: Results of Price Control Measures
By the end of the year, interim results of the emergency measures implemented in Russia's internal fuel market are being evaluated. In autumn 2025, following a spike in wholesale gasoline prices to record levels, the government took several steps to normalise the situation:
- Export Restrictions: The complete ban on the export of motor gasoline and diesel, imposed in September, was extended until early October, and then gradually eased for large oil refineries. As the market balance improved, the largest refineries were allowed to resume some export supplies, while restrictions remained in place for independent traders and smaller plants.
- Resource Distribution Control: The shortages in supply were caused by unscheduled stops at several refineries (accidents and drone attacks disrupted the operations of major plants, reducing fuel production). Authorities intensified supervision over the distribution of petroleum products in the domestic market—producers were mandated to prioritise meeting domestic consumer needs, and practices of speculative fuel trading among wholesalers that inflating prices were curtailed. Together with the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Exchange, a transition to long-term direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies is being developed to exclude intermediaries from the supply chain.
- Subsidies and Price Controls: The government continued to provide financial support to the sector. The mechanism of reverse excise duty on oil (the so-called “damper”) and direct subsidies to refiners partially compensated their lost revenues from domestic fuel sales, encouraging them to direct a greater volume of petroleum products to the domestic market.
The complex of measures implemented has helped avoid acute fuel shortages—petrol stations across the country are supplied with gasoline and diesel. However, complete control over price increases has not been achieved: according to Rosstat, by early December, retail gasoline prices in Russia increased by approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, while overall inflation was around 5%. Thus, fuel prices have risen at twice the rate of the overall consumer basket, indicating persistent pressure on the market. Authorities state that they will continue to monitor the situation: if necessary, export restrictions may be tightened again, and sector support is planned to be extended. As early as December, the relevant operational headquarters, led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, is discussing additional steps—from adjusting the damping mechanisms to replenishing fuel reserves—to prevent a recurrence of price spikes. The government is aiming to ensure stable fuel supply for the domestic market and keep prices for end consumers within acceptable limits, while minimising risks for the economy and social sector.
