Global Energy and Fuel Sector News for Friday, 6 February 2026: Oil and Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Petroleum Products and Key Trends in the Energy Market.
The global fuel and energy complex (TEC) is showing significant dynamism as the weekend approaches. Oil prices have reacted with a decline to diplomatic signals, the gas market is adjusting to new delivery realities, and the energy transition is gaining momentum worldwide. These processes are influencing investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector, shaping the industry's development strategy. Below are the key news and trends in the oil, gas, and energy sector as of 6 February 2026.
Decline in Oil Prices Ahead of US-Iran Negotiations
Oil prices have decreased amid expectations of a dialogue beginning between Washington and Tehran. After two days of growth, the price of WTI crude fell to around $64 per barrel, whilst North Sea Brent is trading around $69 per barrel. Investors note that the willingness of the US and Iran to hold talks in Oman on 6 February has partially removed the geopolitical premium from oil prices. Previously, the market had accounted for risks of escalation—concerns about attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure had kept prices elevated. Now, diplomatic signals from the administration of President Donald Trump and Iran's agreement to discuss its nuclear programme have alleviated traders' anxiety.
However, volatility in the oil market remains, as the outcome of the negotiations is uncertain. The US insists on an expanded agenda, including security issues, while Iran wants to restrict discussions to sanctions and nuclear aspects. The uncertainty regarding the potential for real agreements at the initial stage of the talks is keeping market participants from becoming overly optimistic. Additionally, new data from the US revealed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased less than expected (around 3.5 million barrels, according to the EIA), limiting the potential for a new price rally. In general, oil companies and investors are closely monitoring the developments in the Washington-Tehran dialogue, understanding its significance for the balance of supply in the oil market.
Sanctions, Conflicts and Redirected Oil Supplies
Geopolitical factors continue to impact global oil and gas markets. The war in Ukraine remains in focus: ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure are escalating tensions in the energy resources market. President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently highlighted that the escalation of the conflict is directly affecting oil prices and called on the US to enhance support for Ukraine. Any escalation or, conversely, a de-escalation of the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West is immediately reflected in the global prices of oil and gas.
Meanwhile, pressure from sanctions is leading to a redistribution of oil flows in the global market. The White House is seeking ways to displace Russian oil from key sales markets. President Donald Trump has announced that he has secured a promise from India to gradually reduce imports of Russian energy resources. As an incentive, the US is prepared to lower trading tariffs for New Delhi—this step aims to increase supplies of American and Venezuelan oil to India. Although the Indian side has not officially confirmed any withdrawal from Russian crude, pressure is noticeable: Indian refineries have reported difficulties with payments and fears of secondary sanctions, causing them to reduce purchases of premium grades from Russia. Previously, Indian refineries had enjoyed significant profits thanks to substantial discounts on Russian oil delivered at prices well below global rates.
According to analysts' assessments, the Russian budget is facing significant challenges due to a fall in hydrocarbon revenues. The key reasons for the decrease in Russian export earnings include:
- A reduction in purchases of Russian oil by major importers (primarily India).
- An increase in the magnitude of discounts on Russian crude (over 20% off world market prices).
- High domestic interest rates, complicating industry development.
- A shortage of labor in the oil and gas sector.
In January alone, revenues from the export of oil and petroleum products for the Russian budget nearly halved, hitting a low not seen since the summer of 2020. Western sanctions against Russian oil and petroleum products (including price ceilings and tanker fleet restrictions) are increasingly impacting sales volumes. Russian oil exports at the start of 2026 have declined to approximately 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day (from record highs of about 1.7 million b/d in 2024-2025), and experts believe that Moscow will be forced to sell smaller volumes to Asia and continue to offer discounts. Consequently, global oil flows are being recalibrated: an increasing share of imports to India and other Asian countries is coming from Middle Eastern grades and resources from Africa and Latin America. Participants in the TEC market are preparing for a prolonged period of changes induced by the sanctions confrontation.
Oil Production and Supply: Risks and Forecasts
Fundamental indicators in the oil market are drawing keen attention. Global demand for oil in 2026 continues to grow and is estimated to potentially reach a record 106.5 million barrels per day (an increase of 1.4 million b/d from the previous year). However, supply-side limitations are becoming evident. In Europe, the largest oil field, Johan Sverdrup (Norway), has reached peak production and is beginning to decline output. According to Equinor's management, this year production at Sverdrup will decrease by 10-20%. With Norway emerging as the primary oil supplier to the EU after Russia's exit (accounting for up to 15% of the European market), the decline at this key North Sea field is alarming buyers. Experts note that the period of oversupply witnessed in recent years may shift to a deficit if the drop in output from older fields is not offset by new projects. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously indicated that approximately $540 billion needs to be invested annually in exploration and development of new oil and gas fields to offset natural output declines and meet growing demand.
Currently, OPEC+ countries are adhering to a cautious policy, maintaining a balanced market. Additional barrels could come onto the market should sanctions against Iran be successfully lifted—negotiations concerning the nuclear deal are precisely aimed at this. Meanwhile, the potential for rapid increase of supply from other regions is limited. US oil production, having reached record export levels following the implemetation of sanctions against Russia, may stabilise soon. Industry data indicate that American producers have already delivered significant gains over the past three years, and any further increase in exports encounters infrastructural and geological constraints. Thus, the issue of investment activity among oil companies is coming to the forefront—without investment in new projects in the coming years, the global market risks facing a supply deficit.
The Gas Market: European Winter and Global Trends
The natural gas market is also undergoing structural changes, reflecting a new reality of energy security. European countries are finishing the winter season with noticeably depleted storage: gas reserves in the EU fell to approximately 44% of total capacity by the end of January—one of the lowest levels in recent years. Nevertheless, gas prices in Europe remain relatively stable, without panic spikes. This stability can be attributed to mild weather, energy-saving measures, and crucially, record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. In 2025, Europe increased LNG purchases by approximately 30%, reaching an all-time high of over 175 billion cubic metres, compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia.
In early February, the European Union legally formalised its course towards a complete cessation of Russian gas purchases. New regulations were adopted requiring EU member states to prepare national plans to phase out Russian gas and diversify sources by March. In fact, by 2027, Europe aims to completely eliminate dependency on Russian pipeline gas and even LNG, effectively closing the door to the return of Russian fuel to its market. The volumes lost (estimated by the IEA to be around 33 billion cubic metres over the period 2025-2028) will be replaced primarily by increased imports of LNG from North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
The global gas market is preparing to support Europe and satisfy demand in Asia. World LNG production in 2026 is expected to rise by approximately 7%—the highest rate since 2019. New export terminals are being launched in the US, Canada, and Mexico, significantly increasing supply. Major importers in Asia, such as China, are also increasing purchases to support their economic recovery. As a result, despite the decreased European reserves this winter, traders do not anticipate acute fuel shortages: sufficient additional LNG shipments should be available to refill storage by summer. However, experts warn that Europe must not lose vigilance. To ensure a reliable passage through the next winter, the EU will need to actively replenish gas stocks, and price signals (such as the current "contango" price structure or levels of spot quotes) will influence the pace of stock replenishment. Nevertheless, presently, energy companies in the region are confident in their ability to secure energy systems through global gas supply and diversification efforts.
Coal and Energy Transition: Regional Differences
Oil and gas are not the only strategic resources undergoing changes. The coal industry is experiencing a stark contrast between regions amid the global energy transition. Europe is rapidly phasing out coal: Czech Republic completely ceased coal production as of 1 February 2026, closing its last mine after 250 years of operation. Now Poland remains the only country in Europe where industrial coal mining is still taking place. European energy companies are transitioning power plants to gas and renewables, with coal mines deemed unprofitable and depleted. The Czech decision was motivated by the fact that the national electricity grid is no longer dependent on coal, and mining costs exceed market prices by more than double. Meanwhile, outside of Europe, many countries continue to rely heavily on coal to ensure their energy security and electricity stability:
- China: Coal production in 2025 reached a record 4.83 billion tonnes. Coal still covers over half of China’s electricity needs. To avoid power shortages, Beijing is planning to build new coal-fired power plants by 2027, while simultaneously developing renewable energy sources.
- India: The government is expanding coal production while investing in renewables. State support measures have allowed the reopening of 32 previously closed mines, leading to increased output. The goal is to reach around 1.5 billion tonnes of coal per year and transition to exporting surplus fuel. Coal is also helping to reduce energy imports and ensures the operation of power plants for grid stability.
- Japan: Approximately 30% of electricity generation in 2026 is provided by coal. Authorities officially designate coal-fired power plants as necessary to maintain energy system reliability—as a reserve in case of disruptions to solar and wind energy supply and to reduce dependence on expensive imported gas. Despite plans for gradual emission reductions, coal remains a strategic reserve for the Japanese economy.
- USA: After a long-term decline in coal's role, demand unexpectedly surged by around 8% in 2025. This was driven by high natural gas prices and increased energy consumption (for example, from data centres and other energy-intensive sectors). US authorities even temporarily suspended the decommissioning of old coal-fired power plants, and coal production gained momentum as part of the strategy to bolster energy independence.
Thus, the global energy balance in the coal sector varies considerably. While European fuel companies are hastening a transition away from coal to meet climate commitments, Asian economies and other countries continue to rely on this fuel type to address energy security issues. The shift to clean energy is uneven: regions rich in renewable resources are actively adopting green technologies, while others must maintain coal in their energy mix to ensure stable electricity supply and acceptable electricity prices.
Growth of Renewable Energy and Technological Trends
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to gain prominence in the global TEC, as evidenced by investment indicators. In particular, China is demonstrating unprecedented growth in the clean sector: new data reveals that over 90% of investment growth in the Chinese economy over the past year has been driven by the development of clean energy and electric transport. Production and export of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles generated approximately 15.4 trillion yuan in revenue for China in 2025—over a third of the country’s GDP growth. In fact, renewable energy and related high-tech industries have become a driver of economic development, compensating for the slowdown in the traditional industrial sector.
Similar trends are observed in other regions. Worldwide, governments are concluding new agreements on cooperation in RES, creating supply chains for hydrogen energy, and striving to secure access to critically important minerals (lithium, copper, rare earth elements) necessary for battery and electronics production. Energy companies are actively seeking opportunities to develop sources of these resources and are investing in raw material processing. Technological advancements are also opening new opportunities: efficient sodium batteries are emerging as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which could potentially reduce dependence on scarce lithium supplies. Interest in geothermal installations is growing within the energy generation sector—modern techniques allow the extraction of geothermal heat even in unconventional areas, and the application of artificial intelligence reduces risks during exploratory drilling. Several innovative geothermal projects are nearing commercial viability, indicating a diversification of clean energy directions.
Against the backdrop of rapid RES development, the task of integrating these sources into the energy system is becoming increasingly pressing. Countries are investing in energy storage systems and "smart" grids to balance the uneven output of solar and wind facilities. For instance, excess solar and wind generation in China is planned to be directed towards producing "green" hydrogen, which can then serve as an energy carrier or raw material in industry. Such projects, alongside achievements in battery and hydrogen technologies, are attracting global investor attention. Energy and oil companies worldwide are increasingly engaging in green initiatives, striving to adapt to the changing energy demand structure. Consequently, renewable energy is no longer niche: it is evolving into a full-fledged sector of the economy, creating jobs, stimulating innovation, and enabling reductions in the carbon footprint of energy.
International Deals and Corporate Initiatives in Energy
Major energy and fuel companies continue to forge partnerships to strengthen their positions in the global market. This week saw a notable agreement in the oil and gas sector: the Turkish national oil company TPAO signed a memorandum of understanding with American oil giant Chevron. The parties intend to jointly explore opportunities for oil and gas exploration and production both in Turkey and abroad. According to Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, this collaboration aims to support the development of new projects—from the Gabar field in Turkey to initiatives in the Black Sea—and transform TPAO into a global company. Earlier, in January, TPAO entered a similar agreement with ExxonMobil for the search for oil and gas on the continental shelf of the Black and Mediterranean Seas. These deals reflect the overall warming of relations between Ankara and Washington as well as Turkey's strategy to reduce its near-total dependence on energy imports. By expanding TPAO's activities abroad and attracting international expertise, Turkey is steadily moving towards enhancing its own energy security.
Other countries are also placing bets on partnerships. In the context of energy transition and geopolitical instability, joint projects allow risks to be shared and investments to be attracted. Middle Eastern countries continue to collaborate with Asian consumers on LNG and oil projects, and long-term contracts for energy supplies are being drawn up. Simultaneously, companies across various segments—from oil and gas to electricity—are uniting to develop electric vehicle charging infrastructure, carbon capture projects, and other promising directions. For instance, in the nuclear energy sector, Rosatom is actively participating in international forums and entering into new agreements for reactor construction (including nuclear power plant projects in Egypt and other countries), facilitating the export of Russian technologies and workload for its facilities. Wind and solar companies are forming consortia to develop offshore RES parks, while transnational energy corporations are investing in energy storage startups.
The global energy market is expansive, and close cooperation between companies from different countries is increasingly becoming the norm. For investors, this is a signal that the industry is striving for sustainability through diversification and technology exchange. International deals, whether in oil, gas, electricity, or RES, are helping to strengthen supply chains and prepare for future challenges. Ultimately, global energy security increasingly relies on collaborative efforts rather than isolated actions from individual states or companies.
