Global News on the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, 16 January 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, Key Events, and Trends in the Global Energy Market.
The global oil and gas markets at the beginning of 2026 are showing signs of increasing supply and persistent volatility. Oil prices remain moderate despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while demand for hydrocarbons is being restrained by slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, growing attention is being paid to the active expansion of wind energy, solar generation, and the development of other clean energy sources. Investors and market participants are closely analysing the balance between the excess supply of fossil fuels and the large-scale transformation of the energy sector.
Global Oil Market
- In January 2026, exchange prices for oil are holding steady in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel for Brent (WTI at around $58–60). A sharp decline in prices (-3%) over the past week was triggered by a softening of the White House's rhetoric regarding Iran: statements about possible non-intervention from the United States sharply reduced expectations of supply disruptions and eased market tensions.
- Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the overabundance of supply continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Oil production in the USA, Canada, and Latin America has reached record levels, shifting the balance towards excess. Experts forecast average Brent prices of around $55–60 in 2026, citing risks of further declines. According to the US Department of Energy, the average annual price for Brent in 2026 is expected to be around ~$56/barrel.
- OPEC also confirms the increase in demand: the January report predicts global oil consumption will rise to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026 (+1.38 million b/d from the previous year). Nonetheless, at the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, quotas remained unchanged — the cartel aims to balance the market without drastic cuts.
- European regulators continue to apply pressure on supplies from Russia: starting 1 February 2026, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to $44.1 per barrel, below the current Urals price (approximately $39). Simultaneously, the White House is actively leveraging energy sanctions: the US has already sold its first batch of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million, with proceeds frozen in overseas accounts (the principal one being in Qatar).
- Global refineries are responding to the surplus: many oil refineries are reducing their utilisation of excessive crude, and governments are forced to adjust fuel policies. For instance, the introduction of export quotas on gasoline in Russia is being discussed to prevent shortages in the domestic market. In Europe and Asia, the export of oil products is increasing, reflecting the balance between energy resources and clean energy sources.
Global Gas Market
- The European gas market is experiencing a new crisis due to winter cold. In mid-January, the TTF hub's spot price exceeded $387 per 1000 cubic meters — an increase of over 11% since the start of the week. A deficit in wind generation (the wind share dropped to approximately 15% of consumption compared to 20% a year earlier) has intensified demand for gas-fired power plants.
- European storage levels are at record lows: as of 13 January, the level of reserves was only around 52% of maximum capacity. Due to a deep deficit in pipeline gas (with transit from Russia via Ukraine halted), EU countries drastically increased LNG imports: in 2025, 109 million tonnes of LNG were delivered (+28% compared to 2024). In January 2026, approximately 9.5 million tonnes of LNG is expected (+18% year-on-year) to meet winter needs.
- Significant changes are also noted in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has increased gas imports by around 20% (to 30 million cubic metres per day) via Slovakia and Poland to make up for the halted transit and declining domestic production. Turkey and Southeast European countries are negotiating increased supplies from Azerbaijan and the USA to diversify their energy sources.
- Meanwhile, Russia is diversifying its exports: in 2025, Gazprom made its first deliveries to China (via the "Power of Siberia") amounting to 38.8 billion cubic metres, surpassing total deliveries to Europe and Turkey. This reflects a shift in the geography of demand: Asia is ramping up long-term purchases of Russian gas against the backdrop of increasing renewables.
Electricity and Renewable Sources
- Renewable energy continues to experience robust growth. In 2025, China installed record capacities for wind and solar generation — over 300 GW of new solar and 100 GW of wind power. This allowed clean electricity to outpace demand growth and enabled the first-ever reductions in output from coal-fired power plants (as detailed below).
- The increase in renewables occurred alongside a general rise in electricity consumption; however, the trend is decidedly skewed towards green generation. Many countries are ramping up investments in solar and wind energy: new auctions for the construction of solar and wind power plants in Europe and Asia are set at hundreds of megawatts of capacity annually.
- The nuclear sector is also of interest: Germany is revising its previous decisions and intends to reinstate nuclear power plants. Chancellor F. Merz labelled the 2022 decision to abandon nuclear energy a "strategic error" and announced plans for new nuclear reactor constructions to ensure the stability of the energy system.
- Overall, the share of non-carbon generation is increasing. The commissioning of hydro, geothermal, and biomass capacities is accelerating, as is the development of energy storage solutions. This intensifies competition with traditional sources and creates favourable conditions for future reductions in electricity prices.
Coal Energy and Climate
- As a result of 2025 data, a historic trend has been noted: coal generation in China and India has simultaneously decreased for the first time. In China, coal output fell by approximately 1.6%, and in India, it decreased by 3.0% compared to 2024. Such a simultaneous decline had not been recorded since 1973.
- The drop in coal demand is linked to a record increase in renewable energy and decreasing economic growth rates. In China, the rapid deployment of solar and wind capacities fully compensated for growth in electricity consumption, leading to the first-ever simultaneous decrease in coal generation in both of the largest coal-producing countries.
- As a result, the global energy structure is changing: the share of coal generation is decreasing, which has a positive impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This is critically important for meeting the climate commitments of many countries and curbing the rise in global electricity prices, thereby reducing the risks of energy shortages.
Oil Products and Refineries
- The balance in the oil products market reflects a phenomenon of fuel surplus. Many countries are witnessing elevated gasoline and diesel prices due to low inventories and expensive logistics in 2025. Refineries are cutting down their utilisation of excess crude, while regulators are implementing new measures: for example, in Russia, the introduction of gasoline export quotas is being considered to prevent domestic fuel shortages.
- Conversely, in the European Union, some refineries are refocusing on exporting fuels to developing countries. Oil product inventories in EU countries remain unstable amid a harsh winter; thus, the likelihood of further corrections in the fuel market is high as the economy recovers. Strong demand in Asia is supporting prices for fuel oil and diesel, which is incentivising investments in additional storage and refining capacities.
Global Energy Policy and Deals
- The policy of sanctions and alliances continues to shape the market. The European Union has reduced the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1/barrel, while the US has increased its pressures: the US Treasury has extended the license for operations with foreign assets of Lukoil, effectively easing sanctions against the oil company.
- Serbia and Hungary are preparing an intergovernmental agreement in energy: plans are underway to build the 113-kilometre Novi Sad – Aldjo oil pipeline (with a capacity of 5 million tonnes per year), as well as enhancing collaboration in electricity and gas supply (for example, reserving gas capacities). This is part of regional initiatives to diversify supplies.
- On the international stage, connections regarding LNG and pipelines are being strengthened. China and Southeast Asian countries are negotiating long-term contracts for LNG from the USA and Qatar, while Russia is promoting new gas routes (Central Asia–China, "Nord Stream – 3" in the future) to supply clients in Asia and Europe.
Forecasts and Investments
- Analytical agencies indicate a dual nature of prospects. On one hand, OPEC predicts an increase in oil demand (+1.38 million b/d in 2026); however, fundamental factors indicate an oversupply in the market. According to EIA data, Brent may "drop" to around ~$56/barrel in 2026, and the surplus will lead to an increase in global inventories.
- On the other hand, there is an increasing investment flow into clean energy. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, despite a temporary slowdown in job growth, global investments in wind and solar technical projects in 2026 will continue to reach record heights. There is also growing attention to hydrogen energy and energy storage: corporations are allocating new funds for the development of storage systems and "green" hydrogen.
- Investors are reorienting their portfolios: oil and gas companies are increasing R&D expenditures in renewables and energy efficiency, while Western funds are gradually reducing investments in hydrocarbons. The stock market is seeing interest in shares of "green" startups and renewable projects, which may, in the long term, adjust the balance of supply and demand in traditional energy markets.
