Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of 15 February 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI, Gas and LNG Market, Electricity and Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries. Global Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
The end of the week in commodity markets has been characterised by a "tug-of-war" between geopolitical premiums and growing signals of oversupply. Oil has remained close to $68 per barrel for Brent, but the focus is shifting towards April: market participants are assessing the likelihood of OPEC+ resuming output increases and the impact of enhanced operational capabilities in Venezuela for international players. In the gas market, Europe remains sensitive to weather and hydrological balances: a lack of snow cover in the Alpine region boosts gas generation and supports import demand.
- Oil: Brent and WTI ended the day slightly up, but with weekly losses; the key catalyst remains expectations regarding OPEC+ and the strengthening theme of supply.
- Gas: The American Henry Hub stabilised around $3+ per MMBtu after extreme volatility in January; in Europe, TTF has retreated, but energy balance risks persist.
- Oil Products: The European ICE gasoil experienced a noticeable decline; premiums and margins remain volatile amid refinery maintenance and seasonal demand adjustments.
- Coal and Electricity: ARA coal strengthened, while German baseload electricity futures declined by the end of the day.
Key Price Indicators
Below is a showcase for investors and energy market participants: oil, gas hubs, oil products, coal, and electricity. All changes are calculated as the difference between the closing prices on 13.02.2026 and 12.02.2026 for the corresponding indicators (where available).
| Indicator | Region/Platform | Unit | Closing (13.02.2026) | Daily Change | Daily Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (front-month) | Global export benchmark | USD/barrel | 67.75 | +0.23 | +0.34% |
| WTI (front-month) | USA, NYMEX | USD/barrel | 62.89 | +0.05 | +0.08% |
| Henry Hub (NYMEX natural gas, front-month) | USA, key gas hub | USD/MMBtu | 3.243 | +0.026 | +0.81% |
| TTF (ICE Dutch TTF, front-month) | Europe, gas hub | EUR/MWh | 32.500 | -0.494 | -1.50% |
| ICE Gasoil (London Gas Oil) | Europe, diesel/gasoil | USD/ton | 672.50 | -25.75 | -3.69% |
| ARA Coal (Rotterdam Coal) | Europe, ARA (proxy for API2 logic) | USD/ton | 104.85 | +1.55 | +1.50% |
| Electricity Germany (Baseload month) | Europe, futures | EUR/MWh | 101.22 | -2.95 | -2.83% |
Oil: Supply and Demand Balance Back in Focus
For the oil market, the week has been a "regime switch": geopolitical premiums (primarily surrounding the US-Iran situation) have supported prices, but supply risks have begun to dominate the news stream. Sources indicate that some OPEC+ participants are inclined to return to planned output increases from April — a decision being discussed in light of expected seasonal demand boosts in spring and summer. For investors, this signals an increased probability of a mild surplus in the second quarter and enhances the sensitivity of oil prices to inventory and export data.
Meanwhile, international forecasters are amplifying the "bearish" narrative: the IEA has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, simultaneously highlighting a structural gap between expected supply and consumption. Within this framework, any additional flow — from OPEC+ or sanctioned countries — is perceived as a factor shifting the curve towards contango and applying pressure on spreads.
- Fundamentals: the market is processing simultaneous signals of "less demand" and "more potential production".
- Supply Risks: discussions around OPEC+ output increases and ramping up opportunities in Venezuela through changes in access regimes for international companies.
- Short Horizon: next week, key announcements from OPEC+ and dynamics of US oil inventories/refining will be crucial.
Gas and LNG: Europe Remains Weather-dependent, US Returns to More "Normal" Prices
The gas market is diverging across regions. In the US, Henry Hub is returning to values closer to medium-term balance expectations — following the January cold wave, when futures and spot prices exhibited extreme spikes. For fuel companies and gas consumers, this appears as a transition from "force majeure" demand to a calibration of stocks and production.
In Europe, TTF has decreased by the end of the day, but fundamental nervousness persists: the weather factor changes not only through temperature but also via hydrology. Low snow cover in parts of the Alpine region translates to weak hydropower generation and increased gas intake for electricity, directly impacting the filling/unloading rates of storage and spot delivery premiums. For the global LNG market, this connection amplifies the importance of short-term changes in flows and the availability of tankers.
As of 15.02.2026: detailed data on European gas storage loading and JKM/TTF spreads are not disclosed in this publication (no confirmed public numbers from available primary sources), thus the assessment is provided based on the overall trend of demand for gas generation and hub volatility.
Oil Products and Refineries: Diesel Shelf Weakens, but Maintenance Supports Margins
On the oil products markets, the week ended with a decline in European gasoil, indicating a rapid revision of expectations in the middle distillate segment. However, for refineries and fuel companies, the key parameter is less about the futures level and more about crack spreads, regional premiums, and the availability of raw materials. Here, the picture is complicated by two opposing processes: seasonal refinery maintenance reduces oil product supply, while weakening demand outside the peak heating/transportation window diminishes price support.
In the US, a significant corporate signal has been the focus on Venezuelan crude: easing access regimes increases the likelihood of rising imports of heavy grades to optimise the refining slate at American refineries. For arbitrage players, this suggests a possible redistribution of flows: some barrels that previously went in other directions may be diverted to the Atlantic, impacting freight costs and differentials.
- For Refineries: risk — "flat" prices for oil products amid expensive raw materials; support — maintenance of competitors and logistics constraints.
- For Trading: focus — diesel/gasoil, regional spreads, and freight costs on product tankers.
- For Investors: the importance of guidance on margins and utilisation levels from public refiners is increasing.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Shape an "Energy Premium"
Geopolitics is once again a component of price determination: tensions in the Middle East surrounding the US-Iran issue support a risk premium for oil and amplify the "cost" of potential disruptions. Concurrently, the sanctions agenda in Europe is shifting from price constraints to logistics — discussions are underway regarding tightening restrictions on maritime services for Russian oil and widening the sanctions field to infrastructure and ports of third countries. This directly affects transportation and insurance costs while elevating the role of "grey" supply chains.
On the other end of the spectrum is Venezuela: the expansion of access for international players opens the possibility for accelerated production and investment; however, operational details (licensing, payment mechanisms, banking compliance) will determine the pace of actual increases. This is why the oil market is trading not only on current inventories in the coming weeks but also on the quality of political signals.
Energy and Renewables: Policy Alters Curves, Electricity Reflects Nervousness in Balances
The renewables sector continues to expand its investment base, but policy is becoming more differentiated. The UK has achieved a record level of support for solar projects in another auction, underscoring its commitment to scalable low-carbon technologies. Conversely, France has adjusted its energy strategy parameters, lowering targets for wind and solar while enhancing the role of nuclear generation; this signifies a more complex trajectory for the development of networks, storage and balancing capacities in European energy.
At the price level, German electricity (futures) decreased by the end of the day, appearing as a reaction to a short-term normalisation of balance expectations; however, fundamentally, European energy remains sensitive to gas, weather conditions, and the availability of low-carbon generation.
Short-term outlook for the coming days (15–20 February 2026): the base scenario suggests oil trading within a corridor, where the upper limit is restricted by expectations of output increases, while the lower limit is protected by geopolitical premiums. Gas in Europe will remain a "weather trade", and the key intrigue for oil products will be the resilience of diesel spreads amid refinery maintenance.
- What to watch for investors: signals from OPEC+ (ahead of the meeting on 01.03.2026), practical details regarding Venezuela (licences and export flows), dynamics of the EU/G7 sanctions agenda and US-Iran risks.
- What to watch for market participants: arbitrages in raw materials and oil products, logistics of deliveries, premiums to gas hubs, and pressure on gas generation in Europe.
This material has been prepared in an expository form for the audience of investors and market participants: oil, gas, energy, renewables, coal, oil products, refineries, and fuel companies. If specific figures or corporate details are missing from open primary sources, they are marked as unavailable as of 15.02.2026.
