Current News in the Oil and Gas Sector and Energy as of 26 November 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Energy Sector, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a recent sell-off, oil prices remain at their lowest levels in recent months. A barrel of Brent is trading around $62–63, while WTI is approximately $58. The market is under pressure from a combination of factors: a significant increase in oil inventories in the US, cautious demand forecasts from the IEA and EIA, as well as geopolitical signals. Intensified negotiations for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine have alleviated fears of supply disruptions and further pulled prices downward.
- Inventories and Demand: According to the US Department of Energy, commercial oil inventories in the country rose by 6.4 million barrels over the past week – significantly exceeding expectations. Analysts note the risk of market oversaturation: the IEA estimates that by 2026, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day, which could lead to substantial oversupply.
- OPEC+ Decision: In early November, OPEC+ countries agreed only to a minor increase in production – by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while deciding to refrain from further quota increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to concerns over oversupply. Concurrently, new Western sanctions complicate growth in Russian production: US and UK restrictions have primarily impacted Rosneft and LUKOIL, suppressing investment.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of 21 November, US sanctions against major Russian oil companies have come into effect. These measures, targeting Rosneft and LUKOIL, could theoretically remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows are already facing disruptions: several tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been rerouted or delayed. Indian refineries have begun chartering tankers for crude supplies from the Persian Gulf to replace Russian volumes.
Meanwhile, financial institutions in Asia are seeking ways to circumvent restrictions. According to sources, Indian banks have developed a special payment mechanism allowing for the purchase of Russian oil in alternative currencies – UAE dirhams and Chinese yuan – provided that sellers are not under sanctions. Previously, some Indian refiners had temporarily halted purchases; however, an increase in the discount for Urals to approximately $7 per barrel has prompted them to resume imports under new terms. India’s largest refiner, Indian Oil, has already stated that it will continue to purchase crude from Russian companies not impacted by sanctions.
- Price Consequences: So far, the sanctions pressure has led to Russian oil being sold at record discounts, boosting demand among Asian refiners for Urals. However, starting from 16 January, the European Union will implement a complete ban on the import of petroleum products derived from Russian oil (the ICE exchange will cease accepting 'Russian' diesel and gasoline for delivery). This is expected to create a shortage in the fuel market and maintain high margin income for suppliers of alternative supplies.
Diesel Market and Oil Products
The oil products market continues to experience tension: diesel prices remain elevated. Over the past week, diesel quotations have only slightly retreated, remaining approximately 8% higher than at the end of October. The main reason is the global diesel shortage. Russia, the second-largest diesel exporter worldwide, has reduced supplies to a record low due to sanctions and attacks on refineries. In October, Russian diesel exports fell to around 669,000 barrels per day – the lowest since 2020. Previously, Rosneft and LUKOIL together ensured about 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (approximately 37% of Russian exports and 9% globally) – these volumes have effectively fallen out of supply now.
European and Asian refiners, previously reliant on inexpensive Russian crude, are being forced to restructure supply chains and cut purchases from Russia. As a result, diesel refining margins have significantly increased. American refiners have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, increasing their profit on each barrel by approximately 12%. Even if a détente emerges in geopolitics, it is unlikely that the EU will quickly lift restrictions on Russian energy resources – consequently, the diesel shortage and high fuel costs will persist.
European Gas Market
Natural gas prices in Europe continued to decline, reaching multi-year lows. On 24 November, gas quotations at the TTF hub for December delivery fell below €30 per MWh (approximately $355 per 1,000 m³) – the first time since May 2024. The market pressure has been influenced by optimism surrounding a potential peace plan for Ukraine. Market participants suspect that if progress in peace initiatives is achieved, the EU may soften its approach to purchasing Russian LNG, removing some of the "risk premium" from prices. It should be noted that before the conflict, Russia supplied up to 45% of the EU’s gas imports; this share has now been reduced to about 10%. Although Brussels has formally aimed to completely cease gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027, a number of countries (Hungary, Slovakia) contest the stringent timeline.
- Inventories and Demand: Despite low prices, Europe is experiencing record gas withdrawal rates from underground storage facilities. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, between 19–21 November, European countries were extracting unprecedented volumes of gas from storage. By 21 November, storage levels had dropped below 80% – one of the lowest figures in the last decade for this date. In the event of prolonged cold spells, current reserves may not be sufficient to stably meet demand from residential and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Import from the USA: In 2025, the European Union set a new record for American energy purchases – around $200 billion, including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel. The US now accounts for 60% of the EU's LNG imports. Brussels is actively securing long-term contracts for the delivery of American LNG, further reducing dependency on other sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. In Australia, trade unions in the LNG sector have initiated a strike at the expanding Pluto facility (operated by Woodside Energy), demanding equal pay with a similar Wheatstone project. If the strike proceeds, the commissioning of additional LNG export capacity will be delayed at least until the end of 2026. Such disturbances heighten tensions in the gas market: for instance, strikes at Australian export terminals in 2023 have already caused price spikes due to the redistribution of supply flows.
Energy Partnership between Russia and China
The VII Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum has commenced in Beijing, marking a new phase of cooperation between the two countries in the energy sector. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a welcome message to forum participants, expressed readiness to deepen comprehensive energy partnerships, highlighting the contribution of bilateral cooperation to the stability of global energy supply chains. The Russian side noted China’s impressive achievements: Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, called China the last remaining "industrial superpower" in the world and a great energy power. According to him, China is shaping a new face of global energy by combining traditional and alternative sources of energy.
Examples of Chinese leadership in the sector are impressive. The volume of electricity generation in China now exceeds that of the USA by more than double (two decades ago the situation was reversed). China accounts for approximately one-third of all global investments in energy – projected to reach $900 billion in 2025, which is 30% more than the total investments from North America and 1.5 times more than Europe. Rapid electrification and technological development have placed China in the first position for energy consumption worldwide. To meet growing demands, Beijing is paying special attention to energy security and infrastructure issues.
A practical step in developing cooperation has been progress in the gas sector. Gazprom and Chinese CNPC have begun the joint construction of a cross-border section of the gas pipeline along the "Far Eastern" route – across the Ussuri River at the border between the two countries. This project is being implemented under a 2023 agreement and provides for the supply of up to 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year to China (following a recent increase from the initial planned volume of 10 billion). A 25-kilometre branch from the Sakhalin – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok main pipeline will be constructed, equipped with a gas dehydration unit and a measurement station near Dalnerechensk. Export supplies via the new pipeline are expected to begin by the end of January 2027, strengthening the position of Russian gas in the Asian market.
Energy Policy and Renewable Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the UN climate summit COP30 in Brazil, participating countries failed to agree on a swift phase-out of fossil resources. The final declaration excluded a clause on a phased cessation of oil, gas, and coal usage, meaning that there is no longer an official commitment to abandon these types of fuel. This wording became a compromise between countries advocating a smooth transition to clean energy and large hydrocarbon-exporting states defending their economic interests.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders of the G20 at the summit in Johannesburg placed particular emphasis on energy security. In a joint statement, they highlighted the need for stable supplies of fossil fuels and indicated that the risks of sanctions on the energy market should be taken into account. Nonetheless, G20 countries confirmed their commitment to climate goals: the document recorded a goal to triple the total renewable energy capacities by 2030 and double the energy efficiency of the global economy.
- Renewable Energy Projects: Despite political disagreements, green energy projects continue to be implemented in various countries. In Germany, the company Statkraft has commissioned the largest hybrid power plant in the country, combining 46.4 MW of solar panels and a 57 MWh storage battery. The facility is capable of supplying electricity to around 14,000 homes, reducing CO₂ emissions by approximately 32,000 tonnes per year. In India, ReNew Power has secured $331 million from the Asian Development Bank for the construction of a 2.8 GW hybrid energy complex (solar and wind power stations with an energy storage unit), capable of delivering 300 MW of stable "green" power 24/7. Such projects enhance the reliability of energy systems while advancing the global energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: The state oil company of Saudi Arabia plans one of the largest deals in its history – the sale of stakes in export terminals and oil storage facilities. This operation is expected to attract over $10 billion, which will be directed towards the development of production, including the large-scale Jafurah gas project. Concurrently, Aramco continues an active investment programme to expand oil and gas production capacities, adhering to a strategy of increasing market presence.
Overall, by the end of November 2025, global energy markets remain in a state of unstable equilibrium influenced by opposing factors. On one hand, progress in peace negotiations and enhanced international cooperation (for instance, the deepening partnership between Russia and China) reduce the geopolitical premium in prices and mitigate disruption risks. On the other hand, sanctions barriers and structural issues in specific segments (especially in the diesel and gas markets) continue to sustain local shortages and high volatility. It is crucial for participants in the fuel and energy sector to closely monitor the progress of diplomatic initiatives, regulatory decisions, and major investment projects – as these will determine further dynamics in demand, supply, and prices within the industry.
