Oil and Gas News and Energy Update for 26 July 2026: Brent Recedes to $97 After Breaking $100, TTF Gas Above €63/MWh, CPC Shutdown, Russian Gasoline Export Ban Until Year-End, Newcastle Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. An Overview for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Sector
The global fuel and energy complex concludes the third decade of July experiencing heightened volatility. Prices for Brent oil, which broke through the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday for the first time in nearly two months, retraced some of their gains on Friday, returning to $97; however, the raw materials sector still gained over 10% for the week. European gas at the TTF hub settled above €63/MWh—the highest level since January 2023. Against this backdrop, the weekend's main corporate-regulatory news was the Russian government's decision to extend the full ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2026. Below is a detailed overview of the key events in the oil and gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors, fuel, and oil companies, and participants in the fuel and energy market.
Key Highlights for Sunday Morning, 26 July 2026
- Oil: Brent reached a two-month peak near $102 on Thursday, closing above $100, but corrected by about 4% on Friday to $97 per barrel. WTI ceded about half of its six percent increase, trading near $88-89.
- Performance: Over the month, Brent has gained around 30%, and over the year—more than 40%. The weekly result is a gain of 10-12%.
- Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh—a record since January 2023; this represents an increase of over 45% since the beginning of July and almost double year-on-year.
- Logistics: Shipments from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk have been halted, and Kazakhstan has reduced its production.
- Russia: The ban on gasoline exports has been extended until the end of the year; restrictions on diesel will be lifted as the market recovers.
- Coal: Newcastle coal remains around $130 per tonne amid subdued demand from India.
- Electricity: The contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power for 3.2 GW establishes data centres as a new driver of electricity demand.
Oil Market: Risk Premium Taken but Not Held
The oil market has been trading for the fifth consecutive week based on military updates rather than demand and supply balances. The breakthrough of $100 for Brent occurred following Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea—an event that expanded the risk zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz and raised questions about alternative Saudi export routes. The Friday correction is attributed to a simple reality: oil continues to pass through Middle Eastern routes, with some tankers operating with their transponders turned off, while technical indicators of overbuying called for a pause after the fastest monthly rally since 2022.
Supporting Factors for Prices
- Limited navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of maritime oil trade.
- Threats to Red Sea ports: Riyadh on Saturday warned of potential dangers near Yanbu—a terminal capable of loading millions of barrels per day.
- Halting of Kazakhstani exports via the CPC, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
- Increased freight and insurance rates are being transmitted to the purchasing prices of refineries.
- Longer routes: Asian buyers are exploring the delivery of Saudi oil via the Suez Canal and around Africa.
Restraining Factors
- The US-Iran negotiation track remains technically not broken: both sides confirm ongoing contacts through intermediaries in Oman and Pakistan.
- China is interested in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf affect the world's largest oil importer.
- Spare capacities within OPEC+ and the continuing recovery of quotas.
Geopolitics: Dispute Over Navigation Rules through Hormuz
The key plot of the weekend is not military but legal. Tehran has stated that Washington is attempting to unilaterally open a new transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz bypassing Iranian procedures and views this as a violation of the June memorandum of understanding. The US insists that Iran does not control the strait, while military forces confirm that navigation is being supported by escort forces. Meanwhile, the US has conducted its thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and warned of a “harsh military response” to new attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. For the market, this means a simple truth: the geopolitical risk premium in oil and gas prices will remain until a functioning transit mechanism is established and not merely until a formal ceasefire is declared.
OPEC+: Meeting on 2 August as the Main Planned Trigger
The alliance continues to gradually restore production: on 5 July, seven countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed on an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August. The next meeting is scheduled for 2 August, and it will occur in a fundamentally different price reality than the previous one. OPEC+’s primary issue today is not quotas but that a significant portion of spare capacity is physically located in the Persian Gulf and depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's exit from the alliance on 1 May 2026 has further narrowed the managed pool of supply, and the developing methodology for assessing maximum capacities will become the basis for quotas in 2027—this is a separate source of internal disagreements.
Gas Market: TTF at Record Highs, Winter Risk for Europe Increasing
European gas has become the second epicentre of the crisis. The increase in TTF by more than 45% since the beginning of July has been driven by a combination of structural factors: reductions in Qatari LNG supplies following damage to facilities in Ras Laffan, the rerouting of Atlantic cargoes to premium Asia, an anomalous heatwave in Europe boosting electricity demand for air conditioning, and rising freight costs. The region's largest gas supplier has warned that the EU is highly unlikely to reach the target of 80% storage filling ahead of the heating season. Lagging injection rates compared to the five-year average make the winter of 2026-2027 a primary risk for European industry and energy, and the window for accelerating injection is narrowing: seasonal demand is set to rise as early as late September.
CPC and Kazakhstan: Logistics as a Bottleneck for Exports
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has halted loading at its marine terminal near Novorossiysk following a series of drone attacks on tankers. As of 21 July, Kazakhstan has stopped pumping crude into the system: shipowners are refusing to approach single-point mooring devices, with some tankers remaining in line. The Ministry of Energy of the Republic has confirmed a “controlled adjustment” of daily production to prevent storage facilities from becoming overfilled. The CPC accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and links the Tengiz and Kashagan fields, developed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, to the Black Sea. For European refineries focused on the light low-sulphur CPC Blend grade, this means an urgent search for replacement batches in an already tight market.
Russia: Gasoline Export Ban Extended Until End of 2026
The main decision of the past week for the Russian oil products market was announced on 25 July: the full ban on gasoline exports is extended until the end of the current year, applying to both producers and non-producers. Restrictions on diesel fuel are planned to be lifted gradually as the market recovers. The regime that was in effect until 31 July has thus transformed from a seasonal measure to a half-year one.
The context of the decision reflects the extremely challenging summer for the industry in recent years:
- The volume of oil refining in June fell to approximately 4.1 million barrels per day—a record low in recent years—due to damage to refineries;
- Attacks on plants continue: facilities in the Ulyanovsk region were affected at the end of July, previously in Omsk and Saratov;
- The norm for mandatory exchange sales of 'Euro-5' gasoline has been reduced from 15% to 10% for the period until 30 September;
- Import duties have been eliminated, and oil product imports are increasing;
- Marine shipments of oil products hit a historic low in June.
Relevant departments report gradual improvements in fuel supply in certain regions and a switch to a “targeted” mode of deficit management. Priorities remain unchanged: harvest campaigns, northern deliveries, and supply to Siberian regions. For oil companies, the embargo extension signifies a predictable yet prolonged squeeze on export margins and a necessity to maintain high volumes of domestic sales until year-end.
Coal: A Safe Haven with Limited Upside
The coal market remains a beneficiary of the LNG deficit but without hysteria. Australian energy coal Newcastle 6000 kcal is trading around $130 per tonne—not far from early March lows: subdued purchases by India, which has increased its own production and stockpiles, offset rising demand in Northeast Asia. Japan continues to lead in coal generation growth amid declining gas use, while South Korea sharply increased imports. Industry estimates of additional demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 are around 70 million tonnes, escalating to 90 million tonnes. Notably, large mining companies are not sanctioning new projects: the market perceives the upsurge as cyclical rather than structural.
Electricity and Renewable Energy: Demand Growing Faster than Supply Capacity
The energy shock has not slowed but instead accelerated the energy transition. Global electricity demand is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and another 3.8% in 2027, while renewable generation will exceed coal generation globally for the first time in history; the share of renewables in global output is shifting from 33% to 37%. The drivers remain unchanged: industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centres.
The latter factor has ceased to be an abstraction. This week, the announced 25-year contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power includes the supply of up to 3.2 GW for a data centre in Georgia, with capacity to come online between 2028 and 2032, an investment volume of $20 billion, and an option for managed load reduction to 1 GW. This stands as one of the largest single commitments of capacity in the history of American technological infrastructure and clearly illustrates why electricity is becoming an investment class of its own alongside oil and gas.
What This Means for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Market
- Hedging is Essential. Movements of 4-7% per session render unhedged positions in oil, gas, and oil products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refinery Margins Under Pressure from Both Sides. Expensive feedstock under administrative export restrictions and retail prices compress crack spreads.
- Logistics More Important than Geology. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the price per barrel is determined by the navigability of bottlenecks.
- Premium for Predictability. Coal, nuclear, and assets with long contractual horizons are being revalued upwards.
- Winter Risk in Europe Not Mitigated. Delayed filling of storage facilities creates the potential for a new spike in TTF in the fourth quarter.
The calendar for the upcoming week sets out four key indicators: the OPEC+ meeting on 2 August, storage filling statistics in Europe, progress on navigation negotiations in Hormuz, and the block of quarterly reporting from the largest oil and gas companies. Any of these events could shift prices by $5-10 per barrel within a single session. The fundamental scenario for oil and gas and energy over the coming months is sustained heightened volatility at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
