Current News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of 23 November 2025: Oil and Gas Market Dynamics, Situation in the Fuel and Energy Complex, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Domestic Fuel Market.
The latest developments in the oil, gas, and energy sector as of 23 November 2025 capture the attention of investors and market participants due to their inherent contradictions. Unexpected diplomatic initiatives provide cautious optimism regarding the alleviation of geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by a reduction in the "risk premium" in the oil market.
Global oil prices continue to face pressure from an oversupply and weakened demand – Brent quotes have fallen to around $62 per barrel (WTI at approximately $58), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. The European gas market appears relatively balanced: gas storage levels in EU countries remain high (over 80% capacity), providing a buffer ahead of the winter period and keeping prices at comparatively low levels.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining traction, with many countries achieving new records in electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still required for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following a recent sharp rise in fuel prices, measures undertaken by authorities are beginning to yield results, with the situation in the domestic market stabilising. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodities segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Easing and Oversupply Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices remain relatively low under the influence of fundamental factors. Brent is trading around $62-63 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $58, which is about 15% lower than a year ago. The dynamics of prices are influenced by several key factors:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for the deal participants will rise by approximately 137,000 barrels per day. Earlier, since the summer, monthly increases ranged from 0.5 to 0.6 million barrels per day, returning global oil and petroleum product stocks to levels close to pre-pandemic figures. Although further quota increases for 2026 have been paused due to fears of oversupply, the current increase in supply is already exerting pressure on prices.
- Slower Demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates demand growth in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecast is now more cautious, estimating an increase of about 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day. The weakening of the global economy and the effect of high prices from previous years are limiting consumption, with an additional factor being slowed industrial growth in China, which dampens the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Signals: Reports of a possible peace plan for Ukraine from the USA have decreased some geopolitical uncertainty, removing the risk premium in prices. However, the lack of real agreements and ongoing sanction pressures prevent the market from fully calming down. Traders react reflexively to the news: as long as peace initiatives are not realised, their impact remains short-term.
- Shale Production Constraints: In the USA, low prices have begun to restrain the activity of shale producers. The number of drilling rigs in American oil basins is declining as prices have dropped to around $60. This indicates a greater caution among companies and threatens to slow the growth of supply from the USA if such prices persist for an extended period.
The combined effect of these factors creates a situation close to surplus: global supply currently slightly exceeds demand. Oil prices confidently remain below last year's levels. A number of analysts believe that if current trends continue into 2026, the average Brent price could drop to around $50 per barrel. For now, the market remains in a relatively narrow range, receiving no impetus for dramatic increases or declines.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Stock Reserves and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe's preparations for the heating season. EU countries have actively injected gas into their underground storage (UGS) facilities throughout the summer and autumn. By mid-November, European storage was filled to approximately 82% of total capacity – slightly below the target of 90% as of November 1, but still at a very comfortable level. This ensures a significant reserve of gas in the event of a cold winter. Exchange prices for gas remain low: December futures at the TTF hub are trading around €25-28 per MWh (approximately $320-360 per thousand cubic metres), marking a low not seen in over a year. Such moderate prices indicate a balance of supply and demand in the European market.
A critical role is played by high imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Thanks to robust LNG deliveries (including from the USA and Qatar), Europe has successfully compensated for the decline in pipeline supplies from Russia and has filled UGS prematurely. In the autumn months, monthly LNG imports into the EU consistently exceeded 10 billion cubic metres. An additional factor is the relatively mild weather at the beginning of winter, which mitigates consumption and allows for slower drawdowns from storage. A potential risk ahead is the possible rise in competition for LNG from Asia if strong frosts hit the Asian countries and demand for gas increases. Nevertheless, for now, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, and prices are relatively low. This situation is favourable for Europe's industry and energy sector at the onset of the winter season.
International Politics: Peace Initiatives Regarding Ukraine and New US Sanctions
In the second half of November, encouraging signals emerged in the geopolitical sphere. It is reported that the US has prepared a plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which includes, among other things, the lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. According to media sources, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received strong signals from Washington about the need to promptly accept the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's involvement. The prospect of a peace agreement instils cautious optimism in the markets: the de-escalation of the conflict could eventually lift restrictions on Russian energy resource exports and improve the business climate.
At the same time, no real changes in the sanction regime have occurred yet – moreover, the West is tightening pressure. On November 21, new US sanctions aimed directly at the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. The largest companies "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" have been targeted: global counterparties are required to completely halt cooperation with them by this date. Previously, the US administration indicated its readiness to introduce further measures if it does not see progress on the political track – up to the imposition of harsh tariffs against countries actively purchasing Russian oil.
Thus, the absence of a specific breakthrough on the diplomatic front means the full retention of sanction pressures. Nevertheless, the very fact that dialogue is continuing provides a chance that the most severe actions from the West are currently postponed. In the coming weeks, the market's attention will be on the development of contacts between world leaders: positive shifts could improve investors' sentiments and soften sanction rhetoric, while the failure of negotiations threatens a new escalation of restrictions. The outcomes of current peace initiatives will have a long-term impact on energy cooperation and market dynamics in oil and gas.
Asia: India Reduces Imports of Russian Oil, China Increases Purchases
- India: Facing pressure from Western sanction policies, New Delhi is compelled to adjust its energy strategy. Previously, Indian authorities clearly indicated that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas was unacceptable due to the key role these supplies play in ensuring energy security. However, under increased US pressure, Indian refiners have begun to reduce their purchases. The largest private oil company, Reliance Industries, completely halted imports of Russian oil to its complex in Jamnagar since November 20. To retain the Indian market, Russian suppliers have had to offer additional discounts: December shipments of Urals oil are being sold at about $5-6 below Brent prices (whereas in the summer, the discount was around $2). As a result, India continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil at preferential terms, although overall imports are expected to decrease in the coming months. Concurrently, the country's leadership is taking steps to reduce long-term dependence on imports. Back in August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national programme for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields. Within this initiative, the state company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; the initial results are considered encouraging. This "Deepwater Mission" aims to unlock new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to the goal of gradually achieving energy independence.
- China: The largest Asian economy is also forced to adapt the structure of its energy imports while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas – Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has leveraged the situation to import raw materials at favourable prices. However, the latest US and EU sanctions have led to adjustments: Chinese state traders have temporarily suspended new purchases of Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions. Part of the resulting gap has been filled by independent refiners. The newest oil refinery, Yulong in Shandong province, has sharply increased its purchases and reached a record import volume in November 2025 – around 15 large tanker loads (up to 400,000 barrels per day) primarily of Russian oil (ESPO, Urals, Sokol). Yulong took advantage of the fact that several suppliers cancelled shipments of Middle Eastern crude following the sanctions and purchased the released volumes. Simultaneously, China is increasing its own oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies extracted 126.6 million tonnes of oil (+1.3% compared to the previous year) and 152.5 billion cubic metres of gas (+6%). The growth of domestic production helps partially satisfy increased demand, but does not eliminate the need for imports. According to analysts, in the coming years, China will still depend on external oil supplies for at least 70%, and gas for around 40%. Therefore, India and China – the two largest Asian consumers – continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for ensuring imported supply with the development of their own resource bases.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Sources Break Records While Traditional Energy Remains Relevant
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. Many countries are achieving new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In the European Union, by the end of 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants has for the first time exceeded generation from coal and gas power plants. This trend continued into 2025: the commissioning of new capacities allowed for further growth in the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance began to decline following a temporary increase during the 2022-2023 energy crisis. In the USA, renewable energy has also reached historic levels – at the beginning of 2025, over 30% of total generation was attributed to RES, and the combined output from wind and solar surpassed electricity production from coal plants. China, the world leader in installed RES capacities, is commissioning tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators annually, consistently breaking its own generation records.
Overall, companies and investors worldwide are directing significant funds towards the development of clean energy. According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds allocated to RES projects, modernising electrical grids, and energy storage systems. Simultaneously, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to ensure the stability of power supply. The growth in the share of sun and wind generates new challenges for balancing the grid during hours when renewable sources are not producing (at night or during calm periods). To meet peak demand and reserve power, gas and even coal power plants are still being utilised. For instance, in certain regions of Europe last winter, there was a need to temporarily increase generation at coal plants during periods of calm weather – despite the environmental costs. Governments in many countries are actively investing in energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids that can flexibly distribute loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources may emerge as the primary form of electricity generation globally, overtaking coal. However, in the coming years, there remains a need to maintain conventional power plants as a safeguard against power outages. Thus, the energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: High Demand Maintains Market Stability
Despite the accelerated development of RES, the global coal market still maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal fuel remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity demand support intense consumption of this resource. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – this autumn has approached record levels of electricity generation from coal. In October 2025, output at Chinese thermal power plants (mainly coal-fired) increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a record high for that month in history, reflecting increased energy consumption (total electricity production in China in October broke a 30-year record). Simultaneously, coal production in China decreased by approximately 2% due to intensified safety measures in mines, leading to an increase in internal prices. By mid-November, prices for energy coal in China rose to a maximum for the last year (around 835 yuan/tonne at the key port hub of Qinhuangdao), stimulating a rise in imports. Coal import volumes into China remain high – it is expected that in November, the country will import around 28-29 million tonnes by sea, compared to a minimum of about 20 million tonnes in June this year. Increased Chinese demand supports global coal prices: prices for Indonesian and Australian energy coal have risen to multi-month highs (30-40% above summer lows).
Other major importing countries, such as India, also actively use coal for electricity generation – over 70% of generation in India still comes from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing along with the economy. Many developing Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to construct new coal power plants to meet the growing electricity needs of their populations and industries. Leading coal-exporting countries (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) are increasing production and shipments to take advantage of the favourable market conditions. Overall, following the price spikes of 2022, the international coal market has returned to a more stable state. While many countries have announced plans to reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this type of fuel remains indispensable for ensuring reliable energy supply. Analysts note that in the next 5-10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will continue to play a significant role, even despite global efforts towards decarbonisation. Thus, there is currently relative equilibrium in the coal sector: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry remains one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilisation Achieved Through Government Measures
In the internal fuel sector of Russia, prompt actions are being taken to normalise the pricing situation. As early as the end of the summer, wholesale prices for petrol and diesel fuel in the country reached record levels, leading to local fuel shortages at several filling stations. The government was compelled to tighten market regulation: since September, restrictions on export of petroleum products have been introduced, while oil refineries have increased production following the completion of planned repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, exchange prices for fuel have begun to decrease from peak levels.
This downward trend has continued into November. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, as of the week ending November 21, the price of AI-92 petrol decreased by 5.3%, and AI-95 by 2.6%. Only during the trading session on Friday, November 21, the price per tonne of AI-92 fell to 60,286 rubles, while AI-95 dropped to 71,055 rubles. The wholesale price of summer diesel fuel decreased by 3.3% over the week. As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the stabilisation of the wholesale market will soon reflect in retail – consumer prices for petrol have been declining for the second consecutive week (averaging a decrease of 13-15 kopecks per litre). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of fuel to the domestic market. In total, the measures undertaken have already yielded initial results: the rise in prices has been replaced by a decline, and the situation after the autumn fuel crisis is returning to normal. Authorities hope to maintain control over prices and prevent further spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
